Is It Hot Or Is It Not spell for eastern SI mid Jan

[Razor]

Just looking at the predicted hights for Sunday and Monday...33/34 degrees up the eastern seaboard is what the metservice are saying...could be hottest of the summer on the way...and theres been a few days over 30 already since DEC 1

Is anyone keeping count?

[David]

How come a lot of the days where the temperature reaches the 30's along the eastern south island are characterised by a late southerly change? Been noticing that frequently, when a high of 30C-33C or similar is forecast that there is a mention of a southerly change coming in.

[Razor]

How come a lot of the days where the temperature reaches the 30's along the eastern south island are characterised by a late southerly change? Been noticing that frequently, when a high of 30C-33C or similar is forecast that there is a mention of a southerly change coming in.

Simple really...its called the fohn effect which usually occurs pre-frontally

[Weathermad]

According to my calculations, we have had 6 days of 30 degrees or above since December 1 in Christchurch. This time last year there had been none!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Should get to 40ºC on Monday hopefully but won't break 7th February 1973's record, sadly

JohnGaul
NZTS

[NZstorm]

There is a lot of moisture/cloud/rain in the north Tasman and its headed south for the SI West Coast. Dewpoints should be around 18C on the SI West Coast Monday hence a particularly hot fohn wind. The only limiting factor for eastern SI heat would be extensive high cloud cutting sun and taking the top off the temperatures. With the high dewpoints on the West Coast thunderstorms look on the cards.

[mikestormchaser]

Yes id agree 5 or 6 days over 30C here already so its going to be classed as one of the hot summers!! witch is good
yes NZstorm whenever we get a northwest arch it seems to put a big thick high cloud base over Canterbury witch knocks off the heat, but if the sun comes through look out!

[jeffsweather]

I recorded 3 days over 30C in December which was a record and a new maximum temperature record of 33.5C on the 16th. So far this summer I've recorded 5 days over 30C.

My current total of days over 30C for past summers looks like this
2000 - 2001 3
2001 - 2002 1
2002 - 2003 2
2003 - 2004 6
2004 - 2005 4
2005 - 2006 3
2006 - 2007 4
2007 to date 5

This summers average temperature is currently sitting at 16.2C, 2003 - 2004, 2004 - 2005 and 2005 - 2006 were warmer at the same date with 16.5, 17.2 and 16.7 respectively.

December was around average for temperature, wind and rainfall despite what seemed like a hot month.
My summary at
http://weather.northcott.co.nz/index.ph ... Itemid=309

[Razor]

Thanks Jeff...I think you'll be logging another one tomorrow!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Should get to 29ºC here tomorrow

JohnGaul
NZTS

[Storm Struck]

I say 34C as long as there is a long durtation of sunshine and not upper level cloud, otherwise between 29-31C.
The fire service will be stuck to thier pagers tomorrow.
Cheers
Jason.

[Manukau heads obs]

if the NW wind is not strong enough though, then you will only get a somewhat cooler coastal NE wind instead?

[spwill]

I see Met Service has downgraded the eastern SI temps for today. Dunedins forecast high temp for today is now 21C down from 30C yesterday.

[Razor]

The are now predicting only 29 degrees for ChCh. Some light early rain now has cleared to one of the meanest looking NW Arches that I've seen for ages.I won't be surprised to see over 30 this afternoon still

I check the Met service site regulalry and I must admit it is getting frustrating as to how they deal with predicted maximums, particularly on the day of forecast- they seem to be changing the predictions several times a day, reacting only after the event- and often downgrading a precition only to find they were right in the first place, and then changing it back again on! (what some here call "nowcasting")

[jrj]

Let's face it, the predicted maximum temperatures are nothing more than calculated guesses at the best of times, most of us forum members could do just as well

[sw_windbow]

The predicted peak of 30 for Dunedin has been scaled back to 21. Still, there has been a 7 degree jump in the past hour.

[RWood]

Pick just as well? I don't think so. I've seen a few competitions on overseas forums and most of the contestants, bar a few experts, don't seem to do very well at all. Words are cheap!

[jrj]

I mean for our own local areas obviously
The predicted temps are too precise, which gives them too much credence. Better to say "mid-to-high twenties", for instance. Many people hang on to the numbers as if they are gospel, then moan if they are not accurate enough, yet they can vary over quite short distances.

[Manukau heads obs]

thats what they do in the USA (and oF works well with that method)
and is a good way of doing it, especialy for something so variable as the fohn heating affect/NE sea breeze

[RWood]

I mean for our own local areas obviously
The predicted temps are too precise, which gives them too much credence. Better to say "mid-to-high twenties", for instance. Many people hang on to the numbers as if they are gospel, then moan if they are not accurate enough, yet they can vary over quite short distances.

If they were to give only a range as you suggest, someone else would complain that they want a best-bet value. As to your own local areas, the only way to test things is to actually do the exercise for a few weeks and see how you fare.

[Dean.]

32 currently in the Ashburton domain according to the website with a dewpoint of 16.Should be some high temps recorded around inland Canty this arvo as the northwest cloud band moves out to sea.

[TonyT]

The predicted temps are too precise, which gives them too much credence. Better to say "mid-to-high twenties", for instance. Many people hang on to the numbers as if they are gospel, then moan if they are not accurate enough, yet they can vary over quite short distances.

A very good point.

[tich]

Flew back into Chch this morning - temp in the low 20s rather than low 30s. But if the high cloud clears...

[Razor]

Hasn't got any higher than 25 here. A whopping 8 degrees less than predicted as late first thing this morning .

[spwill]

High dewpoints down there so it will feel hot.