NZ's Hydro Storage situation

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tgsnoopy
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NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Ok, people may have noticed comments in the media about a potential hydro crisis and the possibility of power outages this winter. I'm concerned about the lack of rainfall into the South Island hydro lakes catchment areas.

The last time this happened was in 1992. Helen Clarke is reported in the media as saying she does not think we will experience outages this winter. Media also reports that the generation companies have indicated that equipment will be generating at near capacity under the circumstances, any equipment failure could likely result in outages.

Now I do not work in power generation but suspect there are members of this forum who do. With all due respect, when I look at what is available online I worry a bit. With Hydro Storage presently the same levels as they were at this time in 1992, the increased demand since then and lower infalls into the lakes than in 1992, I get a little concerned.

Now I know I said this before in another forum and it didn't happen, so I'm a little cautious saying it again. This time I am again concerned, I feel people should be more aware and that by turning off that seldom used VCR that is consuming standby power, maybe the PC at the wall when not in use, etc etc can only help the situation. Heck you would also help save some cash on your power bill too.

Take a look at a couple of these links:

Presently the big hydro system of Te Anau and Manapouri is looking pretty empty, in fact it's running way below it's normal minimum operation levels. Of course this is only one system, but I have never seen it this low before.

The website that tracks total hydro storage is the most alarming though, you'll see what I mean if you take a look. Note that the storage level is now equal to this time in 1992, but the infall is much lower than 1992. This means the lakes will drain faster than in 1992 unless significant rainfalls start filling the lakes again.

Fingers crossed nature will be kind to us and the South Island (where the bulk of our hydro storage is) will receive higher than normal rainfalls and the lakes will fill up before winter. But the weather patterns at present aren't good, if they continue then we may have a real problem.

I'd be interested to hear others perception of the situation and particularly of which way you think this will go.

OK, flame away, but I thought it's worth bringing to peoples attention :)
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by NZstorm »

Just have to hope it rains down there. GFS suggests heavy rain on the way for later in the week for SI Alps. Bring it on.

TV1 news reported this week that there is a problem with the Cook Straight cable. Its in need of replacement I think. Anyway, in the medium term I think regions will become self sufficient in power generation.

In the case of the Manopouri, I believe most of that production goes to Tiwi Point so it will be the smelter that loses out there.
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by RODALCO »

There will be power shortages. Low lake levels and problems with the DC link underseas section (Blenheim-Wellington) cables between Benmore and Haywards.

I work in the electrical industry and have been involved with testing from the underfrequency relays in the substations, as well as ensuring that load controlplant for the hotwater and streetlight circuits are operational before the winter.
These UF relays will shed selected feeders automatically when the frequency drops to below 47.8 Hertz. mostly these will be feeders to the suburban areas.
This has to done quickly to avoid a full blackout of the country.

A black start from point zero can take up to a couple of days to get everything going.

When the DC cables are out of service the North Island has power constraints. Huntly is not allowed to operate at full capacity because of the temperature rise in the Waikato river which will kill fish etc.

There is not enough spinning reserve available when North Island Lake Taupo is low on water. See what happens, gonna be an interesting winter unless lots of rain falls and the DC cables can be repaired on time.

It could be wise to invest in a small generator or have a good batterybank for a 12 Volts 400 Ah system to keep some lights, scanner and radio going.

My $0.02 worth for now.

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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

Yep... I'm into this like heck!

The DC link is only running on 1 and 1/2 "poles" which means it's only capable of passing 750 MW across. It's normally capable of nearly 900MW. This is undersea cable related.

I'm not that concerned, personally, but if I lived in Auckland, I would be. I know ABB down here are run off their feet trying to upgrade hydro alternators, and have just done so in Roxburgh, their next one being Huntly.

As seen here: http://www.weatherforum.org.nz/phpBB3/v ... =10&t=2775 My personal view is this; If we don't go nuclear now, we will later. I'm not convinced it's 100% safe, but it's a damn good cheap source. The only other saves will be if the French perfect fusion reactors, or 'somebody' installs a lot of tidal generators. Wind WILL NOT be enough.

