26/27th TS Possible, Canterbury - Much of NI!!!

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Storm Struck
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26/27th TS Possible, Canterbury - Much of NI!!!

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Just thought I would start a new topic as it is looking rather interesting tomorrow afternoon/evening for thunderstorms.
Anyone's thoughts on the hot spots for tomorrow?.
Cheers
Jason
Last edited by Storm Struck on Wed 26/12/2007 10:59, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Boxing day thunderstorms, Canterbury - Mid & Lower NI

Unread post by gllitz »

Jasestrm wrote:Just thought I would start a new topic as it is looking rather interesting tomorrow afternoon/evening for thunderstorms.
Anyone's thoughts on the hot spots for tomorrow?.
Cheers
Jason
So far, Jase, here in Canty...CHCH and surrounds by the numbers I am seeing in the GFS models...CAPE is still 300+ and LFTX is 0 to -2...Sat pics are promising, but I'm a little worried it won't be warm enough, but the numbers are similar to the stuff we had just a few weeks ago...we'll see...can't wait for next couple of runs... :-k :-k
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Re: Boxing day thunderstorms, Canterbury - Mid & Lower NI

Unread post by Willoughby »

Merry Christmas everyone :)

Yes! Looking good finally for some decent squally thunderstorm action over much of the North Island with the passage of the strong -28C trough. Deepening instability progged into the Marlborough-Kapiti Coast early afternoon, probably some severe thunderstorms in those regions and the possiblility of thundery showers mixed with hail hitting Wellington in the veering southwesterlies if the instability keeps up in the Cook Strait.

Higher surface temperatures (24C) in the northeast around Gisborne could lead to a few evening thunderstorms with dry mid-level air coming in from the west with the trough while being in the midst of 12C surface dewpoints. Hard to forecast though as the area is slightly more capped than the lower NI.

Today's folk at Ellerslie might want to hold onto their hats. ( :mrgreen: )
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Re: Boxing day thunderstorms, Canterbury - Mid & Lower NI

Unread post by Michael »

There be no t.s just few fine periods and long cloudy periods with that annoying all the time Wind.
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Re: Boxing day thunderstorms, Canterbury - Mid & Lower NI

Unread post by jamie »

Looks to be some cold air aloft here. Getting in the 2nd herd of cows this morning i got drenched as a squal came through :evil: . Worst thing was that i could see it coming but couldnt do any thing about it lol.

Hopefully we get to see some action today :)
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Re: Boxing day thunderstorms, Canterbury - Mid & Lower NI

Unread post by gllitz »

Oh well...no t/s for canty today by the looks of things....next time!
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Re: Boxing day thunderstorms, Canterbury - Mid & Lower NI

Unread post by NZstorm »

That cold pool will cross the North Island at the right time for daytime heating to enhance the convection. Should see a few thunderstorms fire up over inland parts, and also likely in Gisborne with that late afternoon southerly. :)

Looks to be a chance for storm in Canterbury on Thursday gllitz with an afternoon southerly buster due.
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Re: Boxing day thunderstorms, Canterbury - Mid & Lower NI

Unread post by spwill »

Central North Island looks the place to be for good storms, good timing. Max daytime heating will combine with upper cold air.

Cooler this morn in Auckland, 18C with 11C dewpoints, partly cloudy mod SW.
Heading down to Wairarapa tomorrow for a few days, have never been to this part of NZ .
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Re: Boxing day thunderstorms, Canterbury - Mid & Lower NI

Unread post by Michael »

Strong you mean
Anywhere else is nicer than Auckland 8)
spwill wrote: Cooler this morn in Auckland, 18C with 11C dewpoints, partly cloudy mod SW.
Heading down to Wairarapa tomorrow for a few days, have never been to this part of NZ .
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Re: Boxing day thunderstorms, Canterbury - Mid & Lower NI

Unread post by David »

Looking to me like a few of the showers we may see in Auckland today will be squally, SW winds here quite strong indeed, gusting 50 - 60km/h at times (without the showers yet). There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms as well with hail possible, something to keep watch for.
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Re: Boxing day thunderstorms, Canterbury - Mid & Lower NI

Unread post by tich »

Frequent heavy showers on Banks Peninsula overnight and this morning with a fresh to strong cold southerly. No thunder or hail where I am, though.
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Re: Boxing day thunderstorms, Canterbury - Mid & Lower NI

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Grrr thunder looks unlikly now :x , I sure hope tomorrow is interesting then.
There was a very brief bit of heavy rain on the roof at about 2am woke me up apart from that its rather dry currently.
Should be some heavy showers returning this afternoon possibly a few heavy hail showers, maybe we can squeeze out a clap of thunder.
Cheers
Jason.
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Re: 26/27th TS Possible, Canterbury - Much of NI!!!

