Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
Most models still looking sure of this scenario for cold upper atmosphere, but how come metservice only mention few showers in the outlook for next week?
Are they not expecting anything? That would be disappointing.
Are they not expecting anything? That would be disappointing.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
Met Service generaly don't put much detail in their long range forecasts.metservice only mention few showers in the outlook for next week?
Looking like the cold pool will cross Northland Monday with a high risk of thunderstorms/hail there. Not sure about Auckland at this stage. Looks like the best of the instability on Monday will roll over the top of us.
-
- Posts: 9919
- Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
- Location: Mt Eden Auckland
- Has thanked: 854 times
- Been thanked: 869 times
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
Blue skies do this much better (at fencePost)Met Service generaly don't put much detail in their long range forecasts.
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
Would like to have a look on there... but the internet is so slow I cannot get anywhere on that sitespwill wrote:Blue skies do this much better (at fencePost)
Very annoyed now, first I tried to open my tipping bucket rain gauge earlier (turn the funnel clockwise) and then the funnel was jammed so I spent two minutes twisting and forcefully trying to turn it, and then it finally came open. The most annoying part was the ten tips recorded
What a way to start the holidays, the weather better offer something good soon.
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
Metvuw charts suggesting a depression may move down over the north island from the north next friday, with rain and wind. Bit far out right now so would not be very accurate. The US-7day models on weatherzone also predict similar.
Upper air temps still looking to be cold from Monday
Upper air temps still looking to be cold from Monday
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
Auckland meteorogram seems good at the moment.
CAPE looks to rise, as well as lifted index, 500mb temps set to fall, and I don't know what convective inhibition is if anyone can help me there.
Good amount of precipitation there too, 69mm.
Looking good
CAPE looks to rise, as well as lifted index, 500mb temps set to fall, and I don't know what convective inhibition is if anyone can help me there.
Good amount of precipitation there too, 69mm.
Looking good
Last edited by David on Sat 22/09/2007 12:54, edited 1 time in total.
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
Metservice don't seem to be expected much from this. Maybe there is some limiting conditions, i.e one factor preventing much activity from happening. You'd think that if there were going to be some nice thunderstorms Met service would have picked that up. Hopefully I'm wrong, but usually with things like these something limits the atmospheric activity and the potential for what may have happened is often just what it says, a 'potential'.
Last edited by David on Sun 23/09/2007 08:11, edited 1 time in total.
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
I deleted the metvuw image I posted as it dramatically changed and showed an anticyclone instead.
(another reason not to trust forecasts beyond the next 2-3 days)
500mb temps for later this week for Auckland, around -32 for a time
(another reason not to trust forecasts beyond the next 2-3 days)
500mb temps for later this week for Auckland, around -32 for a time
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
Warm this morning at 16C right now, but the sky is 8/8 with cloud cover. It is clears we may get some convection occurring.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
Yes, but possibly more cloud cover today.It is clears we may get some convection
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
From Metservice:
Valid to: 12:00 am 24 Sep 2007 NZST
Issued at: 9:23 am 23 Sep 2007 NZST
A frontal wave is expected to move down over the upper and central North Island through the period destabilising the atmosphere. Some cooling aloft, an injection of low level moisture and daytime heating, combine to give a moderate risk of thunderstorms over southern Northland, Auckland,Coromandel Peninsula Waikato and Waitomo and parts of Taumarunui. These storms could give rainfall rates in the 10-25mm/hr range and some small hail. There is a lower risk of thunderstorms in a wider envelope from central Northland over to eastern Bay of Plenty and as far south as northern Manawatu. The risk in Bay of Plenty comes in the evening and at night.
There is also a low risk of thunderstorms along the South Island west coast from about Hokitika to northwest Nelson.
Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection is expected.
Great! Was not expecting much activity over the Auckland area today, but it seems the main area of focus has shifted south than from where it was expected to be. Cloud breaking now so we should get some good heating here today. Just as long as the current northeasterly does not pick up any more...
