NZ Weather Forum

Well, I'll miss it.. Will be relaxing in front of the log burner in Arthur's Pass Christmas day... Gutted actually, we've just bought a Sony Cybershot H7 too... looking forward to chasing with it!

Looking Invercargill and Dunedin will have the Xmas Day thunder/hail.

Convection may organise into a squall line/southerly buster, moving into south Canterbury by early evening Xmas day.

Cold upper air will cross North Island on boxing day with a thunder/hail risk. Hawkes Bay/Gisborne will get a southerly buster.

Latest GFS model run (22DEC 1800Z) for CHCH has a CAPE of around 150 and Lifted Index around 0...hmmm...for late arvo/evening Xmas day...dewpoints are a bit on the lowside, however...nothing to write home about, but definitely better than what we have been seeing lately...
If I recall correctly the last good storm that came thru a couple months ago had a CAPE around 300 or so? We'll see...will keep watching model runs...

Xmas day not great for most – but New Years Eve and day will be a cracker !!!!!!

yes xmas day, but what about 2mro night xmas eve? couldn't think of anything better having a good THUNDERSTORM! light up the night sky on xmas eve, having in mind we have a knack down here in chch of getting storms on new years eve, as it has happened quite few times.
And i can say that would take over new years eve partying, that would be my party! haha

I was surprised to see only a low risk of thunderstorms for the south island tomorrow on MS especially in the far south i would hve thought a high risk and atleast moderate here.
There must be some reasoning behind this Paul?.
Few spots of rain outside currently also a breezy N-NE wind and 20C, If we get an ok amount of moisture on the ground and the wind stays N-NE something may pop up in south canty along the weak southerly.
Plenty of chances coming up anywayz, and remember storms at this time of the year can roll up even after midnight as we have seen before.
Cheers
Jason.

Hard to believe we'll have rain with heavy falls tomorrow after today's continuation of fantastic weather

Just had a brief dolop of rain grounds are all wet now and 2.3mm in about 15mins, its the big west coast drops that do it .
Cheers
Jason.

Jason, I agree with you regards the 'high risk' for Southland and E Otago as far north as Dunedin tomorrow.
Canterbury is a different story, 24hrs out the risk looks low due to lack of moisture and the delayed arrival of colder upper air.

Boxing day will be interesting for the east of the North Island with a high risk of thunder/hail (at this stage) for Hawkes Bay and Gisborne.

The frontal boundary moved across Auckland recently, and was well-defined.
The leading edge shown below is altocumulus.

Cool pics David

A mod risk out for canty/otago and a low risk in quite a few other places...

i see an area of heavy rain heading towards the auckland area for early this afternoon

Merry Xmas

A cloudy Xmas day for Auckland but temp is 21C already.

I'm seeing a 'high risk' of thunder for the Dunedin area today.

Merry Xmas to all

Warm overnight rain amounted to 26.5mm so far here in the Sounds - sun starting to sneak through. Good Xmas gift for us - Dec rain now approx 145mm

Merry Christmas and seasons greetings to all here on the forum...to you and yours, hope it is a great one for you!

(BTW...most recent GFS run is now showing a Boxing Day CAPE of around 330 for CHCH and LI of -2...!! )

Merry Xmas to everyone enjoy your day wether it be turkey or sassauges on the BBQ kiwi style .
Yes a moderate by MS for today, change i am picking will arrive 7-8pm if not later so hopefully if any storms do develop they have enough to keep going.
Boxing day looks really good a high risk perhaps, blueskies is going for heavy showers and a risk of hail in the afternoon usually signals thunder .
Cheers
Jason.

Yes merry xmas to you all! hope all you guys have a fantastic day!
Beautiful out at the moment in chch, mm sounds good for thunder aye? awesome, will keep watch as the day progresses and esp tomorrow!

cheers.

they need to be at 990hPa, they'll get down to 1000hPa

There are many intances of storm development in Otago/Southland with higher pressures eg 1010-1020
Usually as a high is retreating eastwards as shallow troughs lie in the Tasman Sea

Jasestrm wrote:Merry Xmas to everyone enjoy your day wether it be turkey or sassauges on the BBQ kiwi style .
Yes a moderate by MS for today, change i am picking will arrive 7-8pm if not later so hopefully if any storms do develop they have enough to keep going.
Boxing day looks really good a high risk perhaps, blueskies is going for heavy showers and a risk of hail in the afternoon usually signals thunder .
Cheers
Jason.

Ditto Jason. You didn't answer my question about Pegasus?

Its coming along well Rwood, stages 1-2 start building the houses in January and also the golf corse and sports fields from what Ive been told.
Also all the major waterways will be developed and gradually changed into native wetlands, plus the lake which is half being built currently.
Its about time they upgraded the traffic route in CHCH before the mojority of the town gets under way , its bad enough in the mornings as it is.
Sounds like a chase day ahead tomorrow for storms here's hoping, severe thunderstorms about inland Marlborough and Nelson .
Cheers
Jason.

The Christmas Day Front is bowling into the Dunedin hemisphere from the SW with some dark-bottomed cumulus slipping at pace along its edge in a NW to SE direction. Was a pileous cap on a cloud far inland a few minutes ago. Conditions look adequate for thunder. I'll take some pics if it starts looking pic-worthy.

A thunderstorm has developed over the hill country out to the SW of Dunedin, pretty much where I expected the storms to fire first today.

Made the first aural contact with some thunder, would seem to be from due west of Dunedin.

yeahi see some strikes down south atm, and its a nice COOL NE breze here so we have the sea breeze to witch is good signs. ahead of the S change