Cold Snap this weekend coming 23 Sept????

[Razor]

Well metvuw is sure looking interesting....a late season top up for the southern skifields perhaps? Watching this development with interest

[Lawrence]

They certainly need it,bit late now though according to Press "Canterbury's cruel ski season has come to an early close for many of the region's skifields".Which reminds me we hav'nt heard any comments from Todd The Troll (AKA Southernthrash)lately.Bet he's a bit upset.

[mikestormchaser]

Watching out for thunderstorms this weekend! sat arvo, evening, could be a classic change of the seasons storm!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Watching out for thunderstorms this weekend! sat arvo, evening, could be a classic change of the seasons storm!

Yes, it looks quite potential this WE, this depending on timing.
Too early yet to start my thunderstorm potential chart again, but I'll look into it tomorrow

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Razor]

Models look to have backed off the cold snap now. Looks like a prolonged spell of North Easterlies for Canterbury now

[spwill]

Models look to have backed off the cold snap now

This far out just follow the trend.
Southerly rain and snow on the hills( for the South) looks on the cards for the early part of next week.

[southernthrash]

They certainly need it,bit late now though according to Press "Canterbury's cruel ski season has come to an early close for many of the region's skifields".Which reminds me we hav'nt heard any comments from Todd The Troll (AKA Southernthrash)lately.Bet he's a bit upset.

haha, can't beat negativity in the press huh? All good though, keeps the punters away. Funnily enough, I've been keeping myself rather busy lately by..... snowboarding! Even had a day building kickers up in the lammerlaws in the weekend, some very impressive drifts up there this year.

Yea, maybe a top up for the skifields, anything's good at this stage in the season, though it's getting mighty close to wakeboarding time!

[mkII_grande]

Hi all, what are the chances for snow in the lower South Island in the weekend? Also can publishing facts honestly be labelled negativity?

[Lawrence]

Hi all, what are the chances for snow in the lower South Island in the weekend?

Possibility of snow for the skifields on Sunday,but better on Wednesday when there should be a good topup,but now i've said that, the models will change and it won't get there till Thursday.

[Lawrence]

Even had a day building kickers up in the lammerlaws in the weekend, some very impressive drifts up there this year.

I take it you dont mean Lammerlaws in Burntisland, Scotland.I remember the Swimming Pool there in Lammerlaws Road
and getting well oiled at the Crown Tavern. Have they got a Lammerlaws here as well?

[southernthrash]

Even had a day building kickers up in the lammerlaws in the weekend, some very impressive drifts up there this year.

I take it you dont mean Lammerlaws in Burntisland, Scotland.I remember the Swimming Pool there in Lammerlaws Road
and getting well oiled at the Crown Tavern. Have they got a Lammerlaws here as well?

lammerlaws in otago, about an hour by road out of dunedin, sort of sandwiched between coastal and central otago, open rolling tops create a plateau around 1100m, tend to get decent snow from the southeast, which is redistributed by the wind into (very) deeep drifts in steep sided gullies. As a result, going up there at this time of the year is quite neat, the tops and roads/tracks are snow free, but a short stroll down into the gullies and you will find plenty of white stuff. We dug a 2.5 m deep pit to get snow from for one jump, and still didn't seem to be approaching the bottom of the drift. Some of the steeper gullies hold drifts which exhibit semi-glacial activity, as they retreat late spring the ground deformation around the lower edges is quite amazing!

and yea, potentially looking good for a decent snow fall up high.

[mikestormchaser]

Models look to have backed off the cold snap now. Looks like a prolonged spell of North Easterlies for Canterbury now

and that surprises you does it?

[Storm Struck]

Still looking at possible thunderstorms along the windchange for Sunday, only thing will be the timing and enough daytime heating before hand .
A change like this for mid September I would think should support actual thunderstorms and not the typical wintry type thundery showers.
Anything to get rid of this anticyclonic crud , I see how coastal this cloud and drizzle is on the latest NOAA statelitte just confined to the coast through Pegasus bay.
Cheers.
Jason.

