Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
-
- Posts: 18488
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
I see ECMWF have the possibily of a huge trough with some low pressures cells moving into the south Tasman Sea next WE.This preceded by a rather warm spell with a high to the east of NZ ridging back to the the top of NZ.
This may produce some NW Gales over NZ from about the middle of next week and some cold SW changes, which could come over Canterbury producing the odd thunderstorm with hail.
I hope the models don't change and I await with interest
JohnGaul
NZTS
This may produce some NW Gales over NZ from about the middle of next week and some cold SW changes, which could come over Canterbury producing the odd thunderstorm with hail.
I hope the models don't change and I await with interest
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
-
- Posts: 2711
- Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
- Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
- Has thanked: 355 times
- Been thanked: 607 times
Re: Huge Trough
Bring on the storms John! and big ones at that, get the storm adrenalin rush going through for this season
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
Stormchasers.co.nz
-
- Posts: 18488
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
Re: Huge Trough
There could be a possibility of an onshore conponent which could enhance a thunderstorm development with a SW or southerly change, this depending on timingtornadoman18 wrote:Bring on the storms John! and big ones at that, get the storm adrenalin rush going through for this season
Just wait and see.
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
- David
- Posts: 7578
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 416 times
- Been thanked: 825 times
- Contact:
Re: Huge Trough
Waiting is the hard part...NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Just wait and see.
And then having the weather not deliver is horrible
But occasionally, just occasionally, one will be rewarded for their patient waiting.
-
- Posts: 1032
- Joined: Fri 10/03/2006 14:03
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Huge Trough
Gosh, David, what are you trying to say?!!David wrote:Waiting is the hard part...NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Just wait and see.
And then having the weather not deliver is horrible
But occasionally, just occasionally, one will be rewarded for their patient waiting.
I'll be watching with interest, and review Monday night for a potential chase Tuesday.. Charging camera batteries!
- David
- Posts: 7578
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 416 times
- Been thanked: 825 times
- Contact:
Re: Huge Trough
I am saying if you wait patiently then you may just get what you hoped for (i.e Cantabrians and their precious thunderstorms), which is also maybe why it doesn't seem to snow much in the SI anymoreAndrew Massie wrote: Gosh, David, what are you trying to say?!!
-
- Posts: 1032
- Joined: Fri 10/03/2006 14:03
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Huge Trough
SO true!!!!!!David wrote:I am saying if you wait patiently then you may just get what you hoped for (i.e Cantabrians and their precious thunderstorms), which is also maybe why it doesn't seem to snow much in the SI anymoreAndrew Massie wrote: Gosh, David, what are you trying to say?!!
-
- Posts: 18488
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
Re: Huge Trough
Still looking good but now the interesting stuff looks more likely into next week, with the sound of thunder still a high possibilty here in Canterbury
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
-
- Posts: 18488
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
Now developing into an October Spring westerly scenario. Lots of westerly componets, which should produce thunder
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
- David
- Posts: 7578
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 416 times
- Been thanked: 825 times
- Contact:
Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
You should try living in Uganda John, say for about a year. I think you would greatly enjoy it apart from the living condition.
Go to Tororo, the most thunderous place on Earth, which from 1967-1976 had 251 thunder days each year on average.
Once trying you could decide whether you want to live there.
Go to Tororo, the most thunderous place on Earth, which from 1967-1976 had 251 thunder days each year on average.
Once trying you could decide whether you want to live there.
-
- Posts: 18488
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
I'd hate to live there, rather be like a Michael and complain about the lack of thunderstorms here, sadly.David wrote:You should try living in Uganda John, say for about a year. I think you would greatly enjoy it apart from the living condition.
Go to Tororo, the most thunderous place on Earth, which from 1967-1976 had 251 thunder days each year on average.
Once trying you could decide whether you want to live there.
That's what life is like when you get to 54, sadly
Bring on the boring weather
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
-
- Posts: 1032
- Joined: Fri 10/03/2006 14:03
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- David
- Posts: 7578
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 416 times
- Been thanked: 825 times
- Contact:
Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
Just googled it:Andrew Massie wrote:I thought Florida was the lightning capital of the world?
Florida is known as the lightning capital of the United States, with storms occurring approximately 100 days out of the year
-
- Posts: 1032
- Joined: Fri 10/03/2006 14:03
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
Fair enough! Uganda wins!
I was party to a Florida TS, and it formed from nothing in about half an hour and they had to close all the Disneyworld rides for an hour while it was happening! Damn impressive!
