High Pressure to dominate mid November

[spwill]

The Canterbury Cb clouds on this afternoons sat pic are just orographic high cloud.
Could see the real deal ( high top Cb clouds) on thursday.


Gusty SW has developed here but a nice day.

[Manukau heads obs]

you were spot on foggy about the waikato heat low giving auckland a strong SWer
been up to 31 kts here today

[spwill]

you were spot on foggy about the waikato heat low giving auckland a strong SWer
been up to 31 kts here today

A fresh to strong SW at this time of the year makes for a warm day on the City and NorthShore beaches as it keeps the NE sea breeze out and prevents the sea breeze convergence line from forming over the isthmus.

[Inny Binny]

Southerly change just kicked in, quite cool now in comparison, but that wind sure picked up.

[tich]

Southerly change just kicked in, quite cool now in comparison, but that wind sure picked up.

Yeah it cooled temps by about 10C on car thermometer, down from 29C to 19C in about 1/4 hour. I saw a water equivalent of a dust devil on Lake Forsyth about 4.30pm soon after the southerly hit.

[Storm Struck]

SW change been and gone now and around to the light NE, also down from 29C to 20C currently.
Looks to be a few thunder chances this week coming here's hoping .
Cheers
Jason.

[mikestormchaser]

Yes been very hot today that fern NW pushed the highs up fo sure! cooled down abit now as its still S here in chch but still warmish id say around 20C much warmer inside though!

[Inny Binny]

Dropped 15 degrees to 15 in 2 hours actually, still dropping...

Yeah, there might be a few thunder chances this week, so we'll just wait and see.

[janewaystv]

I'll warrant you won't find a record of 35.1C anywhere in NZ in the NIWA records. I can recall 92.8F for Ashburton in Nov. 1958, and I think there's a similar value been recorded at Hastings, possibly 1949.

33.9oC on the 30th in NW conditions. Christchurch recorded 31.4oC on the 22nd of 1958.

[Willoughby]

Today's 28C in Tauranga must be close to a November record as well?

It was kinda strange to see the dewpoint get to 17C - normally associated with low cloud.. but at that time the sky was mostly clear.

Certainly more high temperatures tomorrow.. but rather aimed at the upper NI this time.

[David]

Certainly more high temperatures tomorrow.. but rather aimed at the upper NI this time.

MS have only 21C for Auckland tomorrow, maybe after seeing todays temperatures Foggy is more accurate than MS?
The forecast is still for fresh southwesterlies tomorrow - its very gusty out there at the moment, there's been no let-up since late afternoon, still gusting 50km/h.

[tgsnoopy]

Today's 28C in Tauranga must be close to a November record as well?

I seem to recall very high temperatures in Nov or Dec 95. It was pretty warm today, but I think it was higher back then.

I'd rather there was cold air up there and instability giving us some action.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I'd rather there was cold air up there and instability giving us some action.

I AGREE

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Willoughby]

Patience is a virtue.

[RWood]

Anyone have the Herald month-to-date sunshine numbers? W'gton must be up to at least 195 to end-Saturday.

[spwill]

Anyone have the Herald month-to-date sunshine numbers? W'gton must be up to at least 195 to end-Saturday.

For Wellington- 8.5 hrs on Sat, 190.9 to date for Nov, the ave Nov sun to date is 164. Chch is well ahead of it's average as well. I see Auckland is below it's average to date, we had a very poor start to the month but good weather now.

Sunny 20C, fresh SW with a dewpoint of 13C.

[RWood]

Thanks. Auckland was ahead of W'gton & Ch'ch in 2005 & 2006 but at the moment it looks like W'gton 1, Ch'ch 2 and Auck. 3 for 2007.

[melja]

why do metsevice have a forcast out for canterbury for rain and then heavy showers on tue and then on the other hand there met rural rain forcast says it ant gona rain for the next 4 days, i know its a model forcast but just seems strange to have two contradicting forcasts on our main weather site that we are paying for to give us important info on weather

[Storm Struck]

Day 10 of sunshine and no rain in a row now , hopefully some decent rain soon enough.
A few showers ahead later on tomorrow but nothing thundery I wouldnt think.
Thursday could be interesting though .
Cheers
Jason.

[Inny Binny]

Because they update them at different times.

Look now, it's updated to match.

[melja]

no they arnt go to the rural part and click on canterbury, read the forcast then look at the rainfall chart to the right- no rain there, then click on the rain tab at the top and then play the rain forcast chart thing for the next 3 days-no rain there we are paying them to make contradicting forcasts just seems odd.

[NZstorm]

A few showers ahead later on tomorrow but nothing thundery I wouldnt think.

polar outbreak/steep lapse rates over the South Island next 24hrs suggest atleast a low thunderstorm risk.

[Inny Binny]

Oh you're talking about the graph, yeah that is sometimes contradictory, I find that a little silly, but oh well.

[Lawrence]

no they arnt go to the rural part and click on canterbury, read the forcast then look at the rainfall chart to the right- no rain there, then click on the rain tab at the top and then play the rain forcast chart thing for the next 3 days-no rain there we are paying them to make contradicting forcasts just seems odd.

Yes,I find that confusing sometimes, like they lump one weather type for the whole of Canty, even the forcast on Radio National is the same and they never tell you what the expected temprature is going to be.They say somthing like "and for Canterbury ,fine with a few showers later in the afternoon"when you know darn well it's going to be foggy on the coast,sunny in South Canty,cloudy in North canty and raining further towards the divide,I think they really need to go microscale with the weather sometimes,like in the states,you can't have one type of weather for say, the whole of Texas can you? And Canterbury is quite a large chunk of New Zealand.I think met service is trying to head that way with the rural forcast page.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

polar outbreak/steep lapse rates over the South Island next 24hrs suggest atleast a low thunderstorm risk.

I agree, plus Thursday, at the moment.
Upper air looks to become colder

JohnGaul
NZTS