We cannot rely on Southern lake storage as our primary source of electricity production.

North Island, pray for mild winters to go with low storage lake levels, the lights could go out. And it's good advice at any time to have gas bottles with heaters and cookers as backups, ask Civil Defence!
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by dogmelon »

Only a major load of brownouts will force change. Lets burn our coal here in our own power stations.
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by spwill »

North Island, pray for mild winters to go with low storage lake levels, the lights could go out.
Huntly power sation( largest single producer of Electricity) is just down the road. :D

Do the Power Companies make more money when we're worried about lake levels ? (higher spot price)
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

By past experiences when the lakes have been low, we have got through the winter without power cuts.
I think that this year will be the same.
People should not be 100% dependent on electricity for warmth. There are other means but not as clean, sadly :(
Because of the snow of June 2006, we purchased a generator. Haven't had to use it yet and we've had a coupla power cuts since we've been here.
As this coming winter looks to be a mild one, the chances of a good snowfall looks likely, so we are glad of our investment.


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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Further reading....

Minzone - in fact the whole Security of Supply section is pretty useful reading (Thanks Gav aka rediguana in the GPS Forums).

2005 document of the power cable
Document on carbon footprint of different forms of generation

I dare say there is lots more out there :shock:
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

Good links there tg, very interesting reading..
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

spwill wrote:
North Island, pray for mild winters to go with low storage lake levels, the lights could go out.
Huntly power sation( largest single producer of Electricity) is just down the road. :D

Do the Power Companies make more money when we're worried about lake levels ? (higher spot price)
YES they do... the idea is to discourage electricity use. Smells like oil companies, eh?
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by sw_windbow »

Andrew Massie wrote: My personal view is this; If we don't go nuclear now, we will later. I'm not convinced it's 100% safe, but it's a damn good cheap source. The only other saves will be if the French perfect fusion reactors, or 'somebody' installs a lot of tidal generators. Wind WILL NOT be enough.
I think Wind + Solar + Better Electricity Conservation Practises will be enough without resorting to nuclear.

I liked what some guy from an upstart Wind-power company said : "New Zealand is the Saudi Arabia of wind". We have masses of it. It'd be perfect if someone would come up with an idea to use surplus wind power to haul water up to somewhere high, like in a valley in the Lammerlaws or Kaimanawas, to be released and harnessed as required.

This year will be yet another touch and go one, but on the bright side it has been a good summer for drenching tropical lows, and I expect more of them to come in March.
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

Did I mention in the US consumers pay 3c per kWh of electricity?!!
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by sw_windbow »

Andrew Massie wrote:Did I mention in the US consumers pay 3c per kWh of electricity?!!
They can thank abundant coal for that. NZ also has abundant coal supplies but the govt is steering away from increasing our reliance on it, which is the correct environmental step to take.

By providing such cheap electricity, the US gives little incentive to Americans to moderate their electricity use, which is yet another reason why they have such a big carbon footprint.

http://www.energy.gov/energysources/electricpower.htm
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

Well... 'moderating' electricity use is not an option when severe weather hits.. The US are trialling coal fired power station output filtering to lessen the carbon footprint of coal stations now.

With NZ's population increasing rapidly, people like Anton Oliver and similar cronies opposing wind farms, as well as difficulty getting resource consent for these wind farms, they don't produce anywhere near as many MW as hydro or steam/gas turbines, the potential energy crisis being this winter and forthcoming winters, wind won't be enough.

Resource consent for new hydro storage won't be easy to get either. The Lammerlaws are irrelevant. It's the NI that needs electricity sources, the DC link limits transfer rates.

On a personal note, I think Palmerston North's scenery is ruined by the Genesis field.

As much as I agree with domestic sustainability, I certainly wouldn't try convincing the majority of the NZ population to spend their own money on sustainable items for their houses in the current economic climate. Interest rate increases and fuel price increases are not making that viable for many families. I also wouldn't try telling Grandma to keep her heater off either. The health sector wouldn't cope.

