Low crossing NZ Oct 10th-12th

[Inny Binny]

Very nice band of rain moving onto the top half of the NI as well.

[David]

Very nice band of rain moving onto the top half of the NI as well.

Bit of a narrow band but moving very slow so should last a good proportion of the evening/night

[jamie]

looks to be weakening alot as soon as it makes landfall though

[David]

Yeah but the point is it still looks fairly decent and very slow so should give definitely at least 10mm if not more.
Hopefully there might be some thunder behind the front but looking unlikely at this stage even though its warm and humid.

[Inny Binny]

Just heard on one weather that Farewell Spit has already had 118mm of rain.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Just heard on one weather that Farewell Spit has already had 118mm of rain.

Apparently they were going to get 143mm of rain but 25mm has been reserved to fall somewhere in Canterbury

Raining nicely here since about 1:30pm. Light southerly here and it should become more Sw as the low draws nearer

JohnGaul
NZTS

[David]

Originally northern NZ was predicted for the heavy rain - and now central NZ and Canterbury's stealing the show!
Hopefully the weekend will serve up more rain than this time.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

- and now central NZ and Canterbury's stealing the show!

About time too
I get sick and tired of Auckland 'stealing the show'

JohnGaul
NZTS

[David]

I get sick and tired of Auckland 'stealing the show'

Auckland has many more people to please though

[Inny Binny]

All we need now is a good thunderstorm sometime soon.

Steady light rain here for the last few hours.

[mikestormchaser]

Yes that low hasn't fully hit at all, steady rain falling here for the last hour or so, i just fertilized my lawn about an hour ago, best time to do it to in the rain
Should be nice to go to sleep hearing the rain tonight then!

cheers

[David]

i just fertilized my lawn about an hour ago

why fertilise the lawn? I thought the grass grows fast enough in spring anyway without the pampering

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

i just fertilized my lawn about an hour ago

why fertilise the lawn? I thought the grass grows fast enough in spring anyway without the pampering

Maybe he went out for a wee, or a dump

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Philip Duncan]

I have no idea why the MetService were forecasting "floods and slips" from the "bay of islands to the bay of plenty". Even on Monday this didn't look like a significant northern NZ event. The rain band that moved into northern NZ this arvo did look impressive but it was taking moisture from the north or NNW and so as soon as it hit Northland it ran out of fuel. Relatively light rain in Akld tonight although some heavy falls...glad it didnt arrive during rush hour. But did you see the low cloud this afternoon? The city looked SO weird. I took a photo of it, have a look: http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/anndetail.asp?annid=1264

Northern South Island and Wgtn will cop the worst of this low. But the weekend looks to be rough too.

Oh and even being a weather man doesnt mean you know when to fertilise your lawn...i did mine a month ago before a large band of rain was about to move in (which I forecast!) and we got about 1mm!!!!! Had to spend the next 2 hours watering the lawn to help the fertiliser sink in!! lol

[mikestormchaser]

[/quote]

Maybe he went out for a wee

JohnGaul
NZTS[/quote]

hmm i think that might kill the grass John

[David]

hmm i think that might kill the grass John

Really!? Well there's a lesson for some here (not me! )

[Wildland]

Rain still falling gently here at Tawa (10 p.m.), now up to 44mm since 1 a.m.
Reminds me of younger days in the East Coast high country at Arowhana, Mangatu or Waikaremoana in my mis-spent youth... just steady gentle rain, with low-ish cloud.
Time to wave this pesky low onward before the vege plot becomes a permanent water feature...
Go on, git!
Your turn Canty.... It's all yours!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Your turn Canty.... It's all yours!

Yes. We are being patient and taking what we are getting.
Its been raining since about 1pm here from light drizzle and a Ne but now the Ne has faded out and it was calm for much of the afternoon until some farmer lit a fire and then it was smoky from the south.
It's another one of those scenarios where the easterly systems have surface wind coming in from the SW???
I don't think the rain will become heavy but just persisent, just like there wont be strong winds from the SE. You DONT get those in Canterbury

JohnGaul
NZTS

[NZstorm]

The show is coming to an end with this trough folks. Next trough due at the weekend looks a goodie.

My convective prediction for today
Cooling upper air over the North island from a departing trough will lead to scattering of showers this afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible from eastern Northland to Coromandel ranges to central/western NI. Its a low risk, thought it worth a mention though.

[TokWW]

WxSim forecasting thunderstorms this afternoon...

Thunderstorms likely, some possibly severe. High 18, but temperatures falling in the afternoon.
Tonight: Rain very likely. Some thunder possible. Low 12.

Monday's forecast is similar profile - wet for a while yet in Sth Waikato...

Must empty my camera...

[NZstorm]

WxSim forecasting thunderstorms this afternoon...

What is WxSim?

[gllitz]

The low seems to have stalled just WNW of Nelson....? (based on latest sat loops)

[tich]

Wet day in Chch, but only about 20mm recorded so far - alot less than the 60-100mm warned about earlier. (heavy rain warning was lifted this morning)

[Willoughby]

A few glaciated Cb's going over north of here. Dew point is ~ 13C here.

[TokWW]

WxSim forecasting thunderstorms this afternoon...

What is WxSim?

View my site - US software using GFS data, local RAOB, airport metars etc plus local Wx Stn data to develope a local forecast. I am selecting the NOAA icons myself but it can be automated. I have reference to the software further down my site. It works well with Weather-Display software of Brian Hamilton.