Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 10/04/2008 19:38

The airmass over the North Island next week could end up being quite unstable. Looks like moist subtropical air will be advected onto northern regions while the upper air stays relatively cool. Thunderstorms! Hope this prognosis verifies.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 10/04/2008 19:41

Wooo hooo

The CAPE values for the middle of nex week look VERY healthy too.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 10/04/2008 21:44

NZstorm wrote:The airmass over the North Island next week could end up being quite unstable. Looks like moist subtropical air will be advected onto northern regions while the upper air stays relatively cool. Thunderstorms! Hope this prognosis verifies.

Friday looks promising at the moment for the South Island, but then things could or will change by then

JohnGaul
NZTS

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 11/04/2008 08:40

Back to warm nights next week for the north with the higher dewpoint air moving in , above 18C in the ealy part of the week

.

Could also be very wet.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 11/04/2008 21:24

Looks like the kind of situation that can give BOP very heavy rainfall. Northerly flow, moist, unstable, and a possible slow moving front. Too early for details but next week could be interesting.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Fri 11/04/2008 22:33

any change from this boring, great weather summer/drought would be great. LETS SEE SOME ACTION PLEASE MOTHER NATURE. we are well over due

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 11/04/2008 23:06

j--me--h wrote:any change from this boring, great weather summer/drought would be great. LETS SEE SOME ACTION PLEASE MOTHER NATURE. we are well over due

Yes, well

We have to get rid of this cumbersome anticyclone first.

(Theres no bored smilie??)
The next one looks more intense sadly but that is not due until next WE

Should be some thunder and rain in between, fingers and arses crossed

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sat 12/04/2008 08:38

Unfortunately for most(going by the radio etc) being mid April its been "downgraded" from Tuesday to Monday now Sunday morning since yesterday morning.More time to stay indoors and get used to playing tiddlywinks again.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Sat 12/04/2008 12:57

C'mon Michael, you know you really enjoy it.

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Sat 12/04/2008 18:41

whats going on up north at the moment?

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Sat 12/04/2008 19:22

what chu talkin about willis? i see some drizzly rain...
although on the sat loop i do see an area of large convection just flared up in the past few hours, lots of lightning in it too. its heading for northland.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 12/04/2008 19:52

yes, my boltec is picking up strikes to the my NNW (but they are being plotted closer than they actualy are (they are closer to Norfolk Island then North Cape))

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Sat 12/04/2008 21:25

Oh

well that sucks lol, come on in lightning

Manukau heads observer wrote:yes, my boltec is picking up strikes to the my NNW (but they are being plotted closer than they actualy are (they are closer to Norfolk Island then North Cape))

Manukau heads obs · Sat 12/04/2008 22:26

see here:
http://www.weather-display.com/windy/gb ... pfile.html

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 13/04/2008 08:32

A warm night for the North, down to 16C in Auckland, dewpoint 13C .
I see Dunedin Airport was on 1C ? at 6am but Gore was on 5C, Oamaru 7C, Qtwn 2C.

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Sun 13/04/2008 09:47

the cloud layer approaching us seems to be dying out

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 13/04/2008 10:18

the cloud layer approaching us seems to be dying out

Yes, running into ridging. The dynamics for convection should improve by tomorrow so the front should start blowing up again.

GFS is suggesting snow to below 500m in the lower South Island end of week! (850mb temps -5C)

Manukau heads obs · Sun 13/04/2008 10:51

yesterdays shower lines was due to convergence more than anything though, around the top of the high...

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 13/04/2008 11:08

NZstorm wrote:

GFS is suggesting snow to below 500m in the lower South Island end of week! (850mb temps -5C)

I'd agree with that

The next anticyclone seems to be lower in the higher latitudes. Does this make sense?

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 13/04/2008 11:49

High latitudes are ie south and furthur ie poleward.So exciting Leaves clogging the spouting to be soon turned to mush.Hope we just get one really good wind preferably NE or NW to bring them all down in 1 hit instead of 2 months of this agony

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Sun 13/04/2008 12:42

Metservice has a watch out for us on Tuesday. Could get interesting. May 05 wasn't that long ago, still remember it vividly. Only this time my employer will be out of luck, I'll be going straight home, not waiting for a state of civil defence emergency and my employer subsequently releasing me.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 13/04/2008 14:00

Yes tgsnoopy, 2005 comes to mind. It will be a similar set up with low pressure to the west of the NI and moist unstable air coming into the region from the north. But with convective weather it can be hit and miss. In 2005 there was a couple of thunderstorms that did a lot of the damage. There was a 1hr fall of 95mm near Matata.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 13/04/2008 14:35

The rainfall dump over the Bay of Islands area last autumn comes to mind, a narrow band of Cb firing up on a very slow moving Front.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 13/04/2008 16:04

I am surprised at how much the risk of heavy rain areas on the sever weather outlook go by the newly available to the public detailed rain models....too much reliance is placed on those I think...which change alot every run...

rawdon · Unread post by **rawdon** » Sun 13/04/2008 16:21

Brian ..Hi , Steve in Upper Hutt. I can assure you that the so called "new model rainfall info" posted on the MetService website is only one of many models that are used for daily forecasting in the New Zealand region. Paul Mallinson explained the use and shortcomings of the info a few weeks ago. MetService uses multiple model into .. I am sorry but you are incorrect in your comments. Pleae dont take it to heart!!!

rgds
Steve

NZ Weather Forum

Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?

Re: When's it going to rain?