Cold Snap For late May

[Inny Binny]

Low to the East coast,that s my baby, virtually every low level snow event for Canterbury has a low just off the east.Hope it pans out. I don't think I can take much more of this.

Exactly what it needs! Probably won't sit though. Still a couple of days away.

[Gary Roberts]

How much of this will head east before it reaches us?

According to MS, this will be a very brief event.

[Lawrence]

How much of this will head east before it reaches us?

Depends on that how that low @ 50 degrees south develops, and if that high fills. It’s too early to say and with it being an associated low and joined with 3 other lows it could get swiftly dragged away or just become a part of a larger one.

[Gary Roberts]

It's been spitting here for the last hour or so, off-and-on and the air temp is still quite high. (Speaking relatively.)

There's none of the "Hey y'all, snow's a-comin'!" vibe we usually get before a decent fall, but still early days yet.



Why, yes, I am a weatherologist!

[gopolks]

Have they raised the snow level for canterbury to 700 metres? Or am i reading an old report???

[Inny Binny]

Who's 'they'? MetService still have it at 400m, BlueSkies at 700m.

[Gary Roberts]

Well, we've have mostly-steady-but-very light rain here in Omarama since this evening. It's been spitting in Twizel, but nothing more. Lake Tekapo has had nothing. The temperature has refused to budge below 5 °C. So far so bad for Action Weather, but fingers crossed and all that.

[Inny Binny]

The snow over there isn't anywhere near due yet Gary.

...

[Michael]

TVNZ gave 6/12° for Christchurch.I dont think it snow that "warm" unless revised.

[Lawrence]

Predicted rain fall has fallen quite a bit to more realistic levels I think. Proberly because of the lack of moisture in the cold air. I’ll put my neck on the line and say Saturday night is still my preferred choice at the moment for snow/sleet to low levels in Christchurch. Clear with a bit of high cloud here in Christchurch CBD at the moment and about 6 degrees C, Expecting to see something advance up from the south or along the coast about 11:00 hrs

[Lawrence]

TVNZ gave 6/12° for Christchurch.I dont think it snow that "warm" unless revised.

No your right there, but remember that Christchurch is quite near see level, estimates of the precipitation out of this front are snow down to 400m-700m and rain/sleet at heights less than that down to see level. We need at least a temprature of around 2 degrees C to have any chance of decent dry snow in Christchurch low lying areas.Also the temprature is proberly a pre-frontal temp,as the front drags in the cold air under the warm, the drop should be fairly sharp.

[gllitz]

Predicted rain fall has fallen quite a bit to more realistic levels I think. Proberly because of the lack of moisture in the cold air. I’ll put my neck on the line and say Saturday night is still my preferred choice at the moment for snow/sleet to low levels in Christchurch. Clear with a bit of high cloud here in Christchurch CBD at the moment and about 6 degrees C, Expecting to see something advance up from the south or along the coast about 11:00 hrs

Sorry, Karsh, as much as I'd like to see it, I just don't think it's gonna happen...chilly, yes...snow/sleet, no....

[Lawrence]

quote]Sorry, Karsh, as much as I'd like to see it, I just don't think it's gonna happen...chilly, yes...snow/sleet, no....

Not even a little tiny amount on Sugarloaf?

Yeah, must admit it's a bit of a long shot,and these models can change at a hell of a rate with a complex system like the one we have got at the moment.We await the gods

just In

{SWW Event 2008/23.6}
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST IN:
SOUTHLAND FIORDLAND OTAGO WESTLAND CANTERBURY

NOT TO BE BROADCAST AFTER 9:00pm Thursday 22-May-2008

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 8:20 am 22-May-2008
EAVY SNOWFALLS STILL EXPECTED ABOVE 600 METRES IN NORTHERN SOUTHLAND, INLAND OTAGO AND SOUTH CANTERBURY TODAY, BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 400 METRES

A front over southern New Zealand is expected to move only slowly northwards today and lie from Westland across to the Kaikoura Coast by midnight. The front is followed by widespread rain and cold southerlies, which are currently affecting Southland and Otago and should spread into much of South Canterbury this morning. The rain is expected to turn to heavy snow above 600 metres during the morning, with significant snowfalls still possible down to 400 or 500 metres in some places. 10 to 20cm of snow is still likely above 600 metres from this morning through to tonight, with 5 to 10cm possible in some areas as low as 400 to 500 metres.
Motorists in these areas are warned that driving conditions are likely to become hazardous, especially on higher roads and passes,and may wish to check road conditions before departing. Farmers need to be prepared for significant snowfalls and may wish to take steps to shelter vulnerable animals.


FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND FORECAST CHARTS PLEASE GO TO http://metservice.com/default/index.php ... servations

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND TECHNICAL USERS
FOLLOWS:
====================
HEAVY SNOW WARNING
====================

AREA/S AFFECTED: NORTHERN SOUTHLAND INLAND OTAGO AND INLAND SOUTH CANTERBURY.
FORECAST:

NORTHERN SOUTHLAND AND INLAND OTAGO ABOVE ABOUT 400 METRES Cold rain is expected to turn to heavy snow above 600 metres this morning, and may lower to 400 metres in places. In the 12 hours from 9am to 9pm Thursday 5 to 10cm of snow could fall to 400 metres. The heaviest falls are likely to be higher up, with 20cm possible above 600 metres. Snow showers are likely to continue into Friday morning, but with only a further 1 or 2cm expected.

