When's it going to rain?

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
Cameo1
Posts: 417
Joined: Mon 24/04/2006 19:32
Location: New Lynn West, Auckland
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

When's it going to rain?

Unread post by Cameo1 »

Hi guys, just wondering what the outlook for Autumn is like? Its just so dry here it is not funny, and EVERYTHING is suffering! When do you suppose the drought is truely going to break, unlike the false hope of steady, frequent rain several weeks ago? :? Im referring to the entire country.
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by jamie »

I dont know but there is nothing in the next week. Just spent 2 days down in Hamilton and my parents are about to dry off the cows this week. Maize this year fell well short on what was expected so there is now no more feed left. Pretty brown again. What is also amazing about this drought is the water level in the Waikato river. Just north of the old Meremere power station there is a massive sand inland that has formed in the middle of the river and now has vegetation growing on it. This was caused by the continous low water level. will be interesting to see if it lasts when the river level rises again but i doubt it will. Most recording sites on the river have broken the record for low river hieght now.

Not sure when the rains will come but most of the country sure is needing it :( .
Paul Mallinson
Meteorologist (Retired)
Posts: 406
Joined: Thu 27/10/2005 20:44
Location: Greytown
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 7 times

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by Paul Mallinson »

I just had a look at the NCEP Ensemble forecasts for the next 360 hours (15 days). They depict the ridging over the country at the moment, to persist right through the period. All we will likely get is the tail end of travelling cold fronts to the south coming up from time to time giving brief southerly changes and generally very little precip. The pattern has reverted back to what it was before the last session of rainfall at the beginning of the month. Of-course this means very little precip in the north and east of the country.

Paul
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by David »

I know I can't complain about the lack of rain here after the 100mm late February to early March, but things are drying off again, though not as fast now that we are having less direct sunlight and shorter days.
To me it's not looking to rain properly for weeks at this stage, we'll have to hope April will have generous rainfall. It's very surprising to see parts of the country still only at 50mm for the year...they must be record low levels.
Quite a warm March so far with average low and high at 14.6 and 23.1 respectively here. Rainfall - 53mm of this month's 57mm fell in the first 4 days.
Image
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yes, the green flash we have had is browning off again
its bad news for the dairy farmers alright (and others)
good news for anyone else who wants to enjoy the outdoors though

1993 was very dry here, it did not green up properly until May that year
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
Cameo1
Posts: 417
Joined: Mon 24/04/2006 19:32
Location: New Lynn West, Auckland
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by Cameo1 »

So whats the bet that when the rains come down they are REALLY going to come down? What I want is 4 or 5 days of steady light to moderate rain just to give the grass a chance again and a further pattern of weekly rainfall to revive the trees instead of a sudden flooding torrent that will wash the dry hydrophobic top soil off.
How are the native trees doing down in Waikato? I know that area is sparse of trees already and I dont really want to hear that the trees have all died. Say it aint so ;) Hope the birds are holding on too? Tuis etc
Paul Mallinson
Meteorologist (Retired)
Posts: 406
Joined: Thu 27/10/2005 20:44
Location: Greytown
Has thanked: 2 times
Been thanked: 7 times

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by Paul Mallinson »

I don't think we have many indicators that can we can rely on heavily to tell us what's going to happen - although the climatological people at NIWA are more informed than I on seasonal stuff. Anyway, I have noticed in other years that when a dry period ends it does start to rain more frequently -sometimes as someone has mentioned you get a big event perhaps to kick it off??

Two things come to mind. The first is that the long wave pattern around the hemisphere which gets blocked (depending on the number of large scale waves around the hemisphere) can give us these dry periods when we are under a planetary scale ridge. When the long waves change to another pattern you start to get the travelling weather systems again. The other thought is that in summer, the sub tropical ridge moves south to lie over our latitudes. It has done so repeatedly for some time now - some years more than others. But as the seasons change and the sun moves to more northerly latitudes, this eventually has to change and the ridge position moves back to the north and once again we get the travelling lows and fronts in the westerlies.

