Unstable from 8th Nov

[Thunder]

Just looking at a few things could be buildups inland from the Thursday (8th) through to Sunday (11th) in inland areas of both the North and South Island, producind isolated showers and one hopes a few thunderstorms but we'll see. A better sign of things warming up.

I've seen more suttle little signs of possible instability so far this year or what seems like it so far then I did in the lead up to last season, hopefully this means a more eventfull storm season.

Cheers
Aaron

[tgsnoopy]

Nooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That's not fair, my ex flies in Thursday Night, we have her brothers wedding on Saturday and she flies out Monday.

Not fair, it'll stuff the equivalent of a family wedding and I can't chase it due to the circumstances

[Storm Struck]

Yes this can always be an interesting situation having the inland heat convective showers, a sight often seen in the summer months .
Depends how far east they spread I surpose, still will be good for a wee chase inland perhaps .
The weekend looks to have abit more ommph for the odd Zapp of lightning here and there.
Cheers
Jason.

[Storm Struck]

A few CU towers went up this afernoon not just inland but overhead closer to the coast.
Tomorrow could be interesting could be a few thundery showers about, and then inland from Friday-Sunday as Aaron mentions.
Cheers
Jason.

[jamie]

yea i think we should get a few thunderstorms thats for sure. On Monday CAPE vaules are put at up to 750 over most of the north island and similar for Sunday too. And im on holiday now too

[mikestormchaser]

Yeh i see there were some CU that went up this afternoon, had to think about those showers inland but yeah certainly more to the coast thats for sure!
We shell see on Friday afternoon if any big beefy showers go up! be nice because ill be working out in the heart of it

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Interesting day here with totally blue dome day skies starting off this morning leading to a wavy Kelvin-Helmholtz form of stratocumulus building to the north in the latter part of the afternoon.
I took some photos but they didn't come out any good, well to show the wavyness of the clouds.
Some castellatus forms and Cu builds this afternoon but clear to the south.

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Storm Struck]

Nothing much came of today just a few spits of rain and a breif flick to the Southerly direction .
Wasnt enough heating beforehand too much cloud cover.
I am pleased to say that any other chances are now diminished for the weekend, and we can look forward to more sunshine and less rain.
Bring on December .
Cheers
Jason.

[melja]

Some large cbs seen through the lower cloud around 4pm up inland behind mt grey, at a gess i would say it was fine inland with plenty of heating

[Paul Mallinson]

Some large cbs seen through the lower cloud around 4pm up inland behind mt grey, at a gess i would say it was fine inland with plenty of heating

Yes, we detected one cloud to cloud discharge in north Canterbury towards the high terrain. Radar cross section showed one cell had precipitation to 6 or 7 kilometres briefly.

Paul

[David]

I see a risk of some heavy showers about this afternoon. The convergence mentioned on the weather on TV1 last night doesn't appear to have happened, well not yet anyway. Whenever there is convergence usually there will always be an E or NE breeze here and right now is WSW. Its swung NE at Eastern Beach a few kms away though. Hopefully convergence will happen here
Cumulus popping up now albeit small development, they have come up a bit in the last hour - a good sign.

[Michael]

You can have it,have the washing out

I see a risk of some heavy showers about this afternoon. The convergence mentioned on the weather on TV1 last night doesn't appear to have happened, well not yet anyway. Whenever there is convergence usually there will always be an E or NE breeze here and right now is WSW. Its swung NE at Eastern Beach a few kms away though. Hopefully convergence will happen here
Cumulus popping up now albeit small development, they have come up a bit in the last hour - a good sign.

[jamie]

Looks to be a convergence line forming to the far east of auckland.

I have been out in the sun watching the clouds and have noticed that the clouds are extreemly turbulant at low levels. I was thinking it might just be the convection working but it seems more vigerous than normal . Anyone care to tell me why it looks more vigerous than other days.

[David]

A NE wind in the east now, and there is a SW in the west. So they were right about the convergence. We're getting some good ground heating too, if only the atmosphere were much more unstable.

[spwill]

Just fair weather Cu on this nice day, enjoy.
18C, dewpoints 11C.

[RWood]

Some unforecast cloudiness here today, with a bit of drizzle an hour ago. Brightening now, but any sun probbaly won't appear before about 4pm, if at all. Does anyone have the MTD sun figures form the Herald? Dompost has them screwed up.

[David]

Does anyone have the MTD sun figures form the Herald?

It says 48.5hrs so far this November and the latest 24hr reading for wellington was for Thursday, so I think they mean 48.5hrs to the end of Thursday.

[RWood]

Thanks - my paper also said that to end of Wed, so something is a bit confused. Thursday was very sunny.

[NZstorm]

Some cold air upstairs (Auckland -23.1C at 500mb today) but the lower atmosphere is very stable.
Maybe an Isolated cb over the inland central ranges as Met Service have predicted.

[Willoughby]

Thunderstorms tomorrow, guys? Dewpoints looking a bit better tomorrow too, up to 12C around the Auckland area with those converging sea breezes during the afternoon.

[Manukau heads obs]

build ups occuring already north of auckland

[Manukau heads obs]

lots of towring CU around the area now already

[jamie]

looking good out there already

[spwill]

More moisture today, dewpoints around 12C currently 19C.
Small towering Cu and a couple of shower clouds just north of Auckland.

[NZstorm]

The easterly has bought in slightly warmer moist air at the lower levels which is making skies a bit more unstable looking today. But the Auckland 1200Z sounding shows a warm nose around the 3000m level which will act as a very good cap to larger cb development. Will see what the midday sounding shows but I expect the cap to still be there.