NZ Weather Forum

Looks as though there may be a bit of a cold snap from Wednseday for the eastern South Island, at the moment, as a low tries to organize itself off the east coast of the South Island.
This low looks to be apart of a trough that may hang around right through to next WE, replacing the anticyclonic trend that we have been going through for the last couple of months. Phew
I thought I would start a new thread on this from Micheals "Start of May" topic.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Wednesday could be a thunder/hail day in Canterbury John. Looking like very cold unstable airmass will spread across the South Island on Wednesday and still be there Thursday. Snow down to 600m, possibly as low as 300m in Southland/South Otago Thursday. Looking like a complex weather situation with low pressure deepening just to the east of the SI so maybe a bit early for details.

Well MS say it was 24 in Chch at noon. They say 16 in Dunedin but it feels more like 20. I see Kaikoura and Gisborne are also on 24, these are quite warm temps for late April. Hopefully its the warm before the storm.

26.6 here now, 25.1 at Jeff's station. It is quite warm.

Imagine if these days happened in may, would be very warm for may! Only a few days to go

They do, as well as June, July and August

26 degree days I mean! And more specifically Christchurch

NZstorm wrote:Wednesday could be a thunder/hail day in Canterbury John. Looking like very cold unstable airmass will spread across the South Island on Wednesday and still be there Thursday. Snow down to 600m, possibly as low as 300m in Southland/South Otago Thursday. Looking like a complex weather situation with low pressure deepening just to the east of the SI so maybe a bit early for details.

I say it will be very cold and quite windy with strong SW. One that Jim will tell you to 'top up the wood-box'
...and then clear up to nothing much/boring weather again???


JohnGaul
NZTS

Certainly looks a strong cold airmass behind the trough approaching NZ from the Tasman. Already a wintry blast has lashed SE Oz, with Adelaide having its coldest April max for 26 years (14C) on Saturday, and snow as far north as the NSW Central Tablelands.

Orange looks pretty cold and has frosts.. - just read its 947m up! Never knew it was that high!

Latest forecast from Metservice has the cold snap lasting until Saturday!

Thunderstorm risks too Hope they happen

Alot of dark but rugged CU forms spilling over from the west at the moment, certainly should be very active on the west coast.
Maybe a splash or two later, but not too bad with a warm 24C and a fresh Northerly.
I am not quite sure where MS gets the risk for thunderstorms tomorrow during the morning, to me it looks more likly if anything to happen late afternoon/ evening when the colder surge of air arrives and the freezing level drops.
Should be some good sized hail too along with a good southerly buster.
We shall see ive been watching this system and the next 48hrs should be interesting for NZ.
Cheers
Jason.

Yay! Winter.

Alternating grey and blue over the Mackenzie. Some rain but far too warm for anything else.

The general consensus amongst locals is for another (very) mild winter, possibly with more rain and probably less snow than previous years.

Oh hai Gary. What would the locals know eh? Feelin it in their bones? I think this is gonna be more of a Fiordland/Southland/East Otago system again. Doesn't seem to be as much potential for precip over Canterbury in anything I've looked at so far. Alpine heliski will be pleased with the way the weather is going so far...

The rain can stay down south to fill the lakes,We dont need anymore now.The weeds are high,the lawn needs mowing.The washing needs hanging out side also We dont need powercuts up here

Gary Roberts wrote:Yay! Winter.

Alternating grey and blue over the Mackenzie. Some rain but far too warm for anything else.

The general consensus amongst locals is for another (very) mild winter, possibly with more rain and probably less snow than previous years.

Michael wrote:The rain can stay down south to fill the lakes,We dont need anymore now.The weeds are high,the lawn needs mowing.The washing needs hanging out side also We dont need powercuts up here

The lakes could certainly use some inflow. We're currently in the grey phase right now and rain appears imminent, but we've been fooled before!

There is no sense of impending Action Weather of any kind, though.

Doesn't seem to be as much potential for precip over Canterbury in anything I've looked at so far

Canterbury will get snow. How much and to what level we'll have to see. But looks an active situation to me due to very unstable airmass.

No doubt there will be some, didn't word that other post very well, it just looks to me like the heaviest will occur in Fiordland, Southland and East Otago.

The hydro lakes really do need water, and if it doesn't come soon, it won't at all through winter. Even Te Anau is ridiculously low.

NZstorm wrote:

Doesn't seem to be as much potential for precip over Canterbury in anything I've looked at so far

Canterbury will get snow. How much and to what level we'll have to see. But looks an active situation to me due to very unstable airmass.

It's threatening to rain here but there's a lot more barking than biting.

Temperature is still in the double-figures too. We may see some light snow on the tops tomorrow night, probably not a lot more than a dusting and it'll soon be rinsed away by the rain.

Nobody around here is lamenting the death of Ye Olde Style Winteres.

Nobody around here is lamenting the death of Ye Olde Style Winteres.

I'm sure last winter was a big one for the curling down there.

These days it's always a race to whack a few stones around before the ice disappears.

The way the lakes are looking, you'll be playing lawn bowls!

Gary Roberts wrote:It's threatening to rain here but there's a lot more barking than biting.

Temperature is still in the double-figures too. We may see some light snow on the tops tomorrow night, probably not a lot more than a dusting and it'll soon be rinsed away by the rain.

Nobody around here is lamenting the death of Ye Olde Style Winteres.

You poor uneducated fellow, haha.

How long have you lived in the Mackenzie? Most of the locals I've had anything to do with know the double figure rule well, it does seem to work best a bit later in the season though.

What is an Olde Style Wintere?

You may also be interested to know that last year, curling was taking place on ponds and reservoirs where it has never previously been able to occur

Andrew Massie wrote:The way the lakes are looking, you'll be playing lawn bowls!

The lake levels have been lower than this and quite recently. The fear is, of course, that we're heading into another dry, winterless winter, like the ones we've experienced the last few years and so there'll be little inflow to top up the lakes when the power is going to be needed the most.

I don't see a problem: with the economy about to collapse, nobody will be able to afford the electricity anyway and all that running around and looting for survival will keep them warm.

By "them", I refer to the proletariat; we canny electricity industry elite have been hoarding supplies for quite some time and will laugh uproariously at the sight of those who wasted their money on "investment property" fighting each other for a scrap of bread and some old lettuce leaves.

Perhaps they can survive on baked iPods and sauteed party pills. That tricked-out 4WD will come in very handy as shelter once their house has been mortgageed. So long as they stay ahead of the bailiffs. Which will be hard to do without Diesel. Hmmm. 'Tis good to own a remote mountaintop, it really is.