Thunderstorms 1st-3rd October

[spwill]

[quoteIsn't that the rainband expected to cross the North Island tonight though? - there's been no suggestion of more thunderstorms coming through by Metservice][/quote]

Ridge will reduce cloud depth here.
I think around the middle of next week is when we may see clouds deep enough for thunder here, time will tell.

[Philip Duncan]

Agree - air pressure is too high over most of th North Island - it's going to slaughter this front as it moves northwards.

Phil

[ricky]

Ridge will reduce cloud depth here.
I think around the middle of next week is when we may see clouds deep enough for thunder here, time will tell.

I agree.. From late next Tuesday the next upper trough should be moving through
GFS is suggesting some instability Sunday from higher surface temps and DPs as well but not too deep

[tich]

Had some gusty northwesterlies a short while ago. Up to 18C here, about 10C warmer than this time yesterday. Hasn't seem to have warmed up in the Alps though. I've heard it's been snowing heavily at Arthurs Pass, and Wanaka was only 3C at 1pm with recent precipitation. That's what seems to happen when a frontal system arrives from the west too soon after a cold outbreak.

[Storm Struck]

I expected to see a frost when i got up this morning, but it was actually quite mild on 12C at 7am.
Got very muggy as the fresh N-NE completly died off and some dark low level CU went blowing through overhead.
Then it turned NW not long after that, with a temperature increase .
Few spots of rain before spillover from the west, with some strong gusts from the N-NW at times.
Certainly interesting to see such a quick change from yesterday, as normally we would be under clear skies and light NE winds.
Cheers
Jason.

[Philip Duncan]

Looking at the latest radar and I'm very surprised at how intense this rain band is moving in to Auckland. Wondering if it's going to fall apart rapidly as it moves in to Waikato/Auckland.

I'm still learning about Thunderstorms in Auckland (they are incredibly hard to predict here)...certainly they favour nor'west to south east movement.

[David]

See the 9pm rain radar
Whoa!

[ricky]

Yes, ridge or no ridge that's one pretty mean looking front alright! and quite lightning active more to it's North -
I guess where the surface temps are highest, but there must be quite a sharp upper trough in there as well.. Police report some surface flooding around Wellington (Petone)
Looks set to hit Auckland around midnight

[jamie]

wow is that another colour within the red patch ?
I dont think i have ever seen rain of that intensity on the radar

[ricky]

wow is that another colour within the red patch ?
I dont think i have ever seen rain of that intensity on the radar

Yep thats getting towards the hail level of reflectivity which shows as white/green on those images..

[jamie]

dont we all wish it was coming in about 8hours earlyer with a bit of land heat put in the mix

[David]

Strange how my uploaded rain radar image seems much higher image quality than image shown on metservice's page. No complaints from me about it though.

[ricky]

10:45 radar image shows it looking considerably weakened already

[David]

10:45 radar image

How do you access that?
Are you on metservice's 'my weather plus' paid service?

[jamie]

Sky has a weather channel that has radar images updated every 15mins. If you have sky digital go to ch98.
Its a shame metservice dont do this on their website.

[Andrew Massie]

Yeah, MS says "Oh no, you have to pay for it!" Thought that's why I pay tax. IT'S JUST A BLOODY RAIN RADAR, METSERVICE. Let us peons have free full access to it!
They're obviously afraid that Blue Skies will increase it's forecasting percentage success rate even more higher than theirs.

[ricky]

Woken by some stronger wind gusts.. looks like the cold front is about to come through with some brief heavier rain...
windspeed, dew point and temp have been rising since midnight with some light warm frontal rain, now 14°C , DP 13°

[Manukau heads obs]

windy here last night too as the front came through (gusts to 45kts)
(did I not tell you the front would come on quickly Ricky, LOL) (because the ridge came on quickly it moved out just as quickly!)

[Storm Struck]

Nice and mild day again today NW gusts picked up abit before near gale force with the pine trees down the road roaring .
Take a look at some of the rain spilling over the alps on the latest rain radar 5pm, looks to be some quite heavy falls mixed in so maybe a thunderstorm .
Cheers
Jason.

[Inny Binny]

Wow, very very windy here at the moment, and starting to rain here as well. Still sunny and very mild.

Looks like something happening anyway.

[mikestormchaser]

Yeah man been howling through this part of town, NW has really picked up in the last hour, been fairly warm late this afternoon i must add.
Yeah few showers spilling off the alps now, i dont think any will be thundery

[Inny Binny]

Nah no thunder, but it must be pretty windy up there as there are still a few drops coming down and there's no clouds really near us.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Blue sky here with the recent rain now easing. An over throw from off the Alps carried across by the strong NW winds.
I noticed some lightning strikes from SG's recorder but no sferics picked up here

JohnGaul
NZTS

[David]

I noticed some lightning strikes from SG's recorder but no sferics picked up here

In all honesty why would would you want to listen to sferics when you can access a lightning tracker which can not only tell you an approximate distance of how far away each strike is but also the direction? Ain' it a bit ol' fashioned?

[tich]

Rain on radar suprisingly close to Chch, yet it's been clear over us. Strong winds pushing rain outwards from cloud?