NZ Weather Forum

Razor wrote:Xmas Day storms for Canterbury????

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... nz&tim=156

It would be a lovely Christmas present but as surface pressures are a tad high at the moment, the opportunity for a thunderstorm in Canterbury look very unlikely at the moment, sadly
There is a need for surface hPas to drop to 990hPa or below, at the moment to get things going, an active upper level trough, also, moving across,but we haven't got that
Blame a weak La Nina at the moment
Anticyclones are seeming to position themselves around the Chatham Islands instead of the Tasman Sea.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Xmas Day storms for Canterbury????

That's what I predicted and I'm still sticking with that prediction.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Anticyclones are seeming to position themselves around the Chatham Islands instead of the Tasman Sea.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Im going with thunderstorms over the SI too. got some cape values down there wich will help to fuel the storms.

Also i see there is a TC forcast to form over Vanuatu from about the 24th onwards

NZstorm wrote:

Xmas Day storms for Canterbury????

That's what I predicted and I'm still sticking with that prediction.

...sorry, sadly

it will be with the usual SW/S change with the low cloud moving in and the possibility of drizzle developing with the southerly change.

JohnGaul
NZTS

i say nothing!

Looking more likly now I think for thunderstorms along the windchange on xmas night, typical roll cloud type with scatterd rain inbehind perhaps.
I will have to try and free up my evening so I can get out and chase hopefully shouldnt be a problem.
Thats only if storms eventuate though.
Boxing day might see some thundery showers about the foothills in the afternoon as the flow swings back around to the NE.
Cheers
Jason.

I see the preview forecast for Christmas is rain, probably won't stay that way though.

Yes, looks like a trough will cross NZ on Xmas Day:x . A white Xmas (hail) some where ?

My early forecast is not looking good even with the 24hr rule.

Just been looking at Chch Press microfilms for December 1975 after some recent posts. After Chch's 34-35C record maximums on 13th, there was a 3C frost at the Airport a few days later! Xmas 1975 was unseasonably cold with rain, hail, and thunder in Canterbury, plus snow on the high country as low as Arthurs Pass Village and the Hermitage. A low had developed to the east of NZ following a disturbed southwesterly flow.
Unlikely to be a repeat of 1975 Xmas this year, though it now looks like a cool disturbed southwesterly will be over us; 540 thickness maybe cutting across South Island.

After Xmas day a really miserable cold SE/ESE flow set in over the Kaikoura coast, Wellington and Wairarapa - part of what was to be one of Wellington's worst ever summers (in fact in my ranking system it is surpassed (if that's the word!) only by 1952/3 in the Kelburn record). Nelson province stayed sunny in that spell and both Nelson and Motueka easily topped 300 hrs for the month. January 1976 was a generally rotten month in the North Island and poor over most of the south, but Otago and Southland, to a lesser extent the Mackenzie had quite fine weather, though cool.

This is what Met Service released to the media today!

The weather is looking good for Christmas Day for most of the country.
MetService delivered the good news in its Christmas forecast released today,

And this is the official word for boxing day

the nation is in for a great Boxing Day.

I'm sticking to my forecast for an unsettled Xmas Day for much of the country.

Lol, NZstorm.. what are they thinking eh? May that media release be embarrassing!

There will be strong cold westerlies with showers in the far south for Invercargill, possible thunderstorms along the South Island east coast as you guys suggest, showers developing with freshening northerlies over Wellington before turning cool Boxing Day.

Up north here, rain developing with heavy falls and moist northerlies... clearing on Boxing Day to dry strong southwesterlies.

I'll be in a place where it's quite pleasant in westerly regimes... Rotorua!

As for John claiming we all should be inside.. what rubbish! Every xmas we're outside enjoying ourselves depending on the weather of course. We're not clamped down by snow or anything are we..

Haha, metservice again contradicting themselves in some way

Haha, metservice again contradicting themselves in some way

Sometimes I wonder exactly what prog maps they are looking at. If they have looked at any at all.

Met also said this morning, essentilly fine weather between Xmas day and the New Year.

Well.....maybe, if the country ends at the bombay Hills...

Mind you these are the people who said the West Coast would get lower rainfall than normal in Dec07..

We all know it's hard to give a reliable forecast beyond 4 or 5 days. Forecast models change like the weather

Well its grotty with drizzle in AK today and yet yesterday we thought it would be fine today.

Met Service forecast for 'fine Xmas' broadcast on NewstalkZB yesterday came from Bob McDavitt rather than the Kelburn forecast office.

well a glorious afternoon in ChCh

Razor wrote:well a glorious afternoon in ChCh

...with thunder

JohnGaul
NZTS

Still looks thunderstormy for Christmas Day or Boxing Day?
...even though the thunderstorm possibility looks very less as surface barometer pressures are too high at the moment
JohnGaul
NZTS

Hey, you say they need to be at 990hPa, they'll get down to 1000hPa with current models, so not too bad.

Inny Binny wrote:Hey, you say they need to be at 990hPa, they'll get down to 1000hPa with current models, so not too bad.

Have to fart more often to get the barometric pressure lower

JohnGaul
NZTS

Looking Invercargill and Dunedin will have the Xmas Day thunder/hail.

Nah we'll get a storm lol you just wait, hopefully it wont be predicted and then it will happen!!! hehe