It would be a lovely Christmas present but as surface pressures are a tad high at the moment, the opportunity for a thunderstorm in Canterbury look very unlikely at the moment, sadly
There is a need for surface hPas to drop to 990hPa or below, at the moment to get things going, an active upper level trough, also, moving across,but we haven't got that
Blame a weak La Nina at the moment
Anticyclones are seeming to position themselves around the Chatham Islands instead of the Tasman Sea.
Looking more likly now I think for thunderstorms along the windchange on xmas night, typical roll cloud type with scatterd rain inbehind perhaps.
I will have to try and free up my evening so I can get out and chase hopefully shouldnt be a problem.
Thats only if storms eventuate though.
Boxing day might see some thundery showers about the foothills in the afternoon as the flow swings back around to the NE.
Cheers
Jason.
Just been looking at Chch Press microfilms for December 1975 after some recent posts. After Chch's 34-35C record maximums on 13th, there was a 3C frost at the Airport a few days later! Xmas 1975 was unseasonably cold with rain, hail, and thunder in Canterbury, plus snow on the high country as low as Arthurs Pass Village and the Hermitage. A low had developed to the east of NZ following a disturbed southwesterly flow.
Unlikely to be a repeat of 1975 Xmas this year, though it now looks like a cool disturbed southwesterly will be over us; 540 thickness maybe cutting across South Island.
After Xmas day a really miserable cold SE/ESE flow set in over the Kaikoura coast, Wellington and Wairarapa - part of what was to be one of Wellington's worst ever summers (in fact in my ranking system it is surpassed (if that's the word!) only by 1952/3 in the Kelburn record). Nelson province stayed sunny in that spell and both Nelson and Motueka easily topped 300 hrs for the month. January 1976 was a generally rotten month in the North Island and poor over most of the south, but Otago and Southland, to a lesser extent the Mackenzie had quite fine weather, though cool.
Lol, NZstorm.. what are they thinking eh? May that media release be embarrassing!
There will be strong cold westerlies with showers in the far south for Invercargill, possible thunderstorms along the South Island east coast as you guys suggest, showers developing with freshening northerlies over Wellington before turning cool Boxing Day.
Up north here, rain developing with heavy falls and moist northerlies... clearing on Boxing Day to dry strong southwesterlies.
I'll be in a place where it's quite pleasant in westerly regimes... Rotorua!
As for John claiming we all should be inside.. what rubbish! Every xmas we're outside enjoying ourselves depending on the weather of course. We're not clamped down by snow or anything are we..
Still looks thunderstormy for Christmas Day or Boxing Day?
...even though the thunderstorm possibility looks very less as surface barometer pressures are too high at the moment JohnGaul
NZTS
i say nothing!
