Cold Snap this weekend coming 23 Sept????

[David]

I see Chch meteorogram now has 500mb thickness at 532? Thar's not low enough I suppose.
And weatherzone only predict the snow level to 1400m? Must surely be down to 500m for this event now.

[mkII_grande]

Again I have to ask you ladies why you're even here? WE WANT SNOW! Why be so pessimistic about it when the snow is coming to a ski field near you!!!!

[David]

Again I have to ask you ladies why you're even here? WE WANT SNOW! Why be so pessimistic about it when the snow is coming to a ski field near you!!!!

Are you hoping for snow in the northern fields? I wouldn't have thought the cold change would carry its strength as it penetrated northward up the country, and the bulk of snow would go to the S island. My best bets are some snow on the southern skifields and maybe on the canterbury ones.

[Inny Binny]

I was completely optimistic for the whole time, but this jumped to such a useless forecast when it was only 3 days away!

That's just incredibly disappointing...but of course not surprising.

[David]

That's just incredibly disappointing...but of course not surprising.

Yes and the thunderstorm threat originally looming for this week Monday - Thursday has lowered too, now only Monday and Tuesday look good.
Wait! Just seen this...actually I'll post in allocated topic

[mkII_grande]

Again I have to ask you ladies why you're even here? WE WANT SNOW! Why be so pessimistic about it when the snow is coming to a ski field near you!!!!

Are you hoping for snow in the northern fields? I wouldn't have thought the cold change would carry its strength as it penetrated northward up the country, and the bulk of snow would go to the S island. My best bets are some snow on the southern skifields and maybe on the canterbury ones.

Hi, yes some snow up here would be a bonus but they already have an excellent snow base and I'm heading there soon but I am also going to hit the south island fields later in october---that's how i know we will see lots and lots of snow from this weather event!!!

[David]

Hi, yes some snow up here would be a bonus but they already have an excellent snow base and I'm heading there soon but I am also going to hit the south island fields later in october---that's how i know we will see lots and lots of snow from this weather event!!!

Yes Whakapapa has a good snow base at the moment at 185cm, and some snow icons for Monday and Tuesday.

You're heading to the S island fields in late October, if the weather patterns remain the way they have been over about the last month, with southerly periods bringing snow to higher elevations, you should be in luck...

Apparently the NZ ski season lasts to early November, but with a slightly warmer Winter this year and the lack of snow events, late October may be pushing it if the temperatures over NZ continue to rise (obviously they will because we are heading towards summer, but in recent years Octobers have not been much warmer than September - well at least in Auckland anyway).

[Andrew Massie]

Again I have to ask you ladies why you're even here? WE WANT SNOW! Why be so pessimistic about it when the snow is coming to a ski field near you!!!!

I'm here for the following:

1: To learn more about weather in general from meteorologists and enthusiasts.
2: To associate and discuss ideas with intelligent, like minded people.
3: To be part of a group that chases thunderstorms, hail, funnel clouds, tornadoes, and other extreme weather events.
4: To be disassociated from people who obsess about things like powder, boards, 720s, lattes, and how nithe their latetht thski thuit lookth.

I hear there's a nice ski forum somewhere.. Southernthrash is the person to talk to about that.

[Lawrence]

Problem with the forthcoming polar outbreak is that the air doesn't look like its going to be overly unstable. The high builds in quickly, hence snow falls are likely to be light, to about 400 or 500m Tuesday.

Bugger, that high killed it. Yeah, charts are not so good now,might only get some very light low level snow near Dunedin at this rate and that might disappear over the next few days.Oh well, thats weather for you.

[Inny Binny]

The only hope we have left to cling to is this:

By Blue Skies Weather & Climate Services Ltd

Situation
A trough of low pressure will move across the Tasman Sea during the day and over the country today. From tomorrow several troughs are forecast to move over the North Island, while a cold southeasterly airflow blows over the South Island for most of the week, very cold for a time mid week. A ridge of high pressure should spread over New Zealand on Thursday moving away on Friday with a strengthening northerly airflow.

