Unstable low upper north Sunday/Monday

[NZstorm]

Since i'm putting a post up on the low due to affect northern NZ next 48hrs thought I should start a new thread. Latest models are supportive of moist (dp 15C), unstable air (CAPE 800j/kg) getting as far south Auckland with this system. Warm frontal rain spreads quickly across the North Island after midday tomorrow and a cold front moves onto Northland during the evening. This cold front looks like it should be a good trigger for thunderstorms. Thunder risk persists over Northland and Auckland Monday.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Looking good for you guys up there,judging by the latest satellitte picture. I notice too, our low looks good to the east of the SI, I thought it would do this, as it would pull away from , say Bank Peninsula, South Island ?

JohnGaul
NZTS

[tich]

The cold southerly air behind the low to the east should be weakening, but still looks like being around tomorrow. With cloud and rain moving down over northern and central North Island, it looks like being a pretty chilly day there. MetService is predicting a high of only 10C in Rotorua tomorrow.

[jamie]

Bah! damn chiefs can annoy me!! hope we get some thunder storms from this. Be good to take my mind of the rugby loss. We did what the AB's couldnt at the world cup (drop goal with 3 mins to go)..but managed to throw the game away.
I actually havnt been following this one like last weeks one..what are the chances of some isolated Tstorms and not embeded ones in the rain band over auckland?

[Manukau heads obs]

looking good this system
rain started already here this morning from the warm front
lots of CB's behind the cold front too
should be some thunderstorms over northland today (I have picked up some strikes on the cold front wiht my boltec), which might just get down into auckland this arvo? (as the whole thing rotates around)
NE wind arrived at 1am, replacing the SW wind ..took only about 45 minutes for that transition!

[Vertigo]

first rainband heading for hamz now, rain has ceased here for now.

[Manukau heads obs]

http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... ormoutlook

confirmed, its should be an interesting day!

[Michael]

Wonder if they got rid of the drought junket committee in Wellington by now.looks though winter has immediately replaced summer without autumn here with this pattern.

[David]

Sure is colder than normal! Overcast, light to moderate rain and 12C (low was 8C) this morning...2mm since about 7.30am. A good sign that despite the colder surface temperatures today there is some lightning in the very far north.

[spwill]

We are in the cold air this morn, 13C. Warmer air should move down from the North, I hope.

[NZstorm]

Cape Reinga dewpoint now 15C so moist air moving in quick. Also a thunderstorm up there.

Off the topic here but this early start to winter has caught the long range forecasters out. I thought we were gonna have a warm La Nina autume. Sure, it may get milder again but the near term outlook looks cooler than norm.

[Manukau heads obs]

that always seems to happen, the opposite occurs as soon as the season forecast is made
but its for a 3 month period, so a few weeks of colder than normal temperatures should get made up at some stage over the 3 month season period I guess
Tasman sea surface temperatures are not as much above normal as they were now though...19oC now off Piha

marine forecast now has a squall warning for late afternoon/evening,..with the northerly change...

i see the auckland rain radar is offline again....just when its needed the most

[C-Nimbus]

Latest sat images etc show a very impressive pool of Cb's in the tazzie off the NI's west coast (still very far off land though). A few mm's of rain here thus far as some heavyish bands are moving down from northland.

Fingers crossed for some evening/nightime lighning shows eh

[jamie]

boy there is some good inflow over the city at the moment. got skud rising very quikly and twisting all over the place. shows there is some instability around.

[tgsnoopy]

This is the kind of weather they have had in Sydney last week. Hopefully it'll be better over there when I fly over on Tuesday.

Currently 11.3°C outside here, light drizzle, pretty miserable day with little breeze.

[jamie]

Been getting some good heavy rain most of the day so far...not warm either

[David]

Just been light rain since about an hour ago here - 2mm last hour.
We had 4.5mm until about 10.30am. Nothing exciting at all so far
Annoying that the rain radar is down - I can't see whether or not we'll get some heavy rain or not...just have to wait

[Manukau heads obs]

i see there is a nearly 3oC difference between here and Auckland at the moment!
only 11.9oC here

[jamie]

Must have had about an inch of rain so far out of this system. Maby closer to 30mm. But thats just a guess. The rain is coming in from the SE now which is interesting .....so it isnt warm at all. The big clock across the road is saying its 13 but it feels a damn site colder than that.

[Peter]

It seems like Auckland radar goes down everytime we have any extended heavy rain? Is this so? And why?

[Manukau heads obs]

we are finally getting into the warmer air here now,a bit.. with a change to more E wind instead of SE
we have not had as much rain as Ricky here ...yet

[Cameo1]

Yes, I am very curious also as to why the rain radar is so often failing us! Seems like they don't want us to see them getting the forcast so wrong

[Manukau heads obs]

what was wrong about the forecast?
although i see the marine forecast has downgraded the wind alot....

NZStorm, so far, you have been on the money....more action over northland (lightning ativity wise)

[Cameo1]

I thought it was supposed to be 45 knot winds this afternoon, with seas dangerous for boaties

[Vertigo]

has anyone seen any lightning yet in auckland?