Just as an aside, when I went to Kennedy Space Center, they informed me on the tour that on two occasions now, the vehicle assembly building has formed clouds inside and rained. Online, there are comflicting accounts. That was back in 1997.
See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_Assembly_Building
I was party to a Florida TS, and it formed from nothing in about half an hour and they had to close all the Disneyworld rides for an hour while it was happening! Damn impressive!
Just as an aside, when I went to Kennedy Space Center, they informed me on the tour that on two occasions now, the vehicle assembly building has formed clouds inside and rained. Online, there are comflicting accounts. That was back in 1997.
See here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_Assembly_Building
- Michael
- Posts: 7210
- Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
- Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 1 time
- Contact:
Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
Boring!
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Now developing into an October Spring westerly scenario. Lots of westerly componets, which should produce thunder
JohnGaul
NZTS
- David
- Posts: 7578
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 416 times
- Been thanked: 825 times
- Contact:
Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
Michael is missing the south-westerlies...Michael wrote:Boring!
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
Looks like a round of thunderstorms due along the West Coast over the weekend.
- David
- Posts: 7578
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 416 times
- Been thanked: 825 times
- Contact:
Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
Yes and three GFS model forecasts I have looked are in general agreement that much rain will fall on the West Coast on Sunday, particularly in Fiordland.NZstorm wrote:Looks like a round of thunderstorms due along the West Coast over the weekend.
- Storm Struck
- Posts: 4859
- Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
- Location: Belfast Christchurch
- Has thanked: 23 times
- Been thanked: 373 times
Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
A wee way out but thunder looks to be on the cards for Monday here, would be a great start to October .
Otherwise i am looking forward to these mild temps ahead, could well get into the early 20's by next week.
Cheers
Jason.
Otherwise i am looking forward to these mild temps ahead, could well get into the early 20's by next week.
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
-
- Posts: 18488
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
Now shaping up to be a back to the westerly scenario, typical for October weather.
I wonder if it will be like 1988?
JohnGaul
NZTS
I wonder if it will be like 1988?
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
-
- Posts: 1032
- Joined: Fri 10/03/2006 14:03
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
It's funny you should mention 1988.. I remember the wx that year well, and I was only 14!NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Now shaping up to be a back to the westerly scenario, typical for October weather.
I wonder if it will be like 1988?
JohnGaul
NZTS
Around October that year my family went to Australia for the Bicentennial Air Show. We jumped on an Air NZ 767 and it was blowing so hard NW that the plane was rocking before we even went anywhere!
We took off and had to "do two orbits" of Chch so the pilot was happy that we were going to clear the severe Alps turbulence.
On the first orbit, we were over the Waimak mouth heading downwind, and we had a really bad loss of height, people were screaming, lockers were falling open etc., and once we headed for the Alps, I could see topsoil being blown off paddocks!
I think there was golfball sized hail while we were over there, too.
-
- Posts: 3745
- Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
- Location: Wellington
- Has thanked: 188 times
- Been thanked: 123 times
Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
That was leading into a strong La Nina, not likely to be repeated this time - it was an exceptional month. I didn't mind the wind here as I was living in a sheltered spot at the time and the month was warm and dry (Ch'ch daily max were equivalent to midsummer). Not the kind of month for transAlpine flight, though, for sure. West Coast & Fiordland had torrents of rain (1967 mm at Milford) and exceptionally small amounts of sunshine.
-
- Posts: 1032
- Joined: Fri 10/03/2006 14:03
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
Right, yeah, that makes sense. My poor mother on that plane, she hates flying, but my brother and I (both teens then) were having a great time!
- Storm Struck
- Posts: 4859
- Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
- Location: Belfast Christchurch
- Has thanked: 23 times
- Been thanked: 373 times
Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
The weather pattern after the westerly phase is looking interesting if it follows through .
In the meantime i am enjoying this warm spell which has already started with 16C currently and blue dome skies .
Cheers
Jason.
In the meantime i am enjoying this warm spell which has already started with 16C currently and blue dome skies .
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
-
- Posts: 2711
- Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
- Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
- Has thanked: 355 times
- Been thanked: 607 times
Re: Spring Westerlies (was Huge Trough)
Nice day with a breezy NE today here in cantab land.
Will be interested to see what happens this Monday/ Tuesday with storms and all! hope something comes up and rumbles big time!
Will be interested to see what happens this Monday/ Tuesday with storms and all! hope something comes up and rumbles big time!
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
Stormchasers.co.nz