Valid to: 12:00 am 24 Sep 2007 NZST
Issued at: 9:23 am 23 Sep 2007 NZST
A frontal wave is expected to move down over the upper and central North Island through the period destabilising the atmosphere. Some cooling aloft, an injection of low level moisture and daytime heating, combine to give a moderate risk of thunderstorms over southern Northland, Auckland,Coromandel Peninsula Waikato and Waitomo and parts of Taumarunui. These storms could give rainfall rates in the 10-25mm/hr range and some small hail. There is a lower risk of thunderstorms in a wider envelope from central Northland over to eastern Bay of Plenty and as far south as northern Manawatu. The risk in Bay of Plenty comes in the evening and at night.
There is also a low risk of thunderstorms along the South Island west coast from about Hokitika to northwest Nelson.
Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection is expected.
Great! Was not expecting much activity over the Auckland area today, but it seems the main area of focus has shifted south than from where it was expected to be. Cloud breaking now so we should get some good heating here today. Just as long as the current northeasterly does not pick up any more...
-
- Posts: 692
- Joined: Tue 20/01/2004 13:22
- Location: Waitakere City - Westie!!
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
This grotty cloud will have to burn off first. The heating component would be very important at this time of year one would have thought.
Still tho, metservice increased their risk from low to moderate in the last 24hrs
Still tho, metservice increased their risk from low to moderate in the last 24hrs
-
- Posts: 9919
- Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
- Location: Mt Eden Auckland
- Has thanked: 854 times
- Been thanked: 869 times
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
Nice to wake up to 19C, dewpoints 15C.
Low cloud will burn away like yesterday .
Low cloud will burn away like yesterday .
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
Must be some low level moisture, saw on my walk that the distant sky tower had the section above the viewing platform hidden behind cloud. Sunshine getting through now and temps warming, but the cumulus around only looks to be the 'humilis' or 'fair weather' type with a few at the mediocris stage at the mo, would have expected some stronger development to have been occuring at this point of the day.
Also moderate risk tomorrow for thunderstorms
And spwill! You only just woke up!
Also moderate risk tomorrow for thunderstorms
And spwill! You only just woke up!
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
Doesn't that mean that the updraught in the cloud is strong enough to enhance coalescence and support larger rain drops?
This also meaning once a cb becomes glaciated that the cloud can allow hail to develop?
This also meaning once a cb becomes glaciated that the cloud can allow hail to develop?
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
heavy rain now developing over the waitakere ranges....but moving out into the tasman...but it looks to be back building a bit
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
I'd say the clouds have alot more developing to do before they yield heavy rain and thunderstorms around auckland, the one you're referring to Brian must be an isolated one. Spitty rain drops here but skies clouding over now.
Here's the best i've seen, taken at 1.30:
Here's the best i've seen, taken at 1.30:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
- Posts: 9919
- Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
- Location: Mt Eden Auckland
- Has thanked: 854 times
- Been thanked: 869 times
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
Low cloud has cleared however medium level cloud and some light rain has moved in from the north killing convection for now. This cloud sheet may have moved through by mid afternoon but I think the thunder chances today are now a dead duck.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
Looks like we have ended up with persistent rain this afternoon rather than scattered showers. That warm front has become more active as it has drifted south into our area.
-
- Posts: 417
- Joined: Mon 24/04/2006 19:32
- Location: New Lynn West, Auckland
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
Whats going on out there guys??? What happened to our thunderstorms ???????
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
No lightning strikes but a few heavy showers in central northland by the looks of the rain radar. A fizzer today.Cameo1 wrote:Whats going on out there guys??? What happened to our thunderstorms ???????
Edit at 4.43
I thought I heard thunder but the lightning tracker did not pick up anything so it must have been a plane
-
- Posts: 417
- Joined: Mon 24/04/2006 19:32
- Location: New Lynn West, Auckland
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
oh darn I hate it when that happens, though its usually trucks that do it to me lol:D
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 418 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Unstable over NI 22nd-27th
I see Brian's station at graham's beach reported 16mm in an hour
Must have slowed and intensified over his area, considering the 5pm radar showed nothing spectacular.
Should be some more shower activity over Auckland later this evening.
Must have slowed and intensified over his area, considering the 5pm radar showed nothing spectacular.
Should be some more shower activity over Auckland later this evening.