NZ Weather Forum

Still a few days out, but the COLA chart for friday looks interesting for Fiordland and the south of the south island, with the 540 line over the MacKenzie. Could be the first good snowfall for the mountains for the upcoming winter? The weather may make my planned boat trip up lake Te Anau from saturday through to tuesday interesting.

Looking cold at this stage, first good southerly surge.

Where are heading to up the lake Southernthrash?

Models suggest light snow could fall as low as 500m in the deep south. Maybe some coastal thunder/hail as far north as Dunedin.

COLA Certainly doesn't seem to be backing down too much, infact the precip levels have lifted since I first noticed this.

Andy, heading to Glaisnock hut, for a bit of fishing/exploring/wakeboarding, although I might have to take a dive suit to get any wakeboarding done, it aint gonna be warm!

Looks very unstable Friday around the coast Southland/South Otago with a little thunder/hail for Invercargill and Dunedin. As that cold air goes north late Friday it will take a thunderstorm or two with it but these will be off shore over the warmer sea, affecting Banks Peninsula Saturday morning. Snow to 500m in the Catlins! Thats my synopsis after a quick peak at models.

Metservice for Dunedin tomorrow: "Showers, heavy, thundery. ..."

Man I like the sound of that!

Tomorrow could get interesting i think it could be very simular to the storm scenario we had a few weeks ago.
Isolated heavy thundery showers should push into south canterbury by late afternoon/evening on the intial cold windchange but perhaps getting motivation from the stronger and even colder surge after dark.
This should then develope the CB's further north into mid canterbury at night with a thunder/ hail scenario.
I think with such a cold surge of air coming up i would say the possibility of storms should be quite good, just a case of wether they manage to stay onshore.
Should be chilly in the south though with snow to low levels down there.
Cheers
Jason.

I think it will be just the normal winter SW we get here in chch -not much weather at all, so lets not have a repeat of last winter on this forum

Yes, the models havn't buckled in a week on this one. A very nasty looking polar rodent.

Blue Skies is predicting a few possible thundery showers for Canterbury tomorrow afternoon, but MetService isn't. (they only have them for Otago and Southland) Sounds very like a 'critical' southwesterly situation tomorrow.

I've been forecasting this since last week.
It's just a 'see what happens' scenario now. I hope it is a good one or

JohnGaul
NZTS

I see the thundery showers are already into Southland, on cue. Thunder risk is likely to migrate north of Otago early Saturday, getting as far north as Wellington tomorrow. All very coastal though. Yes John, you mentioned this set up last Thursday!

We are having a sleet shower in Gore at the moment and there is snow on the hills down to about 300m.

Thanks for that report tidd66. The Catlins area in particular is in for an interesting day.

Well its cold, wet and windy here. I'm so excited I was sick of the boring weather. Potential of the first snow of the season, potential hail and thunderstorms it couldn't get much better.

3 degrees in Dunedin...

Trademe poster reported 'pea to marble sized hail' early this morning in Waimate. Nothing here in Chch (yet) but cold with cloud and a fresh cold wind.

We had sleet then flurries around 8.15am at our house. Beautiful sunshine at present with another wave coming soon. Hope there's a thunder or two in the next one

Uni weather station in Dunedin has recorded a temperature drop of 7.6 to 3.8 degC since 7.05 am. Just had a good heavy but breif shower come through. Weather is atrocious in Invercargill by all accounts. Driving from Dunedin to Invercargill later today, will take the Clinton-Mataura road and hopefully see a bit of white stuff, a flake or two would be nice. Mountains around Queenstown got a dusting over night, though I think they'll get a bit more by the end of today.

It was rather cold this morning with the southerly wind also a few light showers, thought the thunder chances were a no show this morning.
But now things are shaping up really well, the sun is out we have lost the southerly and its currently a NE sea breeze which will be great up against the cold surge coming up.
Cheers
Jason.

NE here too Jason ...and I can see some lumpy Cu development to the SW from here
Keep your fingers and arses crossed

JohnGaul
NZTS

Sporadic drops of rain now with rather unstable looking skies and towering CU high up, still NE but cool.
Cheers
Jason.

Proper rain now. Not heavy though, but steady

yeh the weather certainly has looked unstable from about lunch time onwards to me.
And now looking very good, i think all ingredients are right, just we don't have much heating of the day left and its getting rather cool outside now.
We'll see though what a better way to start off the beautiful weekend with a bang on fri night yehhaaa!

and now i see massive cu down south colliding with this NE breeze we have aswel. all coming together. S definatly coming