Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

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Vertigo
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Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by Vertigo »

Looking a bit further ahead, seems we may be in for some wet. Im seeing a low intersecting a polar front right on us and invigorating. Well have to see how the weeks models progress, but I thought id start a thread on it.

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... noofdays=7
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by gopolks »

Should be fun to follow this thread and see if things come true.
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by Michael »

Need it down in the west coast of the SI which looks bugger all.We'll be in serious problems soon this way as we use our dryers etc while nothing falls where required.Not enough NWers.
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

The ECMWF also have a slow moving period of trough weather over this period and into the week as well. :-k
This may or may not be lake filling weather, sadly despite the presence of lows :(
...but then could be?

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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by Ryan Thomas »

Low risk of heavy rain here this weekend? Noooo I want a fine calm weekend. Also -4 in Christchurch overnight at airport. -3 at Jeffs... Very cold for the start of May! Christchurch's record low is -7 isnt it?
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by David »

This upcoming unsettled weather looks like it could last beyond the 12th! I'm seeing potential for MORE significant rainfall or heavy falls coming up Sunday through Tuesday at this stage....not sure exactly when, but looks like there'll be a fair bit coming down. This will be 3rd successive low to pass over NZ I think?

Metservice had Ak going down to 7 tonight in yesterday's forecast, changed it to 10...currently 8 degrees outside at the moment! Looks to be a cold night nation-wide!
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by Ryan Thomas »

And whats this global warming they speak of? :P And more rain? Assume it wont' be as cold as the last southerly that made Christchurch a rather chilly place for a few days?
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by Inny Binny »

Well, although I believe global warming is overhyped, judgements based on immediate weather are silly.

More significant rain? Well, I wouldn't mind it here, but Auckland and other parts of NI don't really need it.
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by Lawrence »

Ryan Thomas wrote: Very cold for the start of May! Christchurch's record low is -7 isnt it?
Yeah, I think so. If I remember it was on the 8th June last year, it was absolutely freezing. It will be interesting to see if that records broken this year as its already got down to -3.8 here yesterday morning @ 07:26 8-[
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by TonyT »

For the Botanic Gardens, last year got to -4.5, which was the coldest since -4.5 in 1979, and a -5.4 in 1975. The record low was -5.9 in 1878. No doubt the Airport site gets colder.
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by Lawrence »

Just been looking at a few models on this one, just a thought :-k though its a bit early. But as this low moves off to the east and dumps a fair amount of rain,there could be a slight chance as a high builds towards the south Tasman it could turn cold for a short time and eventuate the rain turning to snow on the higher ground say 400m, but this depends on the way the Low moves off and how quickly the high fills obviously but just a thought.
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by Gary Roberts »

I won't even speculate on today's weather, letalone next week's!

:lol:
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by Ryan Thomas »

Christchurch's coldest minimum ever isn't that cold when you compare it to some other locations (data off NIWA's website) Tauranga's gone down to -5.3... Hamilton -9.9 (didn't think it could get that low even tho its inland), Gisborne -5.3, Blenheim -8.8, and it says Christchurch is -7.1 (airport I assume). So airport must be fairly colder then the gardens, I'm surprised they haven't decided to measure it in the Gardens..
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by Lawrence »

As I was thinking earlier :-k

Friday 09-May-2008 to Monday 12-May-2008

Issued by MetService at 2:12pm Wednesday 07th May 2008

A large trough is expected to move onto New Zealand on Friday and persist over the country during the weekend bringing unsettled weather to many parts of New Zealand.

Heavy rain is likely to affect the South Island west coast on Friday morning,and both a Severe Weather Warning and a Severe Weather Watch are currently in force for these areas.

In the south of the South Island, a cold southerly should bring rain and snow to areas from South Canterbury to Southland on Friday. At this stage forecasters are unsure how low the snow will fall, but it is possible some heavy snow could fall as low as 400 metres as indicated on the chart.

In the North Island, a slow-moving low and associated front are likely to bring a period of heavy rain to the north and east of the North Island. At this stage , the most likely areas for heavy rain are eastern areas from Coromandel Peninsula to Hawkes Bay, but there may also be some brief heavy rain about Northland on Friday.

Further unsettled weather is likely on Monday and Tuesday.

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2008
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Has been very cold over the last two days, well.. mornings anyway!! in the negatives maybe signs of things to come but colder still in the middle of winter brrrr
Well good now to see some models showing cold wintry stuff coming or developing. come on 2008 bring us some awesome snow events!! :D
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by Ryan Thomas »

Going to be a warm morning today compared to the recent freezing ones! :) And hopefully it rains in the lakes down south.
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by Michael »

Inny Binny wrote:Well, although I believe global warming is overhyped, judgements based on immediate weather are silly.

More significant rain? Well, I wouldn't mind it here, but Auckland and other parts of NI don't really need it.
No we dont.As far as the first sentence its hyped like y2k which never effected anyone apart from peoples wallets.
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by RWood »

Says one who had nothing to do with preventing the problems occurring....

Anyone who had anything to do with large computer installations knows that they put off doing program changes until they became really urgent. Naturally later consultants were able to exploit this. Doesn't alter the fact that a lot of code had to be altered or upgraded.
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by Lawrence »

Quite surprised that M/S haven’t mentioned anything about the wind strength as this low spins off, 8-[ looking at it's potential and movement it looks to me that Bay of Plenty and Gisborne could get windy for a time between Saturday and Sunday. :-k
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by jrj »

http://www.hbtoday.co.nz/localnews/stor ... ubsection=

They could be in for another bashing this weekend....
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

very nice CB tops visible from here this morning in the Bay of Plenty (as predicted by met service severe thunderstorm outlook (good stuff there guys) (wind convergence area))
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Lawrence
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by Lawrence »

James wrote:http://www.hbtoday.co.nz/localnews/stor ... ubsection=

They could be in for another bashing this weekend....
A very interesting read there James.
Apparently Te Awanga has experienced significant coastal erosion and flooding in the past estimated to be approximately 0.3 metres per year due to the fact that the soil consists of late tertiary fluvial gravels,underlain with gravely subsoils,and with well-graded sand subsoils.Clifton is located on gravels,with sedimentary sands,silts and gravels close to the hills. Not sure if I would buy a house close to the sea there,well not for any long term investment anyway. 8-[ The Regional Coastal Hazard Assessment has identified much of Clifton as being in the Current Erosion Risk Zone,it is also apparently susceptible to inundation from stormwater flowing off the hills to the west,but storm surge causing coastal erosion is a major problem and a high risk for some properties.Wonder why that is :roll: There are a variety of shoreline protection options,but are currently in a degraded state and of doubtful effectiveness as stated in the report.Don't you just hate red tape with councils. ](*,)They might finally make a decision one day only to find everything been washed out to sea :roll:
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by jrj »

Yes, I have observed the Clifton Domain beach being progressively eroded over the past 58 years. Unstoppable, I would say.
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by tich »

MetService has changed from its earlier long-range outlook - now Canterbury should be mostly fine on Sunday and Monday; obviously no secondary low expected to form to the east.
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Re: Front and Low, 9th - 12th May

Unread post by Ryan Thomas »

Just dropped .9 degrees at Jeffs in 10 mins.. from 18.7 to 17.8. Nice warm day here tho, strange about that drop tho. And that'd be a nice outlook :)
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