Snow Forecast for Canterbury High Country :
A long spell of cold, dull, southeasterly weather is expected from Sunday through to Thursday. Until Monday night snow showers should remain above 1000m.

The air of Canterbury will become very cold during Tuesday. Showers are expected to spread over the region from the south during Tuesday afternoon and evening, clearing from South Canterbury later on Wednesday, but not from Mid and North Canterbury until early Thursday. As the falls will be showery, heavy accumulations are not expected.

Expect snow showers developing to near sea level in South Canterbury on Tuesday afternoon and elsewhere on Tuesday evening, continuing through most of Wednesday. Over about 36 hours accumulations of 5-10cm are likely above 500m, and 3-5cm above 200m. Banks Peninsula could see 5-10cm down to 200m. There may be small accumulations of 1-3cm to sea level in most parts of the region.

Southerly winds will be fresh to strong on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with severe wind chill temperatures for the time of year.



*sigh*

[southernthrash]

Again I have to ask you ladies why you're even here? WE WANT SNOW! Why be so pessimistic about it when the snow is coming to a ski field near you!!!!

I'm here for the following:

1: To learn more about weather in general from meteorologists and enthusiasts.
2: To associate and discuss ideas with intelligent, like minded people.
3: To be part of a group that chases thunderstorms, hail, funnel clouds, tornadoes, and other extreme weather events.
4: To be disassociated from people who obsess about things like powder, boards, 720s, lattes, and how nithe their latetht thski thuit lookth.

I hear there's a nice ski forum somewhere.. Southernthrash is the person to talk to about that.

ha ha... ha. clueless.

[TonyT]

The only hope we have left to cling to is this:

By Blue Skies Weather & Climate Services Ltd

Situation
A trough of low pressure will move across the Tasman Sea during the day and over the country today. From tomorrow several troughs are forecast to move over the North Island, while a cold southeasterly airflow blows over the South Island for most of the week, very cold for a time mid week. A ridge of high pressure should spread over New Zealand on Thursday moving away on Friday with a strengthening northerly airflow.

Snow Forecast for Canterbury High Country :
A long spell of cold, dull, southeasterly weather is expected from Sunday through to Thursday. Until Monday night snow showers should remain above 1000m.

The air of Canterbury will become very cold during Tuesday. Showers are expected to spread over the region from the south during Tuesday afternoon and evening, clearing from South Canterbury later on Wednesday, but not from Mid and North Canterbury until early Thursday. As the falls will be showery, heavy accumulations are not expected.

Expect snow showers developing to near sea level in South Canterbury on Tuesday afternoon and elsewhere on Tuesday evening, continuing through most of Wednesday. Over about 36 hours accumulations of 5-10cm are likely above 500m, and 3-5cm above 200m. Banks Peninsula could see 5-10cm down to 200m. There may be small accumulations of 1-3cm to sea level in most parts of the region.

Southerly winds will be fresh to strong on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with severe wind chill temperatures for the time of year.



*sigh*

You left the date off! Thats Saturday morning's issue, today's one is not nearly so optimistic!

[Inny Binny]

woops...

EDIT: Well at least Blue Skies are a little more optimistic than Metservice...

[RWood]

Optimistic?? If I never saw another cold outbreak in my entire life I'd be very pleased. Any novelty value in such events has long since worn off for me.

[Michael]

I wouldnt mind to see snow perhaps lightning but not just 8/8 SW and showers(thats all it means here) otherwise summer can come quicker

Optimistic?? If I never saw another cold outbreak in my entire life I'd be very pleased. Any novelty value in such events has long since worn off for me.

[David]

If I never saw another cold outbreak in my entire life I'd be very pleased. Any novelty value in such events has long since worn off for me.

The coldest it ever gets in winter here is about -1 and the coldest day about 9-10C
I've noticed Wellington gets very cold weather in Winter as well, sometimes gale S with highs of 7 or temps of 4 in the day must take the wind chill well under 0 during cold outbreaks.

