Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

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Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I see ECMWF have the possibily of a huge trough with some low pressures cells moving into the south Tasman Sea next WE.This preceded by a rather warm spell with a high to the east of NZ ridging back to the the top of NZ.
This may produce some NW Gales over NZ from about the middle of next week and some cold SW changes, which could come over Canterbury producing the odd thunderstorm with hail.
I hope the models don't change and I await with interest :)

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Re: Huge Trough

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Bring on the storms John! and big ones at that, get the storm adrenalin rush going through for this season :D
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Re: Huge Trough

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

tornadoman18 wrote:Bring on the storms John! and big ones at that, get the storm adrenalin rush going through for this season :D
There could be a possibility of an onshore conponent which could enhance a thunderstorm development with a SW or southerly change, this depending on timing :)
Just wait and see. :)

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Re: Huge Trough

Unread post by David »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Just wait and see. :)
Waiting is the hard part...
And then having the weather not deliver is horrible :(
But occasionally, just occasionally, one will be rewarded for their patient waiting.
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Re: Huge Trough

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

David wrote:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Just wait and see. :)
Waiting is the hard part...
And then having the weather not deliver is horrible :(
But occasionally, just occasionally, one will be rewarded for their patient waiting.
Gosh, David, what are you trying to say?!!

I'll be watching with interest, and review Monday night for a potential chase Tuesday.. Charging camera batteries!
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Re: Huge Trough

Unread post by David »

Andrew Massie wrote: Gosh, David, what are you trying to say?!!
I am saying if you wait patiently then you may just get what you hoped for (i.e Cantabrians and their precious thunderstorms), which is also maybe why it doesn't seem to snow much in the SI anymore ;)
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Re: Huge Trough

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

David wrote:
Andrew Massie wrote: Gosh, David, what are you trying to say?!!
I am saying if you wait patiently then you may just get what you hoped for (i.e Cantabrians and their precious thunderstorms), which is also maybe why it doesn't seem to snow much in the SI anymore ;)
SO true!!!!!! =D>
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Re: Huge Trough

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Still looking good but now the interesting stuff looks more likely into next week, with the sound of thunder still a high possibilty here in Canterbury :)

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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Now developing into an October Spring westerly scenario. Lots of westerly componets, which should produce thunder :)

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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by David »

You should try living in Uganda John, say for about a year. I think you would greatly enjoy it apart from the living condition. :)
Go to Tororo, the most thunderous place on Earth, which from 1967-1976 had 251 thunder days each year on average. :shock:
Once trying you could decide whether you want to live there. ;)
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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

David wrote:You should try living in Uganda John, say for about a year. I think you would greatly enjoy it apart from the living condition. :)
Go to Tororo, the most thunderous place on Earth, which from 1967-1976 had 251 thunder days each year on average. :shock:
Once trying you could decide whether you want to live there. ;)
I'd hate to live there, rather be like a Michael and complain about the lack of thunderstorms here, sadly.
That's what life is like when you get to 54, sadly :)
Bring on the boring weather :?

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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

I thought Florida was the lightning capital of the world?
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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by David »

Andrew Massie wrote:I thought Florida was the lightning capital of the world?
Just googled it: :)
Florida is known as the lightning capital of the United States, with storms occurring approximately 100 days out of the year
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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

Fair enough! Uganda wins!

I was party to a Florida TS, and it formed from nothing in about half an hour and they had to close all the Disneyworld rides for an hour while it was happening! Damn impressive!

Just as an aside, when I went to Kennedy Space Center, they informed me on the tour that on two occasions now, the vehicle assembly building has formed clouds inside and rained. Online, there are comflicting accounts. That was back in 1997.

See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_Assembly_Building
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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by Michael »

Boring!
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Now developing into an October Spring westerly scenario. Lots of westerly componets, which should produce thunder :)

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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by David »

Michael wrote:Boring!
Michael is missing the south-westerlies...
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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks like a round of thunderstorms due along the West Coast over the weekend.
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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by David »

NZstorm wrote:Looks like a round of thunderstorms due along the West Coast over the weekend.
Yes and three GFS model forecasts I have looked are in general agreement that much rain will fall on the West Coast on Sunday, particularly in Fiordland.
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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by Storm Struck »

A wee way out but thunder looks to be on the cards for Monday here, would be a great start to October 8) .
Otherwise i am looking forward to these mild temps ahead, could well get into the early 20's by next week.
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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Now shaping up to be a back to the westerly scenario, typical for October weather.
I wonder if it will be like 1988?

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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Now shaping up to be a back to the westerly scenario, typical for October weather.
I wonder if it will be like 1988?

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It's funny you should mention 1988.. I remember the wx that year well, and I was only 14!

Around October that year my family went to Australia for the Bicentennial Air Show. We jumped on an Air NZ 767 and it was blowing so hard NW that the plane was rocking before we even went anywhere!
We took off and had to "do two orbits" of Chch so the pilot was happy that we were going to clear the severe Alps turbulence.
On the first orbit, we were over the Waimak mouth heading downwind, and we had a really bad loss of height, people were screaming, lockers were falling open etc., and once we headed for the Alps, I could see topsoil being blown off paddocks!
I think there was golfball sized hail while we were over there, too.
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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by RWood »

That was leading into a strong La Nina, not likely to be repeated this time - it was an exceptional month. I didn't mind the wind here as I was living in a sheltered spot at the time and the month was warm and dry (Ch'ch daily max were equivalent to midsummer). Not the kind of month for transAlpine flight, though, for sure. West Coast & Fiordland had torrents of rain (1967 mm at Milford) and exceptionally small amounts of sunshine.
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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

Right, yeah, that makes sense. My poor mother on that plane, she hates flying, but my brother and I (both teens then) were having a great time!
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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by Storm Struck »

The weather pattern after the westerly phase is looking interesting if it follows through 8).
In the meantime i am enjoying this warm spell which has already started with 16C currently and blue dome skies :) .
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Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Nice day with a breezy NE today here in cantab land.
Will be interested to see what happens this Monday/ Tuesday with storms and all! hope something comes up and rumbles big time! 8-[ 8) :lol:
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