Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

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Manukau heads obs
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

some nice cloud around me at the mo..
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by Vertigo »

i just noticed that too :) lots of big cumulus around auckland, some towering
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by jamie »

looking very similar here
Manukau heads obs
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

a CB has gone up very fast in behind mangere....nice dark rain free base....I could watch the veritcal rise very easily from here -strong updrafts :)
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by NZstorm »

Vertigo, that was last nights sounding. The upper air will cool off a bit today. Problem for thunderstorm development today is a lack of a boundary. If it were January the sea breezes would set up convergence lines on a day like this. But in mid April that doesn't happen. They boundary gives the forcing needed for strong thunderstorms.

Can see some glaciated tops from cb's in distant SE over Waikato from here. I see you've captured them with your camera Brian.
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by jamie »

Amended discussion: An active frontal band has now moved east of Bay of Plenty and the risk of severe thunderstorms, and associated Severe Thunderstorm Watch,in eastern Bay of Plenty and about the Gisborne ranges is now lifted.

In the wake of this front, cloud is breaking over the North Island which should allow daytime heating to push temperatures into the low twenties this afternoon.This, accompanied by residual low level moisture and cooling temperatures aloft,results in a situation conducive for widespread afternoon convection. There is a high risk of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Waikato to northern Manawatu and across to Hawkes Bay and southern Gisborne this afternoon and evening with rainfall intensities of 10-25mm/hr and small hail. Additionally,in the inland area from Taranaki to Taupo and down to northern Manawatu, there is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms developing with heavy downpours and rainfall rates as high as 40mm/hr due to the slow moving nature of the cells.Outside the high risk area, a lower risk of thunderstorms is maintained over most of the North Island, also for the ranges of Nelson (see threat chart).

In the deep south, a front moves onto the lower South Island tonight, followed by a significant cooling of the upper levels in the overnight period. There is a low of thunderstorms about coastal areas of Southland and South Otago tonight with heavy showers and small hail likely.
Some clouds going nuts down here.Wind has picked up a bit. not sure if thats good or bad
Manukau heads obs
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

that shower I photographed must have gone just to the south of David, in Howick...
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, few strikes appearing over the central NI ranges now. Nice day here now and things look to be stabilising around AK now as the westerly breeze kicks in.
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by Vertigo »

somethings not quite right in the conditions.. not enough heating, or not a cool enough top layer.

methinks its a bust day.
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by spwill »

Yes the cooler upper air is to our south, nice looking storms firing over the NorthIsland eastern high country.

Partly cloudy 21C here with falling dewpoints.
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by David »

No rain at all today (except for 5mm overnight), was quite dark to the southeast in the early afternoon.

Today was supposed to be our cross-country day today...but they canceled it because the metservice forecast was "heavy showers and thunderstorms". The way today turned out helps you understand why a lot of people don't bother or have a lot of faith in the forecasts.
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by spwill »

Today was supposed to be our cross-country day today...but they canceled it because the metservice forecast was "heavy showers and thunderstorms". The way today turned out helps you understand why a lot of people don't bother or have a lot of faith in the forecasts.
David, have a look at the photo's Brian posted this morn ;) remember the forecast is for the region.
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by NZstorm »

somethings not quite right in the conditions.. not enough heating, or not a cool enough top layer.
The problem today was the less moist air being brought in by the westerly breeze.
This mornings sounding over Auckland showed good instability based on 18C dewpoint. CAPE was close to 500 with LI-1.7. But the drop of the dewpoint to dp15C after lunch removed the CAPE. And as I mentioned earlier, the lack of a boundary line for forcing didn't help either.
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by Myself »

David wrote:No rain at all today (except for 5mm overnight), was quite dark to the southeast in the early afternoon.

Today was supposed to be our cross-country day today...but they canceled it because the metservice forecast was "heavy showers and thunderstorms". The way today turned out helps you understand why a lot of people don't bother or have a lot of faith in the forecasts.
Yes, they forget about when it's correct, which is the majority of the time, and remember when it's wrong- then form their opinion based upon their selective memory.
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by Philip Duncan »

Hey everyone - been a while since i logged on here!