Do you know how many times it has snowed to sea level in Wellington RWood?
I know it snowed once in Auckland in 1939 to sea level but unfortunately global warming will mean that is almost certain to never happen ever again

[southernthrash]

1939, glorious year for NZ snowfall, flurries reported at cape reinga, and the southland rugby team played a home game, during which a foot of snow fell and the field markings had to be continually shovelled clear of snow. Many accounts of farm fences throughout northern southland being completely buried for four consecutive weeks or more... crazy stuff, such an extended cold period with that amount of precipitation would be most impressive.

[David]

I have read somewhere that global warming not only produces a rise in temperatures longterm, but that it will likely result in greater deviations from normal climatic conditions and more extremes. My point in this being that NZ could still see some periods of severe cold with much snow (except that overall most winters will be warmer than the present norm)

[RWood]

If I never saw another cold outbreak in my entire life I'd be very pleased. Any novelty value in such events has long since worn off for me.

The coldest it ever gets in winter here is about -1 and the coldest day about 9-10C
I've noticed Wellington gets very cold weather in Winter as well, sometimes gale S with highs of 7 or temps of 4 in the day must take the wind chill well under 0 during cold outbreaks.

Do you know how many times it has snowed to sea level in Wellington RWood?
I know it snowed once in Auckland in 1939 to sea level but unfortunately global warming will mean that is almost certain to never happen ever again

I'm not sure about sea-level events in W'gton, only flurries on higher ground. The outbreaks of the type you mention are certainly less common than they used to be. Humans being what they are, they adapt to slightly milder conditions and complain more loudly now than they used to, in my experience here. But I don't mind a cold event if it's not accompanied by rain and strong winds. A very cool SW flow with clear skies and light winds is fine.

I've heard Ereck Brenstrum of MetService talking about the 1939 events. The chance of that kind of thing recurring (on the nationwide scale that applied that month) in the near future is low in his opinion, as I recall. It was a cyclonic month with very low MSLPs and a very cold Tasman Sea.

[mikestormchaser]

meh, I aint getting my hopes up on this event at all, from my last look at the models again there doesn't appear to me that there is enough moisture around witch doesn't help things. so nope sorry

[Lawrence]

I'm still not sure about this and having to wait for updated data, look at this chart from metservice,the lows in the right place, the front coming up from the south,it all just looks like a classic snow event to me, but other factors tell me it's not.
It's driving me crazy.I have to wait now till 20:00 hrs to get the next lot of data. AGHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

[Michael]

Daylight saving time starts next week and as in previous years should bring these cold snaps

[Thunder]

LOL, yeth....stupendouth there andrew.

Again I have to ask you ladies why you're even here? WE WANT SNOW! Why be so pessimistic about it when the snow is coming to a ski field near you!!!!

I'm here for the following:

1: To learn more about weather in general from meteorologists and enthusiasts.
2: To associate and discuss ideas with intelligent, like minded people.
3: To be part of a group that chases thunderstorms, hail, funnel clouds, tornadoes, and other extreme weather events.
4: To be disassociated from people who obsess about things like powder, boards, 720s, lattes, and how nithe their latetht thski thuit lookth.

I hear there's a nice ski forum somewhere.. Southernthrash is the person to talk to about that.

[southernthrash]

I have read somewhere that global warming not only produces a rise in temperatures longterm, but that it will likely result in greater deviations from normal climatic conditions and more extremes. My point in this being that NZ could still see some periods of severe cold with much snow (except that overall most winters will be warmer than the present norm)

Current research and thinking suggests that colder currents up the south east of NZ from Antarctica will grow stronger with higher amounts of cold heavy antarctic meltwater pushing further north. This would probably cause significant cooling in at least the southern half of the south island, if the influence of these cold currents increases enough to break down the Southland current (which supplies warm water from the Tasman to the south coast, flowing through Foveaux Strait and around the south coast of Otago, and is also the reason why central coastal Southland (Invercargill and surrounds) sees significant sea level snow much less frequently than coastal Otago and Canterbury), then the south of the south island could get MUCH MUCH colder, especially in winter, a bit of work in this area is being done at the moment. This would make winter Southern Ocean lows VERY interesting...

[David]

Thats very interesting southernthrash, I haven't heard of that before, according to niwa most parts of nz would warm up due to climate change.