Dry and hot, North Island, January

[Vertigo]

you must be seeing whats passing over us here in auckland, some nice convective activity around. nice to look at if nothing else

[jamie]

Yea the convective activity is moving north. Now there is absolutly nothing to the south and south east but clouds building to the north. Nothing great still though. Just the same as what i was seeing south east and 5pm.

[spwill]

Looks like a dry warm finish to January here. Dry La lina conditions.

Sunny 25C,Dp16C.

[jamie]

This January is amazing. Got to 30 again today. Maize in the area is even dying off because of a severe lack of moisture. Just sooooo dry

[Pelorus Pete]

This January is amazing. Got to 30 again today. Maize in the area is even dying off because of a severe lack of moisture. Just sooooo dry

Thats not good
How tall is the average crop of maize in your area ??? What about milking - production down much ???

[Willoughby]

This January is amazing. Got to 30 again today. Maize in the area is even dying off because of a severe lack of moisture. Just sooooo dry

Thats not good
How tall is the average crop of maize in your area ??? What about milking - production down much ???

It's bad alright... front page news today

Please let it rain

By NATALIE AKOORIE - Waikato Times | Friday, 25 January 2008

A hot summer is bringing Waikato farmers to their knees as continuing dry weather costs tens of thousands of dollars in lost production.

Paddocks have turned to dust and farmers are struggling to feed stock following one of the earliest and longest dry periods in the region in 15 years.

FarmWise consultant and Kereone farmer James Thomas said the situation was dire and the ramifications serious.

Mr Thomas said even if a farmer lost only five per cent on an average 100,000kg/milksolids farm, that equated to a loss of $35,000 in production, not to mention supplementary feed costs. "We only milk 180 cows and I've just bought 30 tonnes of feed and it costs $400 a tonne."

The lack of rain combined with a poor spring has resulted in a shortage of supplementary feed and the relief of maize silage is still two months away.

The cost of feed has skyrocketed, with grass silage bales up to about $100 each compared to $70 last year, and palm kernal up to $450.

"People are really getting into a situation where they're having to cull cows earlier or get rid of stock," Mr Thomas said. "If they haven't grazed calves out they're trying to do that. It could be very serious."

Farmers had hoped for "some decent" rain over the weekend but the drizzle that finally arrived was not enough.

"We need a huge amount of rain ... and follow-up rain. If it remains dry now there are huge ramifications," he said.

Matamata farmer Ross Sainsbury, who milks 220 cows, said the drought was hitting his herd. "If you listen, in the background you'll hear my cows crying out in hunger. It's pretty devastating listening to these animals making this noise.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/waikatotimes/4373371a6004.html

There's now a fire ban across the region also. This January sure is odd!

[jamie]

Spring was crap as well so we didnt make enough silage as we would have liked and now its so dry we need it. Most maize is about 2m tall some taller and some shorter. Trying to go on once a day milking but the cell count is too high to do that. Alot of farms are feeding silage and on once a day. Some farms are already chopping their maize before it dies and well before its ready just because they have nothing else to feed the cows. We will be doing the same very shortly by the looks of things. Have not had to green feed maize for 6 years. Our production is level with last Jan but thats only because we put in a meal feeding system so they get fed meal while being milked. Alot of farms are really starting to fall in production.

Just been reading in the paper that it is the dryest Jan in a century. Also to note its been bloody hot and November and December were dry too.

But its not all bad. Im not complaining. Got to look at the positives and keep away from the negatives

[NZstorm]

Hopefully diary farmers will not have to wait too long for rain although drought is fairly normal for January to March. In recent years farmers have benefitted from cooler wetter summers.

That cut off low out to the east of us is quite interesting. Very cyclonic and no doubt packing gale force winds. I think once again, like Funa, a near miss for NZ. And its a pity some of the very humid air within that system isn't getting onto NZ as it would have been good for thunder potential.

[Michael]

Kawerau should take the high today given the current regime.

[spwill]

Kawerau should take the high today given the current regime.

Dry cool southerly across our region, clear sunny 23C here , dewpoints only 13C so a fresh feel to the day.

[NZstorm]

Looking like a S'Wester will be here for a few days. The air will moisten up too which means we should see some stratocumulus in the coming days but no precip to end the month. Bay of Plenty will get the best weather.

[tgsnoopy]

As long as the humidity doesn't get too high and it cools off at night I'm ok with that.

Still, some afternoon thunderstorms would go down well too.

[NZstorm]

Long range models keep the weather dry over the upper North Island (out to 11th Feb). Interesting to see the models going for another cyclone to develop near Fiji later this week.

Chatham Islands is getting a beating this morning with gusts over 60kts from an extraordinary low pressure system.

[Manukau heads obs]

that low out to the east you can trace back to an upper level feature that was a spin off from the TC Funas tail, which moved north back up into the tropics!

[Cameo1]

So, this supposedly wet Summer we were supposed to have is now not coming? Or are we likely to have a wash-out late February? I think so.

[Manukau heads obs]

I guess we all thought a la nina would bring more rain than normal to the north and east..
but its a fickle thing...we have had the NE winds...but the highs have been too far north...but they are moving further south now....and will do so a bit more over the next few months...and so the next low pressure system from the tropics will not have so much blocking...
but its a bit hit and miss these things from the tropics...

with the warmer than normal tasman sea, once we get into a pattern of tasman lows in the autumn,there should be more rain than normal I would say

[spwill]

Humidity is back today, Dewpoints 17C.

Yes, we may well have to wait until April ( pattern shift) for rain unless we get lucky with a Tropical Low.

[RWood]

Recall this from 1950 - "The first 3 months of 1950 showed no marked abnormalities except for areas N of Waikato where a prolonged dry spell that began in August 1949 continued to provide much hassles for farmers".

Since there were also very high sunshine readings in the first 3 months of 1950 in these same areas, I would expect that above-normals levels of evaporation would have made the effects of dryness even worse.

[Manukau heads obs]

the dry did not start that early this time (things are not going to repeat like in the past exactly )

[Cameo1]

Its looking rather unstable out there at the moment with puffy cumulus and a turkey or two going up earlier over the Manukau harbour area. Can't see whats going on now though because of all the trees around so will have to go for a drive soon. Damn its sticky today.

[jamie]

Sticky is right. Looks like there could be a heavy shower this arvo looking out the window now but MS has not indicated anything so must be rather warm temps above.

[Cameo1]

Sticky is right. Looks like there could be a heavy shower this arvo looking out the window now but MS has not indicated anything so must be rather warm temps above.

Yes it definitely looks showerish, though a strong southerly breeze has picked up here and its not looking (or feeling) as unstable as before, but who knows. Are you getting the high wispy cloud that usually preceeds afternoon showers/storms?

[Michael]

Winds here increasing still.25 knots.Forecast only 10-15 knots.Well that was written in my Herald.

[Cameo1]

Overall a strange day here weatherwise I guess, quite thick high cloud at times too.

[Vertigo]

some fairly strong daytime heating today in aux, seems to be producing a number of dark cu's.