Ok, I might be wrong, but it's always better to have more capacity than you need for three reasons; A growing population, a world where internet and electric devices are essential and being increased in numbers rapidly, and to cope with emergencies that increase demand. I'm picking we'll see power cuts and a swing in the nuclear attitude due to power shortages in the next 10 years. An example is the uproar when Auckland lost power for 2 hours recently.
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by RWood »

I understand your argument but really hope you're wrong about a swing to nuclear (fission - the rest is in the future). Endless horror stories in the likes of New Scientist about nuclear plants in the UK and elsewhere should carry a lot of weight when options are considered. With our relatively small population we should manage without it.
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

I really hope so! Have tried the Jedi mind trick on the French Fusion researchers to work harder to save the world, but with little success... Here's a nice pic..
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by Michael »

This coming weekend Rain will be wasted in the city ie none fall where the dams are yet stiffling up the motorways as we tend to use more power as were stuck indoors or where the drought is affecting the agriculture sector.Total loose/loose situation.
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Michael wrote:This coming weekend Rain will be wasted in the city ie none fall where the dams are yet stiffling up the motorways as we tend to use more power as were stuck indoors or where the drought is affecting the agriculture sector.Total loose/loose situation.
Yes, you are probably right on this :-k
It will be unfortunate for people who look forward to do things on a WE and will be spoiled for a wet WE but on a positive side, the farmers could be happy with glee as the rain falls in regions like Waikato and the Waiarapapa.
Here in the South Island, things are different with many people not wanting rain but it may be a "Godspell" idea that we get a bit before the winter sets in.



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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by Ryan Thomas »

Into the lakes please. I don't mind about it raining on a Saturday even tho its my relax and drink day / night
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

I love rain! I don't care! I just want these 30degree days to stop (until I get a heat pump, anyway...)!
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by GSVNoFixedAbode »

Must .... resist .... usual .... rant ... Urge .. too strong.

NZ is far too small and diverse geographically to support a capital market model for utilities such as electricity generation : the farce of the last decade has proven that point: profits/returns require high usage, not careful management; the yearly budget mindset is a disincentive to long term expenditure in maintenance and the best investment choices for the country. Break up one organisation into multi and all you're really doing is adding bureaucracy, profit requirements, and barriers to cooperation.

The same dollars spent on these grand power schemes by regional companies - be they wind farms, hydro, or thermal - could just as effectively be spent on insulation, double-glazing, and solar panelling at the house level. Reduce consumption demands, increase efficiency, and create generation-on-location would make more sense economically and environmentally for the country. With the current capital/political model sadly that's not going to happen.

/rant
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by RWood »

I think you're right GSV - the current setup is accepted by both major political parties.
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

GSVNoFixedAbode wrote:With the current capital/political model sadly that's not going to happen.

/rant
...And the nail is hit on the head! Great post, GSV, and don't be afraid of ranting! This country's successive governments will never get rid of the ca$h cow$... You can see the reaction; "That would be silly, reducing the amount of money we get to give ourselves more pay ri$e$!" Don't even get me started on child support or the evil policies that start with T and end in AX.

On a positive note, looks like our hydro storage is getting a top up..! Sorry for getting off topic, I love joining in on a good rant!
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Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Darn good to see lakes Te Anau & Manapouri filling up like that, so quick too. Sorry all those others who got flooded.
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Re: NZ's Hydro Storage situation

Unread post by southernthrash »

A wee bit of rain in the mountains goes a long way to fill Te Anau and Manapouri. Neither lake has seemed particularly low this year though...

Windfarms are quite a silly idea for the SI winter, especially local generation in central otago, the coldest times are the times when the wind isn't blowing....

Anyone think it odd that Meridian refuse to release their climate data for the Lammerlaw site to counter locals who suggest there isn't enough wind there to sustain the wind farm?
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