Active trough and depression Oct 13th-15th
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- NZstorm
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Active trough and depression Oct 13th-15th
Next trough could be interesting if you live in the west and north of the country with a good chance of thunderstorms/hail/heavy rain/squalls given the quite cold upper air coming with it. I think Auckland may get some interesting weather off this one.
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Re: Active trough at the weekend.
What about the rest of the country? Will they miss out again? I hope not
JohnGaul
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- David
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Re: Active trough at the weekend.
Canterbury didn't really steal the show did theyNZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:What about the rest of the country? Will they miss out again? I hope not
Maybe some other time.
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Re: Active trough at the weekend.
http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... heroutlook
Whaddya know.
Turning out to be quite a wet month, this one.
We only got about thirty mm for this one, yes.
Whaddya know.
Turning out to be quite a wet month, this one.
We only got about thirty mm for this one, yes.
- David
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Re: Active trough at the weekend.
This next action is perfect timing. Everyone is usually annoyed at the rain and thunderstorms coming in the weekends, but secretly for us weather folk (except Michael) it could not have come at a better time. (then we can watch!)
- NZstorm
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Re: Active trough at the weekend.
That front coming through on Saturday is unlikely to have much in the way of thunderstorm action with it due to warmer upper air coming with it.
Later on Sunday is when the air will destablise (over Auckland) and should be quite squally with westerly winds.
Later on Sunday is when the air will destablise (over Auckland) and should be quite squally with westerly winds.
- Michael
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Re: Active trough at the weekend.
Next week is Labour weekend,Were 100% certain well get another trough then
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Re: Active trough at the weekend.
Wait and see.NZstorm wrote:That front coming through on Saturday is unlikely to have much in the way of thunderstorm action with it due to warmer upper air coming with it.
JohnGaul
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Re: Active trough at the weekend.
I've just decided this is the best post I've seen in this forum!David wrote:This next action is perfect timing. Everyone is usually annoyed at the rain and thunderstorms coming in the weekends, but secretly for us weather folk (except Michael) it could not have come at a better time. (then we can watch!)
Well done!
Ok, slight exaggeration.. but still a great comment!
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Re: Active trough and depression Oct 13th-14th
I'll be happy to just see the sun this weekend, never mind the wind. The wet, misty miserable scunge of the last 7-10 days made me feel as if I were living in the Scottish Highlands.
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Re: Active trough and depression Oct 13th-14th
Does anyone know the 500mb temp for today? The ogimet charts i use suggest quite a bit of warm air ahead of the front today which I would think would limit activity today???
Still tho m/s even have a weak tornado warning for today so we'll see
Still tho m/s even have a weak tornado warning for today so we'll see
- Michael
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Re: Active trough and depression Oct 13th-14th
you need to move to Alice Springs
RWood wrote:I'll be happy to just see the sun this weekend, never mind the wind. The wet, misty miserable scunge of the last 7-10 days made me feel as if I were living in the Scottish Highlands.
- TonyT
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Re: Active trough and depression Oct 13th-14th
Actually, YOU need to move Alice Springs Michael!Michael wrote:you need to move to Alice SpringsRWood wrote:I'll be happy to just see the sun this weekend, never mind the wind. The wet, misty miserable scunge of the last 7-10 days made me feel as if I were living in the Scottish Highlands.
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Re: Active trough and depression Oct 13th-14th
I believe Paris is very nice this time of year.
Nice day here now.
Nice day here now.
- David
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Re: Active trough and depression Oct 13th-14th
Couldn't have agreed more! Your profile Michael says you like high temps, sunshine and droughts - that is pretty much what Alice Springs is like forever!TonyT wrote:Actually, YOU need to move Alice Springs Michael!
My neighbours over in France for two weeks recently said it was lovely and warm T-shirt and shorts weather whereas here it poured, thundered, hailed, blew hard (what's new?)spwill wrote:I believe Paris is very nice this time of year.
