Tropical Cyclone FUNA

[Manukau heads obs]

it has a nice eye now
getting stronger and stronger!:
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA CENTRE [955HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18
DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 173 DECIMAL 4 EAST AT 181200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.9 SOUTH 173.4 EAST AT 181200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWARDS IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS

[Blairos]

Hi
wow, look at that, first had reports of the TC, amazing, thanks for the post

I remember the remains of a TC passed to our west , way back in early 90's (I cant remember exactly what year), and the NNW wind we got on the coast here was 60 to 70 kts....and it was not forecast...I remember people phoning in to new talk ZB
There was no rain, just a sheet of mid level cloud racing along!

Wasnt that the remnants of Cyclone Drena? (I may be wrong in the instance you mention)

I recall distinctively this particular system, as the real winds got going on the day of a friend's funeral - I was trying to organise a fly-past of light aircraft (as the poor fella died in a plane crash in Queenstown, with 5 others) - the reported 2000ft winds were 60+ knots - only one aircraft got away that day, and had a hell of a ride...

[Manukau heads obs]

Hi
no, Drena was in 1997, just before Xmas, and affected the east coast of the NI mainly

this one went to the west of the NI...it might have been 1990 or around then

[Blairos]

Last report from JTWC site

180900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 173.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (FUNA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY HAS REVEALED
A LOW LEVEL EYE STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5 FROM PGTW, ABRF,
AND NFFN WERE USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE AS A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
IS PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THIS OUTFLOW CHANNEL SHOULD
ALLOW THE STORM TO REACH ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY BY TAU 24. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE TYPE PATTERN. THE
TRACK SPEED HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAD VERIFIED TOO SLOW FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS,
BUT THE MODELS HAVE UNIFORMLY PREDICTED AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED
IN THEIR LATEST RUNS. THE AVAILABLE MODEL FIELDS ALSO FORECAST AN
INTERACTION BETWEEN TC 12P AND A 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
NORTHWEST OF NEW ZEALAND, WHICH WILL INDUCE A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND TAU 36. AROUND THIS TIME, TC 12P WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO
EXTRATROPICAL AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR 25S. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
182100Z AND 190900Z.//

[Manukau heads obs]

the deeper it can get before leaving the tropics, the more powerfull it will be when it gets down this way....especialy if it can maintain its speed.....this could give some severe gales to northern areas....
but then it might blow itself to pieces and slow down and not even come all the way down this far....or move SW alot and move too far west....but I think its going to like to track down the existing trough axis that is out to our east (but which is moving back west again)...
time will tell!

[David]

Looking like it will pass to the west, but models still seem to think we will get some decent rain (but not heaps) and possibly gale force winds as well. Hopefully we'll still get 50mm+ if we're lucky, we really need it!

[spwill]

Atleast the Low center looks like it will pass out to our west which is much better for rain here in Auckland City than if it was to pass out to the East.

[Manukau heads obs]

yes, I agree
and because there is already the trough to our east, and already lots of moisture in that.....there could end up being a big boroclonic leaf cloud develop with widespread rain....over alot of NZ....
its going to be interesting to watch how it pans out!

[Manukau heads obs]

wow, I see its now a 945 hpa pressure center !
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65648.html

[jamie]

But still only cat 3 . Must be getting close to a cat 4 surley.

[Manukau heads obs]

its a very compact and small TC (typical of south pacific ones )
and so the strongest winds would only affect NZ if the center came closs enough....unless it unravels itself and the wind field spread out alot, as it de cloaks....

[Manukau heads obs]

met service have a watch out now for it

[Vertigo]

looking forward to this one! debating whether or not to take time off work and head north for it. absolutely love TC's!

[Blairos]

930 HPa now - Cat 4

[Ryan Thomas]

:O

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

:O

?

JohnGaul
NZTS

[bjb]

Cyclone Funa is now up to a Category 4, central pressure 930hPa.
(Thank goodness it went over Vanuatu as a Category one only.)

Also looks like even after it leaves the warm tropical waters it will still pack a punch.
The 27C Sea Surface Temp. line is about 20S, so it will lose strength after that line.
NZ Met service is suggesting a central pressure of 985 by the time it reaches NZ on Monday.
Current predicted tracks take it over Northland then down the west coast.
Looks like Funa may join Gavin (1997), Bola (1988) and Giselle (Wahine storm 1968) in the New Zealand record books.

Barry

[bjb]

Almost certain to reach NZ now.
At Category 4 even after leaving the warm tropical waters (below New Caledonia) it will take a while to weaken.
It may join Giselle (Wahine storm), Bola and Gavin in the NZ records.

Also remember it is only January and we still have three months of Cyclone season to go!!
Bola and Gavin were March cyclones and Giselle was April.

Barry

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Looks like Funa may join Gavin (1997), Bola (1988) and Giselle (Wahine storm 1968) in the New Zealand record books.

Barry

I think you may be correct there, Barry, as there is bound to be some sort of event with the remains passing over us.
I hope no loss of life or severe damage to property, occurs

JohnGaul
NZTS

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Almost certain to reach NZ now.
At Category 4 even after leaving the warm tropical waters (below New Caledonia) it will take a while to weaken.
It may join Giselle (Wahine storm), Bola and Gavin in the NZ records.

Also remember it is only January and we still have three months of Cyclone season to go!!
Bola and Gavin were March cyclones and Giselle was April.

Barry

Yes, it may be an interesting cyclone season??

JohnGaul
NZTS

[jamie]

What are the chances of it not going as far west and moving south quicker than as forcast (meaning the centre crosses the upper north island)?? If that happens im going for a wee drive up north haha.

[Manukau heads obs]

as the easterly trough moves west , it will tend to want to get dragged SW I would say, too...
but the quicker it gets down this way, I would say the closer its going to strike...

[Manukau heads obs]

i think Jim on TV1 weather made a bit of a dogs breakfast report on FUNA
I think the SI could get clobbered too....as it intensifies again when it meets up with the trough coming from Tasmania...

[NZstorm]

Looking like Funa will pass quite well west of Northland. There will still be some gradient there due to the anticyclone so some very windy weather on the way for much of the country. Hopefully we get some decent rain in Auckland.

Norfolk Island looks like getting some rough weather with Funa passing close by.

South Island West Coasters should prepare for heavy rain. I guess they are always prepared for that!

[spwill]

Looking like Funa will pass quite well west of Northland.

ECMWF has persisted with this scenario for the last few days.