Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

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Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

I like the look of metservice forecast for tomorow, 'Rain developing tomorrow, with a few thunderstorms' compared to Blueskies 'risk of drizzle' :?

Looking at the models, I think thunderstorms are definitly on the cards,developing inland then moving outover the coast with rain developing from evening onwards. I just hope the rain holds off till after the races!! One of the only daysin the year I dont really want Tstorms!! :shock:

Thursdays forecast looks even better, with the upper air even colder.
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by gllitz »

Well, the last GFS run showed LFTX of 0 to -2, isolated right around the CHCH area, funnily enough...hmmmmm. :-k

That is a little similar to what we had a couple weeks ago...although that one had more daytime heating that let it fire up?
Tomorrow will be interesting, indeed.... 8-[ 8-[

Bummer for the people at the races if it DOES eventuate... :lol:

EDIT: Dewpoints are not as high as previously posted...only up to about 10C :-k :-k

EDIT 2: GFS model showing a CAPE of up to 300J/KG....I take it that is not very high potential energy for T'storms? Pass.....over to the experts...
Last edited by gllitz on Mon 12/11/2007 19:13, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by Inny Binny »

Bah who cares about the cup! :lol:

Blue Skies have upped their forecast a little but still not forecasting storms... :-k
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by NZstorm »

There will certainly be cold upper air over Canterbury tomorrow but the downer for convection could be the cloud cover/coolish surface temps.

Looks to be a pulse of very cold unstable polar air hitting Southland/south Otago in the evening with a good chance of a coldie cb/thunder/hail there.
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Nah :( just the usual boring cold SW stratus and grey skies sadly :(
I wish I was wrong?
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

I'm withholding comment until I see the sky tomorrow... Fingers crossed and battery charging... The people at the races will be so trashed they won't notice anyway! :roll:
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by tich »

MetService's latest forecast for Canterbury has showers and thunderstorms for tomorrow afternoon and then rain in evening, plus snow down to 400m. (lowered from 700m in previous forecast)
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by TonyT »

Inny Binny wrote:Bah who cares about the cup! :lol:

Blue Skies have upped their forecast a little but still not forecasting storms... :-k
We had thunderstorms in the forecasts for Tuesday issued on Friday and Saturday, but then yesterday and today it looked a bit more uncertain... :-k
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by Paul Mallinson »

Yes I do work weekends John, but was off this last weekend just gone. Back at work tomorrow.

Looks like a very interesting day coming up tomorrow. Jet stream shoots up the west side of the South Island and so the South Island is on the cold side of it = strong cooling aloft. There is a significant trough associated with strong ascent supporting the cold change expected to move up the east side of the South Island.

Look forward to going to work tomorrow!

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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by NZstorm »

Dunedin could be more in the firing line for some afternoon thunder I think.

I'm picking snow to 800m in Canterbury. Met Service must be expecting some mesoscale cooling to have snow to 400m in the forecast.
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

NZstorm wrote:There will certainly be cold upper air over Canterbury tomorrow but the downer for convection could be the cloud cover/coolish surface temps.
Unsure how you have come up with coolish surface temps :? Although so do metservice!! Blueskies more on to tomorows high, 22C. Big killer could be moisture at the surface, todays dew points were around 10C but as soon as the NW kicked in it plummented, -1C :(
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by gllitz »

Most recent GFS model run still showing CAPE at around 300-350 (I take it this is still low, let's say, compared to the US, but still better than nothing...) ;)
LFTX still between 0 and -2 for around noon today. :)
Dewpoint seems to max out around 10C around noon as well... :-k :-k

Not sure about upper air temps, tho...although the posting from Paul M. seems to suggest there may be some good cooling aloft?
Here's hoping...
Will be an interesting day, for sure...just a bummer it is happening around midday, or just thereafter...will be at work so no chasing :( :(

Should be interesting watching all the people at Addington today and how they cope, should it eventuate :lol:
I've practically got ringside seats for that!
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by Razor »

well its coolish and cloudy so far in ChCh. HArd to see that heating happening...at this stage. Stranger things have already happened this month though!
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

Looking unsettled, overcast this morning, I saw some NW rain up Rangiora way, dew point 4 degrees.. I'm giving thunder a 60-70% chance at this stage.. Got my camera! 8)

Mr. Mallinson, your thoughts?
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by Lawrence »

I'm putting my money on the late afternoon, but not sure if we might get anything here at Rolleston, :roll: just keeping my fingers crossed 8-[
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Metservice are bang on with this forecast:

http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... ormoutlook

Change of plan for me, still going to the races but will now not drink! :( But will have all my camera gear with me to chase when things start happening! :)
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

Upping my prediction to 80%.. We've got sun and heating now.. Heading out! :twisted:
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by Razor »

Yup it certainly looks promising now for action! Looks to be the first wave building out off the coast right now... and dammit I'm stuck at work ](*,)
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by gllitz »

Razor wrote:Yup it certainly looks promising now for action! Looks to be the first wave building out off the coast right now... and dammit I'm stuck at work ](*,)
...uhm...DITTO!! ](*,) ](*,) :lol:
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

looks like a nice Thunderstorm in Central Otago atm, Looking very promising except for this dew point.... but Im still 1100% optimistic :)
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by Paul Mallinson »

Lightning strike out on the coast now just south of Timaru. I think this is where the southerly change is.

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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by Paul Mallinson »

Things are shaping up.

Southerly change has just gone through Ashburton and there is a thunderstorm on this line east of Ashburton near the Rakaia River mouth (probably with small hail) and another directly to the west against the foothills. A few other stikes in northeastern Otago.

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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by Inny Binny »

Looking at the tracker there seems to be a bit of activity right down the east coast from just south of Chch.
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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by Paul Mallinson »

Three big cells now wsw to sw of Christchurch vicinity of Ellesmere Lake moving east-northeast about 30km/hr. These have small hail and heavy rainfall.

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Re: Canterbury Tstorm Forecast for 13th & 15th Nov

Unread post by gllitz »

A few flashes of lightning have been seen over that way from here in Addington as well...
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