April to June seasonal forecast

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RWood
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April to June seasonal forecast

Unread post by RWood »

Good to see that one forecaster has its predictions posted now... ;)
Myself
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Re: April to June seasonal forecast

Unread post by Myself »

Do you mean this?

http://www.metservice.com/default/index ... niseasonal

Hawke's Bay: Wairarapa: Wellington:
RAIN: about to below normal.
WIND: about normal.
TEMPERATURE: continuing above normal.
SUNSHINE: about normal.
SPECIALS: occasional bursts of wind from the south or southeast.
CONFIDENCE: moderate.


Occasional periods of dry weather are likely from passing anticyclones, but cold fronts and southwest winds are also on the menu and will bring some showery intervals. Low-pressure systems ate expected to occasionally move from the sub-tropics towards the Chathams bringing a few bursts of rain and plenty of cloudy but dry days as well. Some of these systems may produce an episode of significant onshore wind and high surf.

---

The last paragraph really covers all bases doesn't it! ;)
RWood
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Re: April to June seasonal forecast

Unread post by RWood »

No, I meant the Blue Skies one (see FencePost). "Officially" MetService don't (or didn't) do longrange forecasts, though in "recent" times things between them and NIWA have got rather murky and ill-defined in some areas. I'm still waiting for NIWA's longrange for AMJ (they give a brief media report at the start of the month but it's a while before the website version appears).
sw_windbow
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Re: April to June seasonal forecast

Unread post by sw_windbow »

First big rain: 20 - 25 April
First big snow: 29 April
First big frost: 1 May
First big cold snap: 29 April - 3 May
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
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Re: April to June seasonal forecast

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Well it is getting cool/cold now. Had the first frost of the year this morning. :)

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gllitz
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Re: April to June seasonal forecast

Unread post by gllitz »

sw_windbow wrote:First big rain: 20 - 25 April
First big snow: 29 April
First big frost: 1 May
First big cold snap: 29 April - 3 May
I don't think you're all that far off, mate...but I sure hope it's not then, as that's when I am travelling with the family from the States down south to Q'town and Dunedin :D Might even try to stop by Omarama and say Hi to Gary on the way through :-)

(Just looked at the latest GFSlr model run...for CHCH showing a cold blast coming thru right around ANZAC day/weekend...still too early, tho)
"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"
gopolks
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Re: April to June seasonal forecast

Unread post by gopolks »

From Niwa

April to June.

Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty: Above average temperatures are very likely with normal rainfall likely. Soil moisture and stream flows are likely to be normal or below normal for the season as a whole.

Central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu and Wellington: Above average temperatures are very likely. Normal or below normal rainfall is likely, with below normal soil moisture and stream flows likely.

Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa: Average seasonal temperatures are likely. Normal rainfall is likely overall, but wetter in the north and drier in the south. Soil moisture and stream flows are likely to be normal or below normal.

Nelson, Marlborough, Buller: Above average temperatures are very likely. Normal rainfall is likely, with normal or below normal soil moisture and river flows..

West Coast, Alps and Foothills, Inland Otago, Southland: Above average temperatures are very likely. Near normal rainfall soil moisture and stream flows are likely.

Coastal Canterbury, East Otago: Above average temperatures are likely. Average or above average temperatures are likely. Near normal soil moisture and stream flows are likely.
tich
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Re: April to June seasonal forecast

Unread post by tich »

First big cold snap: 29 April - 3 May
Turned out to be earlier than that.
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