Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- NZstorm
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Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18
The airmass over the North Island next week could end up being quite unstable. Looks like moist subtropical air will be advected onto northern regions while the upper air stays relatively cool. Thunderstorms! Hope this prognosis verifies.
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Re: When's it going to rain?
Wooo hooo
The CAPE values for the middle of nex week look VERY healthy too.
The CAPE values for the middle of nex week look VERY healthy too.
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Re: When's it going to rain?
Friday looks promising at the moment for the South Island, but then things could or will change by thenNZstorm wrote:The airmass over the North Island next week could end up being quite unstable. Looks like moist subtropical air will be advected onto northern regions while the upper air stays relatively cool. Thunderstorms! Hope this prognosis verifies.
JohnGaul
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JohnGaul
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NZThS
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Re: When's it going to rain?
Back to warm nights next week for the north with the higher dewpoint air moving in , above 18C in the ealy part of the week .
Could also be very wet.
Could also be very wet.
- NZstorm
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Re: When's it going to rain?
Looks like the kind of situation that can give BOP very heavy rainfall. Northerly flow, moist, unstable, and a possible slow moving front. Too early for details but next week could be interesting.
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Re: When's it going to rain?
any change from this boring, great weather summer/drought would be great. LETS SEE SOME ACTION PLEASE MOTHER NATURE. we are well over due
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Re: When's it going to rain?
Yes, well We have to get rid of this cumbersome anticyclone first. (Theres no bored smilie??)j--me--h wrote:any change from this boring, great weather summer/drought would be great. LETS SEE SOME ACTION PLEASE MOTHER NATURE. we are well over due
The next one looks more intense sadly but that is not due until next WE
Should be some thunder and rain in between, fingers and arses crossed
JohnGaul
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JohnGaul
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- Michael
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Re: When's it going to rain?
Unfortunately for most(going by the radio etc) being mid April its been "downgraded" from Tuesday to Monday now Sunday morning since yesterday morning.More time to stay indoors and get used to playing tiddlywinks again.
- Vertigo
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Re: When's it going to rain?
what chu talkin about willis? i see some drizzly rain...
although on the sat loop i do see an area of large convection just flared up in the past few hours, lots of lightning in it too. its heading for northland.
although on the sat loop i do see an area of large convection just flared up in the past few hours, lots of lightning in it too. its heading for northland.
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Re: When's it going to rain?
yes, my boltec is picking up strikes to the my NNW (but they are being plotted closer than they actualy are (they are closer to Norfolk Island then North Cape))
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Re: When's it going to rain?
Oh well that sucks lol, come on in lightning
Manukau heads observer wrote:yes, my boltec is picking up strikes to the my NNW (but they are being plotted closer than they actualy are (they are closer to Norfolk Island then North Cape))
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Re: When's it going to rain?
A warm night for the North, down to 16C in Auckland, dewpoint 13C .
I see Dunedin Airport was on 1C ? at 6am but Gore was on 5C, Oamaru 7C, Qtwn 2C.
I see Dunedin Airport was on 1C ? at 6am but Gore was on 5C, Oamaru 7C, Qtwn 2C.
- NZstorm
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Re: When's it going to rain?
Yes, running into ridging. The dynamics for convection should improve by tomorrow so the front should start blowing up again.the cloud layer approaching us seems to be dying out
GFS is suggesting snow to below 500m in the lower South Island end of week! (850mb temps -5C)
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Re: When's it going to rain?
yesterdays shower lines was due to convergence more than anything though, around the top of the high...
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Re: When's it going to rain?
NZstorm wrote:
GFS is suggesting snow to below 500m in the lower South Island end of week! (850mb temps -5C)
I'd agree with that
The next anticyclone seems to be lower in the higher latitudes. Does this make sense?
JohnGaul
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- Michael
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Re: When's it going to rain?
High latitudes are ie south and furthur ie poleward.So exciting Leaves clogging the spouting to be soon turned to mush.Hope we just get one really good wind preferably NE or NW to bring them all down in 1 hit instead of 2 months of this agony
- tgsnoopy
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Re: When's it going to rain?
Metservice has a watch out for us on Tuesday. Could get interesting. May 05 wasn't that long ago, still remember it vividly. Only this time my employer will be out of luck, I'll be going straight home, not waiting for a state of civil defence emergency and my employer subsequently releasing me.
- NZstorm
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Re: When's it going to rain?
Yes tgsnoopy, 2005 comes to mind. It will be a similar set up with low pressure to the west of the NI and moist unstable air coming into the region from the north. But with convective weather it can be hit and miss. In 2005 there was a couple of thunderstorms that did a lot of the damage. There was a 1hr fall of 95mm near Matata.
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Re: When's it going to rain?
The rainfall dump over the Bay of Islands area last autumn comes to mind, a narrow band of Cb firing up on a very slow moving Front.
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Re: When's it going to rain?
I am surprised at how much the risk of heavy rain areas on the sever weather outlook go by the newly available to the public detailed rain models....too much reliance is placed on those I think...which change alot every run...
Re: When's it going to rain?
Brian ..Hi , Steve in Upper Hutt. I can assure you that the so called "new model rainfall info" posted on the MetService website is only one of many models that are used for daily forecasting in the New Zealand region. Paul Mallinson explained the use and shortcomings of the info a few weeks ago. MetService uses multiple model into .. I am sorry but you are incorrect in your comments. Pleae dont take it to heart!!!
rgds
Steve
rgds
Steve