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i can see some nice looking CB top to my SW now

but the low DP means there is not much bottom to the clouds (high cloud base)
18.8oC here now, much warmer than down south by the sounds of it
Last edited by Manukau heads obs on Wed 26/12/2007 13:21, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 26/27th TS Possible, Canterbury - Much of NI!!!

Unread post by Inny Binny »

Some heavy showers passing through every now and again, yes.

I see Jeff's station recorded a fair bit in the early morning, 3.6mm in 10 mins.

It's not very warm eiter actually, only 10 degrees, and falling?
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Re: 26/27th TS Possible, Canterbury - Much of NI!!!

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Overcast now with light drizzly rain coming onto moderate every now and then, looks to be a few red spots on the radar too.
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Jason.
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Re: 26/27th TS Possible, Canterbury - Much of NI!!!

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

few heavy showers about, even had abit of hail here earlier on, no thunder yet, although i see a rather large Cu or CB down south at the mo
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Re: 26/27th TS Possible, Canterbury - Much of NI!!!

Unread post by Wildland »

Sorry Cant'y. Windy Welly has stolen your thunder, again. :D
It fired up here for about 10 minutes at 2 o'clock and then fizzled out.
Started up again just after 3 o'clock with a couple of good bangs, but I don't think Thor's heart is in it today.
The cold rain chased me in out of the garden ](*,)
and we've been robbed (at Tawa) of 7 degrees in the last hour-and-a-half.

Maybe if I head off for a holiday siesta, Thor will start banging things around and tossing a bit of hail about.... 8-[
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Re: 26/27th TS Possible, Canterbury - Much of NI!!!

Unread post by David »

One rain gauge in the Marlborough District reports 15mm in the hour up to 2.05pm.
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Re: 26/27th TS Possible, Canterbury - Much of NI!!!

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Wildland wrote:Sorry Cant'y. Windy Welly has stolen your thunder, again. :D
It fired up here for about 10 minutes at 2 o'clock and then fizzled out.
Started up again just after 3 o'clock with a couple of good bangs, but I don't think Thor's heart is in it today.
The cold rain chased me in out of the garden ](*,)
and we've been robbed (at Tawa) of 7 degrees in the last hour-and-a-half.

Maybe if I head off for a holiday siesta, Thor will start banging things around and tossing a bit of hail about.... 8-[
dont worry our typical S busters coming 2mro evening ;)
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Re: 26/27th TS Possible, Canterbury - Much of NI!!!

Unread post by Storm Struck »

I can now see why as of 3:30pm MS upgraded the TS risk to Moderate inland canterbury, as there are some rather vigorous clouds going by now with much better height than before.
They are getting beafy out there so maybe a good hail shower soon.
Cheers
Jason.
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Re: 26/27th TS Possible, Canterbury - Much of NI!!!

Unread post by Willoughby »

David wrote:One rain gauge in the Marlborough District reports 15mm in the hour up to 2.05pm.
Reports of Picton turning white this afternoon from marble-sized hail.

Partly cloudy, odd showers here earlier and the sou'wester gusting to 60km/h here today. Sure is fresh on 18C also.
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Re: 26/27th TS Possible, Canterbury - Much of NI!!!

Unread post by RWood »

Saw some nice cloud buildups, but nothing interesting happened here - just rain.
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Re: 26/27th TS Possible, Canterbury - Much of NI!!!

Unread post by David »

I noticed a nice Cb to the WNW about an hour ago, was surprised to see it heading our way. Thought it looked as if it had hail in it, but it just rained. Then noticed what appeared to be a hail shaft formation coming, but when that came over it just hosed down. No hail :( Gave 2mm though and took the temperature down to 11.5C, very cold (for summer) out there now.
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Re: 26/27th TS Possible, Canterbury - Much of NI!!!

Unread post by jamie »

There are a heap of anvil tops out there at the moment. In every direction nearly. Most are just small though. But there is one large one to the SW coming over Mt Parongia. So hopefully that is moving in a NE direction.
Wind has virtually died here. As foggy said it was gusting 60km/h and now its just a slight breeze. I gather this drop in wind has allowed the Cbs to develop instead of just being blowen arcoss the land very quikly :-k .
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Re: 26/27th TS Possible, Canterbury - Much of NI!!!

Unread post by spwill »

Yes, a few thundery showers near the Auckland - Waikato West Coast.
Better looking storm near Gisborne.
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