NZ Weather Forum

plus Thursday, at the moment.
Upper air looks to become colder

there has been a bit of forum chatter about thursday but looks just a low risk to me at this stage. But a low risk is better than no risk.

RWood wrote:Anyone have the Herald month-to-date sunshine numbers? W'gton must be up to at least 195 to end-Saturday.

Wellington now on 203hrs and Christchurch just above on 205hrs for November.

Quite a grey and cloudy day here, I find it hard to believe the SW will pick up to 80km/h gusts this afternoon, but I could be wrong. Looks like some possible action into the beginning of December?

Southerly here in Chch has certainly cooled things down, but only a few spits so far. Small hail forecast for us, but thunder risk is only for South Canterbury southwards this afternoon.

Looked abit unstable this morning with early morning towers of CU about and some isolated light showers.
Hasnt been much though just another light shower at the moment not enough to register in my gauge.
First time I have seen MS or anyone for that matter forecast isolated hail showers in a forecast kind of strange .
Doesnt look like thursdays change will come to much either now, bring on some thunderstorms for December and none of this boring dull stuff .
Cheers
Jason.

Steady rain here now after threatening to arrive all day. Good watering stuff for the dry paddocks, hope it lasts a while!

Yes and very cold with it to, 7.4 here and still falling.

It's actually even quite moderate rain, not the crappy light stuff that we always seem to get here.

4mm per/hr at the moment on average since 18.00hrs,and as Gary said quite cold @ 7.4C I've even put a heater on ,save me watering the garden though

A welcome 5.6mm in the gauge here so far with light to briefly steady falls of rain before.
Wind is now back around to the Southerly direction from being NE for most of the afternoon.
We still need more rain as this will dry up in about 4 days sunshine.
Cheers
Jason.

Doesnt look like thursdays change will come to much either now,

Don't give up on it entirely. still looks to be a low risk of isolated thunderstorms/hail in east Otago/Canterbury tomorrow with the southerly change. An onshore prrefrontal NE will be required.

The trough crosses the North Island Friday with a risk of isolated thunderstorms/hail inland.

I notice the 500mb temp was -32C on yesterdays Invercargill sounding. That was a cold airmass for late Nov.

Certainly can notice the wind change today (southeasterlies), 22C/7C here, and what a difference it makes in Taupo - just 14C there and partly cloudy, compared to just a few days ago it reached 27C under the warm SSW flow.

Must have been abit unstable today especially this morning with scatterd CU building in them skies.
Tomorrow is an interesting one I think a moderate chance at this stage provided a NE can get up beforehand which it looks like it could well do.
There was a beaut thunderstorm on the 29th of November back in 2004, here's hoping for a repeat .
Cheers
Jason.

Looking like Anticyclonic conditions with warm upper will return at the weekend with hot temperatures developing inland.
Maybe we are in for a hot December for a change.

Looks like the North might get into some humid air by mid next week. Auckland gets it's very warm weather when dewpoints are high.

It has to be absolutely exceptional weather across the country everywhere especially early in the summer to have an effect here.At least that horrible Wind has gone though

Michael wrote:It has to be absolutely exceptional weather across the country everywhere especially early in the summer to have an effect here

Short memory Michael... What about early December 2003?
Link to the thread here: http://www.weatherforum.org.nz/phpBB3/v ... ?f=3&t=239 Lots of humid heat, and a golden time for thunderstorms

Short memory Michael...

A long term memory would not help Michael.

Some heavy convergence showers through the Ak area currently. 17C dewpoint 13C

It was refreshing to get out of AK for several days and the glorious weather over the lower 1/2 of the NI and the radio talking of droughts and wonderful November,heard this comment on Beach FM in Kapiti.

glorious weather over the lower 1/2 of the NI

Lower NI has had a very sunny November and may have a sunny Summer under La lina ( providing flows are NE and not SE).

Wellington sunshine surplus YTD is now about 180 hours. I have a sneaking unscientific feeling that December may not be all that sunny, but probably warm, like Dec 2005.

Just a reminder of other factors affecting temperature - at end-1975 there was still a longrunning La Nina present, the 5-monthly averages having been on the La Nina side, often in the "strong" (=10 or higher) category, since mid-1973. The temperatures went decidedly colder from Nov. 1975, and generally stayed that way through 1976 and 1977. The La Nina faded out by mid-1976 and an El Nino state started in mid-1977. I'm not suggesting in any way that this will apply this time, just pointing out a period that stayed cold as the SOI index went from strong La Nina values right through to strong El Nino values.

With more High preasure over the SI this summer and Low preasure moving NE of NZ we could end up with a weather pattern which pulls a lot of cool air up from the SE onto NZ.

Meanwhile our November sunshine continues (probably not tomorrow) with 227hrs to 27th and 2002 for the YTD (1951-80 average was only 2007!)

The only dark cloud for me is a recenet attack of shingles - totally unexpected, and not very pleasant at all.

I see our forecast dramatically changed from yesterday, now a blast of 'frenzied' showers or rain tomorrow afternoon. Strange how a dark cloud went over today this afternoon and only squeezed out 0.8mm, how disappointing
Ground is dry again now after 1.6mm in the last 5 days, hopefully the clouds will make themselves useful tomorrow.

Strange how a dark cloud went over today this afternoon and only squeezed out 0.8mm, how disappointing

I see GreyLynn got 7mm.

Looks like High preasure will dominate next weeks weather as well so any rainfall at the moment is valuable.

Perhaps a few heavy showers over the region this afternoon if the sun can make an appearance.
Currently overcaste and cool, 15C dp11C.