NZ Weather Forum

I see MS have a low chance of thunder picked for this afternoon. Any opinions on the chance of this? I'm sure it's low due to the lack of "oomph" this S change has...

Not today I wouldnt think at all Andrew flow is abit too weak and the fronts are breaking up easier.
Tomorrow might see a small risk about the foothills, however Tuesday is looking abit better but we shall see .
Need some rain though only 17mm for the whole month so far, and that is a worry when the average rainfall for November is normally 30-40mm.
Cheers
Jason.

What southerly change? You are kidding right? Maybe you are talking about tomororw? Another glorious summers day here

Take a look at the satellite Razor,there is a weak southerly change pushing up the coast,is that a few CBs popping up around inland North Otago/South Canterbury also?,

I looked at the skies all weekend...and they were gloriously blue, warm and sunny. Breezy SW dry change late yesterday.

28 degrees yesterday, has been a sustained very warm spell for this time of year. The Farmers are already saying its dry.

I know... I didn't agree with it, I thought MS knew of some mysterious convection or low that was going to form... But that's what their TS prediciton said Sat morning!

Recorded highest temprature for November yesterday @ 28.5 c, then the brisk southerly came in

Tomorrow now looks more likely for the potential for thunder than last Sat, mind you the barometer will have to drop a little lower plus we need a good NE beforehand and a bit of heating prior to the front

JohnGaul
NZTS

As i said in the other topic will be interesting as there looks to be abit of ridging to allow a NE to undercut for most of the day until the change arrives.
Sorry to be the party pooper but the date for the thunder category tomorrow at the top is wrong its the 29th not the 28th .
Cheers
Jason.

By South Island standards the upper air won't be that cold today and given the very modest moisture the convective risk certainly looks in the low category. The same airmass could be a bit more convective over the North Island tomorrow as its running into a slightly more moist environment.

Becoming overcast now as the rain clouds drag up from the south, maybe a heavy shower or two here's hoping.
Still NE but should swing around in the next hour or so.
.
Cheers
Jason.

Interesting skies but still no uuuumph despite the peristent Ne?
Some glaciation but no trigger.
I wonder if it will rain at all?
Most of the activity seems to be out at sea

JohnGaul
NZTS

Just had a shower in central Chch.

Gone southerly now, how effing boring

JohnGaul
NZTS

Had the lightest of rain, the whitest of clouds and lightest of southerly changes just go through.

There is just no hope these days is there although having said that December is around the corner hopefully the more active month of the year.
Maybe we need to get (NZTS) back up and running again, it seemed to be the years that it was up for actually produced good thunderstorms.
Cheers
Jason.

Jasestrm wrote:There is just no hope these days is there although having said that December is around the corner hopefully the more active month of the year.
Maybe we need to get (NZTS) back up and running again, it seemed to be the years that it was up for actually produced good thunderstorms.
Cheers
Jason.

What are you talking about? It was only a month ago that I was standing on the New Brighton dunes getting hammered by 10mm hail thinking that maybe I should get to lower ground being the tallest thing on top of the dunes, and current follows the path of least resistance..

I'm not complaining!