INLAND PARTS OF SOUTH CANTERBURY ABOVE ABOUT 400 METRES Cold rain is expected to spread north this morning and turn to heavy snow above 700 metres early this afternoon. Snow may lower to 400 to 500 metres by evening.In the 12 hours from 3pm Thursday to 3am Friday,
5 to 10cm of snow may accumulate down to 400 or 500 metres.
Snowfalls of 20cm are possible above 700 metres.
=============================
WARNINGS NO LONGER IN FORCE
=============================
HEAVY RAIN WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LIFTED FOR: FIORDLAND AND WESTLAND SOUTH OF ABOUT FOX GLACIER - The rain is forecast to continue to ease today, and amounts are no longer expected to reach warning criteria.
NO FURTHER WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT FOR THE ABOVE AREAS.

NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE 9:00pm Thursday 22-May-2008

Forecast prepared by: Andy Downs

A service provided through a contract with the Crown
(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2008

[Gary Roberts]

It's going to have to get pretty cold fairly soon if this rain is to turn to snow. It's barely dipped below 5 °C all night. No snow anywhere around here, even on the top tops. The rain is, of course, welcomed, although ideally we need a lot more than has fallen!

[Lawrence]

It's going to have to get pretty cold fairly soon if this rain is to turn to snow. It's barely dipped below 5 °C all night. No snow anywhere around here, even on the top tops. The rain is, of course, welcomed, although ideally we need a lot more than has fallen!

Don't worry ,the fronts practically stationary at the moment. Waiting for the butterfly effect ,so to speak
A pre-frontal of 5 °C ain't bad ,makes me wonder how cold it is behind the front.

[Razor]

Yes folks, we'd hate to jump the gun, but as predicted by several wise sages it looks like this is a non- event for any unusual levels of snow. I deal with a lot of high country farmers and those in the Caterbury region are on the same wavelength as Gary is in regard to the outlook

[Lawrence]

Really good sat picture of the edge front slowly moving up from the south, Good to see it dragging in the warm air of the eastern sea board and the low forming near the fiords.

[Gary Roberts]

I for one never said this wouldn't or couldn't turn into a snow event. It may yet do so. My concern was primarily the premature claims that it probably or definitely would.

I still don't see this amounting to anything much, but I was wrong once before, which was a shock, since I'm otherwise infallible and tremendously good-looking.

Nice sat pic!

The light rain has eased right off now and the temp is beginning to climb, along with the barometer.

[gopolks]

I dont think you get snow when its 10 degrees and the temp is going up, and the barometer is 1008 and going up.

[Razor]

Personally I think this thread should be talking a bit more on where the action weather is going to be for the next few days- and that looks to me like the East Cape region

[Lawrence]

I dont think you get snow when its 10 degrees and the temp is going up, and the barometer is 1008 and going up.

Hold on, hold on, and don’t be so impatient. Just wait for that low to spin up.You ca'nt rush mother nature.

[gopolks]

I dont think you get snow when its 10 degrees and the temp is going up, and the barometer is 1008 and going up.

Hold on, hold on, and don’t be so impatient. Just wait for that low to spin up.You ca'nt rush mother nature.

Mother Nature owes me, for a lack of the white stuff last year, then again she was very kind 2004/2005/2006, when not only did she bring the white stuff, but it was enough for the boss to give us days off work!!!!

[southernthrash]

Whats up with some people here?

I've heard reports of 15cm through Northern Southland hills already! Snowing down that way since midnight and still going I am told.

This front is very slow moving and I don't think it will reach south canterbury till early evening.

[gopolks]

It may reach south canterbury, which is nice for them, I doubt it will even reach the top of banks pensiula.

I hope the good people of Southland are enjoying it.

10.7 degrees here, and going up. 1008 and still going up.

This is a slooooooooow moving thingy, oh well it will probably come through when im walking my dog.

[Gary Roberts]

Mother Nature owes me, for a lack of the white stuff last year, then again she was very kind 2004/2005/2006, when not only did she bring the white stuff, but it was enough for the boss to give us days off work!!!!

Pffft! I had to work! I'm waiting for a return to the 'Good Old Days(TM)', when we used to get REAL snowfalls, ones deep enough to keep 4WD work vehicles in the garages and the drivers at home! The snowfalls which lingered for months in many places. Back when many work sites could only be reached by helicopter. Not the wussy little 2-6" that lies around for a whole four days we've been getting since around 2002.

The cloud level is rising fast around here, along with the temp and baro. I can see blue sky off to the east, somewhat amazingly. If there's a cold southerly front approaching, it's going to have to be a good one to have any impact in North Otago now. What sayeth thee, Kalashnikov?