Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

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David
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Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by David »

One of the weather Zone models has about 80mm out of this system, metvuw I counted about 100mm, this site http://www.weather-forecast.com/locatio ... sts/latest has about 90mm, and ogimet has about 60mm, so looking good for some substantial rain at this stage. Metservice also have a severe weather watch for Northland now and have a moderate confidence of heavy rain reaching warning criteria over northern NZ from 6th-8th December. The only strange thing is that the models also have moderate pressures over us due to the large anticyclone to the east - hopefully won't affect the amount of moisture in the NE airstream.
Last edited by David on Wed 05/12/2007 07:43, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 6th Dec

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

might just get thick high cloud and some spits out of it , these things dont always deliver
but rain would be welcome, starting to dry out around here now
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 6th Dec

Unread post by NZstorm »

Given the very high dewpoints (20C) headed in our direction there looks to be the potential for a few thunderstorms (25mm+/hr) over northern NZ with this system (Thursday and Friday). Too early though to make a confident forecast but atleast this system will be something to watch rather than the anticyclonic stuff we have had to put up with of late. :lol:
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 6th Dec

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

shocked to see its raining this morning (just a bit) with a 1021 baro (up from last night)
(mind you I have trouble with the my internet connection at the moment so have not been watching enough what was heading our way!)
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, I was suprised to see some decent rain falling first thing this morning.

Tomorrow is looking a high risk to me for a few thunderstorms over Northland given the high surface dewpoints.
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

rain clouds gathering more now
according to the synoptic prognosis we are going to have very humid and warm northerlies for in behind this warm front, and then a high over the SI is going to direct cold and dry easterlies up and under the shallow low.....bang, big potential for some real action!
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

ah, i see the metservice are already on top of that:
A cold front bringing cooler air moves onto the South Island today.
This front should meet up with the warm air over the central North
Island tomorrow, and this clash of airmasses is likely to lead to an
active frontal zone developing over the central North Island.
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by jamie »

Sounds like this clash of airmasses is going to be good. heres hoping :D
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yawn :(
What about poor old Canterbury?
Another hideously boring southerly change tomorrow :evil:

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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by NZstorm »

I hope the 'clash of the airmasses' is over the central NI as I would like to see the sun out in Ak tomorrow afternoon. Daytime heating will help destabilise the air. Any sunshine should see temps rise to the 25C mark.
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by David »

NZstorm wrote:I hope the 'clash of the airmasses' is over the central NI as I would like to see the sun out in Ak tomorrow afternoon. Daytime heating will help destabilise the air. Any sunshine should see temps rise to the 25C mark.
Good point you've got there - although the wind outside is really picking up now, if we get some sun tomorrow afternoon its perfect breeding grounds for heavy thunderstorms popping up. We need this action after such a boring November! :D
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by NZstorm »

Thats the plan David but knowing our luck it will stay overcast with rain all day here in AK tomorrow. :lol:
Northland will be better placed for some sunshine tomorrow and pop up thunderstorms.
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by spwill »

'clash of the airmasses'
I see Elton John is doing an outdoor concert in New Plymouth tomorrow night, there will be no Candel in the Wind.
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

cant see much sun tomorrow.....
convergence of winds over the area along with topography and some brightening of the skies could be enough of a trigger (if the wind drops from what it is now)
6.7mm here
usefull, but need more , for the farmers
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by Cameo1 »

Looks like a bit of lightning over northland at the moment :D
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by Willoughby »

At the moment? What about all night! :o
Dewpoint to 19C already in Whangarei, 8.6mm here so far which is very welcome. :)
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by spwill »

Just very light rain here overnight ,current temp 18C, dewpoints a humid 18C.
Looks very unstable over the far north with a few Thunderstorms about.
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by NZstorm »

Met Service have under done the max temps today for the north. I see Whangarei they are going for just 22C.
I guess it depends on how much daytime heating there is but in these humid airmasses the temperature can shoot up with just a little bit of sun.
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by David »

Bring this heavy rain on! 17mm in the last hour here, but its tapered of to only moderate rain now :(
edit at 7.36: 21mm in the last hour :D
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by spwill »

21mm in the last hour

Local downpour, just light rain here but there is heavy stuff just to the north
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

15mm here now, nice.
I see the clearance is coming onto the far north now
so maybe by 4pm today it will clear in the auckland area?
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by David »

A very welcomed 40mm here for this system so far, all soaked up by the ground too :)
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by Willoughby »

You're lucky with the 40mm! 16mm here so far with light rain falling now. Temp 20C/ Dewpoint 19C 8)

Might be interesting what pops up behind the boundary line in the far north this afternoon.
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by David »

This is weird, my digital and older manual rain gauges both have 40mm, yet a normal open container I put outside has 52mm. I very much doubt this. Maybe it's because I had it against our deck and in the heavy downpour there was a significant amount of splash maybe?

Looks to be cloudy for a while now, the rain seems to have moved off eastwards, I can't see the temperature going much above 20C unless the sun makes an appearance. Hoping for some more downpours out of this system, the 21mm in an hour this morning was the second heaviest fall for the year here (based on 1hr totals only), close to the 23.5mm/1hr early on 30 March.
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Re: Subtropical rain North Island, from 5th Dec

Unread post by jamie »

We have only had 20mm here. and nothing in about the last hour.

Man what a horrible heat to work in though. it is just so muggy. At least its good for the thunderstorms 8)
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