Eh? On what scale?A MetService spokesman said tornadoes were fluky and rare in New Zealand, and were impossible to accurately predict.
This particular thunderstorm/MCS was no where near the cold air but rather downstream of the sub-tropical moisture. On a synoptic scale they're right.. but not even close on a meso scale.. which is what i'm gathering they're suggesting from this statement. The low-level shear that wasn't mentioned was the killer blow this time yesterday.They were a combination of factors driven by unstable weather conditions, with cold unstable air hitting warm air, and were more likely to emerge during thunderstorms.
Attached is the 3am IR satellite, 900mb wind vectors for 3am Wednesday and wind field over inland Hawke's Bay (GDAS analysis)
Looks like a third run of this type of system is due this Sunday / Monday again too.. someone will have to start a new thread!