Paul
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

March, from what I have experienced is tradtionally a boring period of weather, especially in La Nina periods and we are going through that period now. The roaring forties are active, but quiet ,and the lower latitudes are not as fruitful with cyclones as what they could be :-k

JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yes, we might just have to wait until mid april for the westerly lows and fronts to come back?
or maybe before then a TC might pay us a visit...but thats a hit and miss thing at the best of times!

ps, the SW wind is currently drying out what moisture we had....not good!
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by NZstorm »

With the remnants of La Nina I suspect we will be waiting untill June until we get the disturbed westerly pattern setting in.
TokWW
Posts: 435
Joined: Wed 02/05/2007 08:27
Location: Parkdale, Tokoroa
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by TokWW »

Cameo1 wrote:
How are the native trees doing down in Waikato? I know that area is sparse of trees already and I dont really want to hear that the trees have all died. Say it aint so ;) Hope the birds are holding on too? Tuis etc
The Sth Waikato here has had 95mm for the year so far and 33mm in the first week of March but hardly anything since. The green is starting to dry up again with all this heat and steady wind. I have seen plenty of bird life around and plenty of tiny insects around for the birds but have not been for a walk in a forest, i know it is a lot drier closer to Hamilton though - I watched the NI High School rowing champs at Karapiro and was surprised at the difference in the pastoral view... :shock:

I will try and report back with a bit more detail - I'm home "working on the house" in the next ten days... ;)

Graeme
A Father can have a hobby because he is the Transport, Referee, Manager, Committee Member Dad!!
LaCrosse WS-2308CH, Sharp VideoCam, ULD Lightning Radar
Image
http://www.inmanavenue.com/
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by David »

GFS is suggesting some widespread wet weather next weekend over the North Island, but given the pattern this year, I'll have to see it to believe it...
At least the weather this year has been very generous with holidays - fantastic school holiday weather and now fantastic easter weather! :D
Image
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by NZstorm »

A pleasant max 26C in Auckland today. The dewpoints have popped up a bit this afternoon to 16C which makes we wonder whether we may see some unstable weather here next few days. But the models have drier air coming in from the east. But with cooling upper air over the NI does look like atleast Isolated afternoon showers on the cards for many areas, particularly Tuesday.
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by spwill »

Yes hopefully some afternoon showers around here over the next few days.
Long Range looks to keep the Ridge onto NZ, some rain for the far SW.
User avatar
tgsnoopy
Posts: 3653
Joined: Fri 25/03/2005 21:17
Location: Tauranga, NZ (Curse you COVID-19 :-( )
Has thanked: 816 times
Been thanked: 283 times

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

I reckon it's about to rain for about two weeks solid, including flooding ;)

When do those school holidays start? :twisted:
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

we left the washing on the line 2 nite....but it looks like the rain is going to fizzle before it gets to us ......the story of the summer so far!
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
Pelorus Pete
Posts: 47
Joined: Tue 04/12/2007 11:16
Location: Mahau Sound - Pelorus Sound
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by Pelorus Pete »

Looks like we will get rain this weekend. Can anyone comment on "is the pattern of recent weeks about to change" ????
Or is that just wishful thinking !!!!
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by NZstorm »

The next system doesn't look very impressive although humid air will mean localised heavier showers.

Possibly of more interest is a possible cold snap for NZ later next week.
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by spwill »

I look forward to the day when there's a long range weather map with out a ridge hanging back onto us.

Fresh Nor Easter here drying everything out even more. Reached 24C under cloudy to overcaste skies, dewpoints 14-15C.
User avatar
Storm Struck
Posts: 4859
Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
Location: Belfast Christchurch
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Sure has been another warm one here today i was only expecting it to get to 22C but pushed right up to 27C under a very light breezy N-NE wind
Sorry to say North Islanders at the moment looks like the south island may get a few welcome rainfalls in the next week or so, I sure hope a tropical low heads down your way soon.
:lol: At this from M/S on the rainfall warning for the west coast-- In the 39 hour period from 3am Friday to midday Saturday, 200-300m is rain is likely in the ranges.
Metres far out :lol: .
Easy mistake yes but from a well used weather forecasting company across NZ hmmm [-X .
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Maybe they were trying out an April fools Joke a wee bit early :lol: :lol:

JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by spwill »

Sorry to say North Islanders at the moment looks like the south island may get a few welcome rainfalls in the next week or so
Yes rain for the hydro lakes. There are 1000,000 jafa's who love this dry sunny weather so not all doom and gloom up here.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by NZstorm »

It always looked like it was going to be a big rain event for the SI ranges due to very moist air leading to instability. Yes, fingers crossed the hydro system is filled up a bit.
User avatar
Willoughby
Site Admin
Posts: 4433
Joined: Sat 14/06/2003 16:18
Location: Darwin, Australia: Storm city
Has thanked: 264 times
Been thanked: 288 times
Contact:

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by Willoughby »

1.2mm of rain overnight, ze grounds are wet! - That breaks a 23 day stand of no rain.

Good to see a return to thunderstorms over Westland today, the country sure has a bad run of it over summer.
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: When's it going to rain?

Unread post by Michael »

Yes thats Win-Win.Minimising power cuts while it remains sunny :lol:
Yes rain for the hydro lakes. There are 1000,000 jafa's who love this dry sunny weather so not all doom and gloom up here.
Locked