Active trough and depression Oct 13th-15th

[NZstorm]

Next trough could be interesting if you live in the west and north of the country with a good chance of thunderstorms/hail/heavy rain/squalls given the quite cold upper air coming with it. I think Auckland may get some interesting weather off this one.

[jamie]

woooo hooooo bring it on

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

What about the rest of the country? Will they miss out again? I hope not

JohnGaul
NZTS

[David]

What about the rest of the country? Will they miss out again? I hope not

Canterbury didn't really steal the show did they
Maybe some other time.

[Inny Binny]

http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... heroutlook

Whaddya know.

Turning out to be quite a wet month, this one.

We only got about thirty mm for this one, yes.

[David]

This next action is perfect timing. Everyone is usually annoyed at the rain and thunderstorms coming in the weekends, but secretly for us weather folk (except Michael) it could not have come at a better time. (then we can watch!)

[NZstorm]

That front coming through on Saturday is unlikely to have much in the way of thunderstorm action with it due to warmer upper air coming with it.

Later on Sunday is when the air will destablise (over Auckland) and should be quite squally with westerly winds.

[Michael]

Next week is Labour weekend,Were 100% certain well get another trough then

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

That front coming through on Saturday is unlikely to have much in the way of thunderstorm action with it due to warmer upper air coming with it.

Wait and see.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Andrew Massie]

This next action is perfect timing. Everyone is usually annoyed at the rain and thunderstorms coming in the weekends, but secretly for us weather folk (except Michael) it could not have come at a better time. (then we can watch!)

I've just decided this is the best post I've seen in this forum!
Well done!

Ok, slight exaggeration.. but still a great comment!

[RWood]

I'll be happy to just see the sun this weekend, never mind the wind. The wet, misty miserable scunge of the last 7-10 days made me feel as if I were living in the Scottish Highlands.

[C-Nimbus]

Does anyone know the 500mb temp for today? The ogimet charts i use suggest quite a bit of warm air ahead of the front today which I would think would limit activity today???

Still tho m/s even have a weak tornado warning for today so we'll see

[Michael]

you need to move to Alice Springs

I'll be happy to just see the sun this weekend, never mind the wind. The wet, misty miserable scunge of the last 7-10 days made me feel as if I were living in the Scottish Highlands.

[TonyT]

you need to move to Alice Springs

I'll be happy to just see the sun this weekend, never mind the wind. The wet, misty miserable scunge of the last 7-10 days made me feel as if I were living in the Scottish Highlands.

Actually, YOU need to move Alice Springs Michael!

[spwill]

I believe Paris is very nice this time of year.

Nice day here now.

[David]

Actually, YOU need to move Alice Springs Michael!

Couldn't have agreed more! Your profile Michael says you like high temps, sunshine and droughts - that is pretty much what Alice Springs is like forever!

I believe Paris is very nice this time of year.

My neighbours over in France for two weeks recently said it was lovely and warm T-shirt and shorts weather whereas here it poured, thundered, hailed, blew hard (what's new?)

[David]

Moderate risk of thunder and 20mm+ hail tomorrow afternoon!
Also possible wind gusts to 110kmh which could be quite damaging. Gusts were that strong in the July 10 storm - took down our fence and also blew the huge 100 year old macrocarpa in the reserve at the top of bleakhouse road over - left quite a crater and the ground attached to its roots stuck 4m up into the air! Lucky it fell in a SE storm as there were houses just 15m either side of where it stood. Been hacked up by residents now for firewood but the council has decided to leave the stump and trunk there as a 'feature'

[Cameo1]

Hey guys, whats happening in the sky today? Whats the chances of something cool happening?

[Michael]

Weathers warmed up to a sunny balmy 20° with a light N

[Michael]

Its a dream,reality unfortunately is often waking up to whistling SW with leaves flying,windows buckling and condensation on windows,rain so you cant go outside to enjoy and 8/8 ,

Actually, YOU need to move Alice Springs Michael!

Couldn't have agreed more! Your profile Michael says you like high temps, sunshine and droughts - that is pretty much what Alice Springs is like forever!

[NZstorm]

The 500mb temperature is -15C at Whenuapai today which is in line with the modelling. Yes, thats too warm for thunderstorms for us today.

Tommorrow though looks promising for thunder/hail.

[Cameo1]

awwwwwww
oh well never mind, I can do my essay now without any distractions

[David]

The upper atmosphere is set to cool though from now to when the front crosses isn't it?
As clouds come in here now the wind has really been picking up, gusting 40kmh often now. MS must be expecting very cold upper temps tomorrow with the mention of large hail as a moderate risk.

I see metvuw charts suggest a subtropical system to move down from the north next weekend, bringing much rain and maybe gale force winds. Just a possibility at this stage though.

[Willoughby]

Personally I think it looks good for thunderstorms later on tonight coming in off the Bay of Plenty... barometer dropping off quickly now and forecast to bottom out @ 990mb. The GFS brings the Tauranga dewpoint up to around 16C at 1am tonight with the unstable, especially moist air to 700mb. Forecast soundings over inland BoP do hint at a bit of low-level shear so I wouldn't be suprised if it dropped one or two!

The 500mb temperature is -15C at Whenuapai today which is in line with the modelling. Yes, thats too warm for thunderstorms for us today.

Wont happen in Auckland but there is sufficient instablity over the BoP... Total totals look very healthy from this line.. the GFS is going for over 50.
Fingers crossed!

[David]

This would be cool if it happened