- David
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Re: Active trough and depression Oct 13th-14th
Moderate risk of thunder and 20mm+ hail tomorrow afternoon!
Also possible wind gusts to 110kmh which could be quite damaging. Gusts were that strong in the July 10 storm - took down our fence and also blew the huge 100 year old macrocarpa in the reserve at the top of bleakhouse road over - left quite a crater and the ground attached to its roots stuck 4m up into the air! Lucky it fell in a SE storm as there were houses just 15m either side of where it stood. Been hacked up by residents now for firewood but the council has decided to leave the stump and trunk there as a 'feature'
Also possible wind gusts to 110kmh which could be quite damaging. Gusts were that strong in the July 10 storm - took down our fence and also blew the huge 100 year old macrocarpa in the reserve at the top of bleakhouse road over - left quite a crater and the ground attached to its roots stuck 4m up into the air! Lucky it fell in a SE storm as there were houses just 15m either side of where it stood. Been hacked up by residents now for firewood but the council has decided to leave the stump and trunk there as a 'feature'
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Re: Active trough and depression Oct 13th-14th
Hey guys, whats happening in the sky today? Whats the chances of something cool happening?
- Michael
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Re: Active trough and depression Oct 13th-14th
Weathers warmed up to a sunny balmy 20° with a light N
- Michael
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Re: Active trough and depression Oct 13th-14th
Its a dream,reality unfortunately is often waking up to whistling SW with leaves flying,windows buckling and condensation on windows,rain so you cant go outside to enjoy and 8/8 ,
David wrote:Couldn't have agreed more! Your profile Michael says you like high temps, sunshine and droughts - that is pretty much what Alice Springs is like forever!TonyT wrote:Actually, YOU need to move Alice Springs Michael!
- NZstorm
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Re: Active trough and depression Oct 13th-14th
The 500mb temperature is -15C at Whenuapai today which is in line with the modelling. Yes, thats too warm for thunderstorms for us today.
Tommorrow though looks promising for thunder/hail.
Tommorrow though looks promising for thunder/hail.
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Re: Active trough and depression Oct 13th-14th
awwwwwww
oh well never mind, I can do my essay now without any distractions
oh well never mind, I can do my essay now without any distractions
- David
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Re: Active trough and depression Oct 13th-14th
The upper atmosphere is set to cool though from now to when the front crosses isn't it?
As clouds come in here now the wind has really been picking up, gusting 40kmh often now. MS must be expecting very cold upper temps tomorrow with the mention of large hail as a moderate risk.
I see metvuw charts suggest a subtropical system to move down from the north next weekend, bringing much rain and maybe gale force winds. Just a possibility at this stage though.
As clouds come in here now the wind has really been picking up, gusting 40kmh often now. MS must be expecting very cold upper temps tomorrow with the mention of large hail as a moderate risk.
I see metvuw charts suggest a subtropical system to move down from the north next weekend, bringing much rain and maybe gale force winds. Just a possibility at this stage though.
Last edited by David on Sat 13/10/2007 14:43, edited 1 time in total.
- Willoughby
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Re: Active trough and depression Oct 13th-14th
Personally I think it looks good for thunderstorms later on tonight coming in off the Bay of Plenty... barometer dropping off quickly now and forecast to bottom out @ 990mb. The GFS brings the Tauranga dewpoint up to around 16C at 1am tonight with the unstable, especially moist air to 700mb. Forecast soundings over inland BoP do hint at a bit of low-level shear so I wouldn't be suprised if it dropped one or two!
Fingers crossed!
Wont happen in Auckland but there is sufficient instablity over the BoP... Total totals look very healthy from this line.. the GFS is going for over 50.NZstorm wrote:The 500mb temperature is -15C at Whenuapai today which is in line with the modelling. Yes, thats too warm for thunderstorms for us today.
Fingers crossed!
- David
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Re: Active trough and depression Oct 13th-14th
This would be cool if it happened
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