NZ Weather Forum

How much rain are we really going to get from this low on thu fri ?... 2 days ago it was saying heaps. yesterday it was saying bugger all and now today it is saying a good amount of rain again.

Looks like the low should stall off the North Island blocked by an anticyclone to the east of the country, and its associated precipitation should last a fair while, possibly accumulating to quite a large amount especially in Northland. Here's hoping thats how it will turn out
Some models also agree that another low and rainband will approach from the Tasman in a week's time.

Dewpoints in the 18 to 20C range for the north of the country later this week. A lot of rainfall potential in this type of air.

The GFS pulled one in from leftfield this morning... lets hope it sticks; LAPS is not so quick with it though.. hmm.

It feels like every day is the same with the weather latly except we are getting closer to xmas .
This is what australians go through most of the time over there, with endless fine weeks and no rain so really I guess we should be greatful for the rains we recieve.
Best noise I heard today close enough to thunder was the roar of the fighter jets in practicing formation all day, one flew right over us in Templeton at 12pm and another looped out to the west of Kaiapoi at about 5pm leaving behind a thunderous roar .
Possibly training for the Wanaka airshow next year in March of which I will be returning to again.
Cheers
Jason.

spwill wrote:Dewpoints in the 18 to 20C range for the north of the country later this week.

How? Its forecast to be overcast and raining, and its only around 17 now so how can the temperature let alone the dew point get this high?

spwill wrote:
Dewpoints in the 18 to 20C range for the north of the country later this week.

How? Its forecast to be overcast and raining, and its only around 17 now so how can the temperature let alone the dew point get this high?

A change of air mass moving down from the north David, in the same way as air can turn cold and dry from the south.

its simple,its Auckland where droughts are so rare and its a ENE to NE flow which brings Rain rather than the systems moving south of the eastcoast and we havent really had in ages

spwill wrote:A change of air mass moving down from the north David, in the same way as air can turn cold and dry from the south.

Yes I know, but I just thought dew points 18-20C would be quite unusual for this time of year, the most dreadful thing if dew points do get this high is the awful humidity we'll have, especially at night. Several model forecasts don't predict as much rain now as they did yesterday, I'm still hoping for 50mm+

We are due for a humid Summer

Dew points of 18C are not unusual for December but 20C is getting up there, more likely in Feb.
Current Auckland dewpoints are 16C.

yes, nothing unusual about high dewpoints in December.

The 360hr model (out to 19th) has the High remaining out to the east of NZ with a strong ridge back onto NZ.
The low level flow over the country will be NE by the looks. Thats good for western areas.

NZStorm
Any chance of me getting access to the "360 hour" model ???? Is it a www site ?????
cheers Peter

Man it turned out hot today! apparently 28C will see though on the news/weather tonight hopefully if i remember to watch it struggled through work also, too hot

Peter, I was looking at the NCEP hemispheric ensembles. Look at Mean SLP.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ens.html#sh

Boring day here for Christchurch. A 'dry' southerly went through this morning, however the were about 3 spits of drizzle on the windscreen when driving to work
Cloudy all day with the temp about 15ºC.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Another glorious day in cantab land, always great after a southerly as the skies usually remain a wonderful blue dome.
Looks to be abit of a NW-SW change in next weeks weather, with perhaps a little welcome rain in sight .
Cheers
Jason.

Id rather get a little welcome thunderstorm then rain, iv had enough of this crappy dull NE low cloud crap!

True to that.

God it's been boring down here.

Maybe some storms a little further down south tomorrow, but here...nah.

Just so boring.

Sadly there is nothing much on the horizon, sadly
Too much high pressure around. There is a wee bit of relief for the Southern Alps next week with a front arrriving but that is nothing much in this series of high pressure systems moving over us, sadly.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Nice to see some scatterd weak CU with dark bases spilling eastwards at the moment, nothing thundery but a few evening showers wouldnt go a miss .
Also some welcome rain into this week coming just for a change .
Another cracker here with 23C and a lighter NE than yesterday.
Cheers
Jason.

A few weak cells with possibly heavy precipitation to the north at the moment, took a few snaps of it on the horizon.
Still plenty of spillover heat convective cloud here losing the sun at times .
Instead of posting again ill put the pics here.
Cheers
Jason.

Yep, just switched to Southerly, I think light drizzle now, full cloud cover, actually the sky looks a little red tinted, is that just me? Yeah probably is...

How much were u drinking last night inny binny? Yeah last night we did get a S come through with low cloud and abit fog even, north Canterbury didn't get that flick apparently.
Nice day today though i love the humid, muggy feel we had today

Ha, Metservice even put out a little warning for Canterbury, as if...dewpoints have been the highest for at least a month according to Jeff's graphs though. Quite humid, I don't really like humid & hottish weather...

nice and warm in rangiora now with 25 and a lite NW now, makes a change from the E winds.