[tich]

Anything to get rid of this anticyclonic crud , I see how coastal this cloud and drizzle is on the latest NOAA statelitte just confined to the coast through Pegasus bay.

And Banks Peninsula - drizzly showers on and off all day out near Akaroa, but coming back to Chch late afternoon, rainshadow effect noticeable by lake Ellesmere.
Looks like 2 cold southerly outbreaks (2nd 1 middle next week) coming up according to some models.

[mkII_grande]

Hi all, what are the chances for snow in the lower South Island in the weekend?

Possibility of snow for the skifields on Sunday,but better on Wednesday when there should be a good topup,but now i've said that, the models will change and it won't get there till Thursday.

Hi, I hope you are right because I still want to go skiing this year before it's too late. I have been too busy with work to get any skiing time in yet. If we get lots of snow it will prolong the season and I'll be very happy!

[David]

Well, most of the country is well into spring now so any cold outbreak will probably just be a reminder of Winter but nothing colder then actual Winter temps themselves.
Been a bit of a dismal snow year for the country's ski fields this year, maybe there'll be some decent falls in 2008.

[NZstorm]

Doesn't look like much in the way of snow in the offering folks. Some light falls of the SI ski fields on Sunday. Most of the cold advection looks to stay south of the SI.

Looks like a break away upper cold pool will move northward into the Tasman Sea over the weekend and move across North Island Monday. This will be an interesting convective feature if it happens.

[David]

Looks like a break away upper cold pool will move northward into the Tasman Sea over the weekend and move across North Island Monday. This will be an interesting convective feature if it happens.

Been monitoring this development, one forecast model predicts Monday's upper air temps at 500mb to be -26C and LI to be -2, and also dewpoints around 13C which I think would be high enough. Also the rain expected on Saturday and Sunday from a northerly flow should provide some decent moisture. Does look interesting at this stage though.

[spwill]

Yes, colder air looks like it will stay south and east of the SI but it still looks interesting for the NorthIsland.

[Lawrence]

Looks like a break away upper cold pool will move northward into the Tasman Sea over the weekend and move across North Island Monday. This will be an interesting convective feature if it happens.

I think that pool of cold air that breaks away and moves north it looks likely to take up a near stationary position off the coast. Once established it could generate a series of upper cold fronts which may rotate across New Zealand. The overall effect is to produce a widespread area of cool,unstable air in which bands of cloud, showers and thundershowers occur. Along the deformation zone of the cold low, the enhanced vertical lift will thicken the cloud cover and will produce widespread precipitation. The deformation zone is where widespread and prolonged thunderstorm activity occurs.The possibillty of a strong system approaching from the west could force the cold low inland,in the form of a strong upper trough.

[jamie]

How good is Monday looking for the north island??? I really like what i see.

[Lawrence]

How good is Monday looking for the north island??? I really like what i see.

I am tempted to say at the presant time that the North Island is in for a significant weather event about Tuesday. But it's a bit early yet to tell,cut off lows can be quite unpredictable and it depends on many other factors, either way whatever happens there may be quite a lot of preciptation to warning levels and a good light show. And it won't be as warm as it has been.Stay tuned to this forum.

[David]

I think that pool of cold air that breaks away and moves north it looks likely to take up a near stationary position off the coast. Once established it could generate a series of upper cold fronts which may rotate across New Zealand. The overall effect is to produce a widespread area of cool,unstable air in which bands of cloud, showers and thundershowers occur. Along the deformation zone of the cold low, the enhanced vertical lift will thicken the cloud cover and will produce widespread precipitation. The deformation zone is where widespread and prolonged thunderstorm activity occurs.The possibillty of a strong system approaching from the west could force the cold low inland,in the form of a strong upper trough.

Wow! That was well said, now we just have to see if you're right

[David]

A bit far ahead but Tuesday and especially Wednesday are looking unstable as well.

and thursday...

[Storm Struck]

Yes looks like an event for the north island and one to watch , while we suffer with pitaful showers bring on summer .
I want a good thunderstorm to go rumbling overhead, last one we had like that was back in 2004 bring on the southerly busters, roll clouds.
Cheers
Jason.