Active trough and depression Oct 13th-15th

[NZstorm]

We should get 16C dps in Auckland too but I don't see this as being moist enough for thunderstorms given the very warm upper air. But a vigorous front with good forcing can make things happen I guess so a low thunder risk is not out of the question.

[spwill]

Dont see big Cb behind the cold front, some will no doubt develop as the cold upper air comes north in the Tasman. Morning sat pic should tell the story for tomorrows weather.
I favour the Eastern high ground for Thunder later tomorrow but here's hoping we get a storm here.

[David]

We've had plenty of thunder this year - what I'd really like to see out of this is some violent squalls (100kmh+) or some decent hail, which we have been lacking in this year.
Strange how the wind has dropped away when it is forecast to be strengthening

[Manukau heads obs]

looks to be a rapidly changing situation, with the rapidly developing low
problem might be is that as it deepens and the air gets colder at the surface, it will rain out....and aslo the strong winds will not be good for strong CB's
also I would have liked to have seen more CB's already there .....now....in the tasman....but there is though plenty of shower acitivity, and so i guess it would not take much for that to increase...
i am thinking there will be a zone around the low on the north side where the wind is severe gale and its cold air and the moisture has been rainned out, there wont be much shower activity....but further north , up this way, there well could be,,,
time will tell!
certainly got that stormy look to it here now

[RWood]

you need to move to Alice Springs

I'll be happy to just see the sun this weekend, never mind the wind. The wet, misty miserable scunge of the last 7-10 days made me feel as if I were living in the Scottish Highlands.

Actually, the climate of Calama in the Atacama would do me nicely. 5.5 mm "rain" per year, at least 85% of the possible sun and diurnal temp range not very large for a desert location. Would be good for "seasonal allergy" disorders.

I don't complain much about our weather as I am a realist and so accept all but large variations on the negative side of our climate norms (re periods of 2-4 weeks).

[David]

Nice rainband coming down towards Auckland now but I don't think we'll be seeing winds as strong as were predicted

The wet, misty miserable scunge of the last 7-10 days made me feel as if I were living in the Scottish Highlands.

I wouldn't mind 3000mm per year....but that would have to be sunny days in between

Actually, the climate of Calama in the Atacama would do me nicely. 5.5 mm "rain" per year

Some parts of the Atacama Desert have not had any rain for over 400 years actually
I could not stand no rainfall.

[mikestormchaser]

mmm Active period of rain is expected tonight here with winds gusting up abit to later on.
I was thinking the chance for a thunderstorm if we get clearance in between the rain band and cold SW change tomorrow morning maybe.
As hail is predicted with snow to 6 0r 700m

[NZstorm]

I think the problem with the convection out in the Tasman is the air is very dry.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Even thought this system is active, all the scenarios look boring, sadly

JohnGaul
NZTS

[David]

Even thought this system is active, all the scenarios look boring, sadly

Wrong! - You mean boring for Canterbury .

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Even thought this system is active, all the scenarios look boring, sadly

Wrong! - You mean boring for Canterbury .

No. for much of the country

JohnGaul
NZTS

[David]

No. for much of the country

Well the weather warning map would contradict that. Widespread gales, some heavy rain in places, north and west expected for hail and squalls, etc. tomorrow. I would have to say that is definitely not boring.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

No. for much of the country

Well the weather warning map would contradict that. Widespread gales, some heavy rain in places, north and west expected for hail and squalls, etc. tomorrow. I would have to say that is definitely not boring.

That's nice

JohnGaul
NZTS

[David]

That's nice

I know it is.

Strange how the lights just flickered here - there's no nasty weather in the vicinity. 10mm rain now here today.

[C-Nimbus]

i think we'll just have rain on and off tonight with no T/S, its not really even that windy to be honest

I see forecasted 500mb temps hovering around the magical -25 for most of 2moro

[Cameo1]

Umm well it was REALLY windy here about 15mins ago when it nearly blew our fence over! and the house creaked, and its doing it again now

[David]

Umm well it was REALLY windy here about 15mins ago when it nearly blew our fence over! and the house creaked, and its doing it again now

Well I'm sorry but that means your fence won't stand a chance tomorrow!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Its been a lovely day here in Canterbury today
There were a few 'hogsback' forms to the NW this afternoon and a bit of a defined formed NW Arch.
Really low barometer and peaceful weather.
Maybe living in the west from Fiordland to Northland is not the place to be?
Congtrats to Al Gore on his envoiremental success


JohnGaul
NZTS

[Cameo1]

Umm well it was REALLY windy here about 15mins ago when it nearly blew our fence over! and the house creaked, and its doing it again now

Well I'm sorry but that means your fence won't stand a chance tomorrow!

No, it will.... thunderstorms never go over New Lynn, only slide past lol and don't bet on it tomorrow

[Manukau heads obs]

some good heavy rain for a while ....and some gusty winds
barometer dropping like a rock at the moment!
tomorrow will be interesting

[Willoughby]

Blast.. that jet really took over and shunted the unstable mass to the east... I notice Whitianga hit 19C before the change came through at 12am.

The westerly is back with a vengeance tonight.

[Manukau heads obs]

lots of showers going to blast werstern NI today....
they are starting to look more intense now too, so by this afternoon there could be some beefy ones

that low has exited very quickly, baro rising fast,but steadying off a bit now
edit, i see the low of the east of the SI is wobbling back into the SI and is creating a trough line which looks like it will create an extra boost of shower activity that will move up the west coast of the SI....

[David]

Not as bad as the forecast made it out to be this morning, winds hardly strong at all, just on the fresh side, long sunny blue patches, no showers so far since dawn, and the rain radar shows the showers to be spaced apart and they don't look that heavy either.
Hopefully things roughen up to gales and hail and thunder

[melja]

Sounds BORING haha just like here in canterbury.

[Manukau heads obs]

wind picking up more and more here now
50kt westerly winds on the coast here overnight so far:
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/otherdat.htm