Busy old week this week. I had a few interviews on tv/radio this week and am now on a mission to try and improve the communication of MetService warnings to the public. Someone said earlier on in this post that there seems to be a breakdown. I totally agree - to me the NZ public has become complacent - and so had the media. Stop airing "Fiordland rain warnings" at the top of a news bulletin and save that air time for serious rain warnings. Radio announcers have a habit of simplifying the facts too.

I'm working closely with MetService and our Radio Network stations to create a "programme break" when there's severe weather. In other words - we interrupt the programme to bring you this thunderstorm warning etc.

I think TV should do the same - have a ticker at the bottom of the screen when there's something extreme. Certainly would be approprite on TV1.

btw - don't forget to check out my blogs and news stories: http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/anndetail.asp?annid=1264 We're going to launch a better weather news website soon... this one is a bit under resourced at the moment!

Hope all is well with everyone. :-)
Phil.
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

Hi
yes, I think the public had become a bit complacent , after such a long and settled summer....
the problem with weather warnings is your dammed if you do (i.e the cry wolf syndrom) and your dammed if you dont.

I like the idea of a "This is a particulalry dangerous situation"
(i.e where the potential for rapidly changing conditions could occur almost anywhere)
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by spwill »

I'm working closely with MetService and our Radio Network stations to create a "programme break" when there's severe weather
They do this in USA and Australia, it's the best way of getting a message out to a large audience quickly and it's very attention grabbing.

I like Brians suggestion of a PDS, tells people they need to keep a close watch on the weather and the forecast for the day.
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by Vertigo »

Yes, I would study the US NOAA radio warnings. they generally describe hazardous conditions as what they can theoretically produce, not what is predicted. ie: severe thunderstorm capable of producing penny sized hail
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by Cameo1 »

absolutely pouring down here this morning :D
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by Vertigo »

must be fairly localized, because there is sweet FA on the radar.
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by RWood »

philip duncan wrote:Hey everyone - been a while since i logged on here!

Busy old week this week. I had a few interviews on tv/radio this week and am now on a mission to try and improve the communication of MetService warnings to the public. Someone said earlier on in this post that there seems to be a breakdown. I totally agree - to me the NZ public has become complacent - and so had the media. Stop airing "Fiordland rain warnings" at the top of a news bulletin and save that air time for serious rain warnings. Radio announcers have a habit of simplifying the facts too.

I'm working closely with MetService and our Radio Network stations to create a "programme break" when there's severe weather. In other words - we interrupt the programme to bring you this thunderstorm warning etc.

I think TV should do the same - have a ticker at the bottom of the screen when there's something extreme. Certainly would be approprite on TV1.

btw - don't forget to check out my blogs and news stories: http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/anndetail.asp?annid=1264 We're going to launch a better weather news website soon... this one is a bit under resourced at the moment!

Hope all is well with everyone. :-)
Phil.
That's fine, but it's a pity that "News squawk" is so incredibly irritating - loads of advertisments delivered at shouting and screaming level, newsreaders and reporters who gabble furiously and then gasp for breath, .... I won't go on with the rest of what is a very long list. I just try to tune in at about the time the local forecast is due, or get my information from a more sedate source.
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by NZstorm »

"News squawk"
Its a good show in the mornings with Leighton Smith. (CH,WN miss this). But the midday weather presentation is done in about 3 words and often I'm scratching my head to know what was meant!
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by Michael »

I think its Justin Defrain on 2ZB and Robin Harris or something on 3ZB.No rain Just the usual wind 18°
100.6 is boring in the week though the weekend programme is good on live.ZB too much sport on weekends otherwise its 1ZB all week or Coast.
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by Michael »

I suppose we could put Radio stations in off topic though Leigton usually gives a more descripitive forecast rather than at Night I heard,Weather Cloudy or Fine with no wind direction or temperatures.
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Re: Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Unread post by RWood »

Getting a bit off-topic I suppose. I'd rather get my weather from Nat. programme or a quick-news music station like Breeze where it's all more low-key. "Squawk" hosts obey the right of centre business agenda of their owners and I don't listen to them.
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