Cold Snap For late May

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 19/05/2008 13:27

Inny Binny wrote:Models have changed up a bit. THK's in the 520's?

47132492_metgram.gif

Add wind flags when your looking next time! Saves me going to look at the models!

gllitz · Unread post by **gllitz** » Mon 19/05/2008 13:34

Inny Binny wrote:Models have changed up a bit. THK's in the 520's?

47132492_metgram.gif

But not low enough for snow to sea level, Inny...cold, yes...enough for white stuff down to sea level here in CHCH...no, not this time...maybe next time.
But, do keep your eyes open

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Mon 19/05/2008 14:03

gllitz wrote:
Inny Binny wrote:Models have changed up a bit. THK's in the 520's?

47132492_metgram.gif
But not low enough for snow to sea level, Inny...cold, yes...enough for white stuff down to sea level here in CHCH...no, not this time...maybe next time.
But, do keep your eyes open

hmmm South of Timaru could sea level snow. ChCh i dont think so, not this far north. Just looking at this model run

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Mon 19/05/2008 14:29

03Stormchaser wrote:hmmm South of Timaru could sea level snow. ChCh i dont think so, not this far north. Just looking at this model run

Correct me if I'm wrong but looking at that model with the wind arrows,does it look like a low /vortex forming over the fiords or is it something else

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Mon 19/05/2008 14:40

Met service are seem to be joining in now.

Wednesday 21-May-2008 to Saturday 24-May-2008

Issued by MetService at 2:30pm Monday 19th May 2008

A weakening ridge of high pressure is forecast to cover central New Zealand on Wednesday.
A moist northeast flow is expected to bring rain or showers to northern parts of Northland during Tuesday and Wednesday, although rainfall amounts are unlikely to reach warning criteria.
Meanwhile, a front is forecast to move onto southern New Zealand during Wednesday. A moist northerly flow ahead of the front is expected to bring a period of heavy rain to Fiordland and southern Westland, with a moderate risk of rainfall amounts reaching warning criteria. There is a lessor risk of significant rainfall for the ranges of northern Westland, Buller and northwest Nelson on Thursday. A colder southerly flow is expected after the passage of the front, bringing widespread rain to Southland and Otago later on Wednesday, and parts of Canterbury on Thursday. Heavy snow is likely above 600 metres in these areas, with a low risk of significant snowfall down to about 400 metres during Thursday and Friday.
The front should cross the remainder of the country during Thursday or early Friday, with an associated area of low pressure expected to follow later on Friday or Saturday.(DOWN THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTH WE HOPE)

Rain or showers are expected for much of the country during this time, with snow possibly lowering to below 1000 metres over the Central North Island High Country on Saturday.

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2008

Inny Binny · Unread post by **Inny Binny** » Mon 19/05/2008 15:58

Add wind flags when your looking next time! Saves me going to look at the models!

I'll remember next time...

But not low enough for snow to sea level, Inny...cold, yes...enough for white stuff down to sea level here in CHCH...no, not this time...maybe next time.
But, do keep your eyes open

Yeah I realize that, but it's a million times better than the mid 540's they were showing yesterday or so ago.

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Mon 19/05/2008 16:57

Inny Binny wrote:Models have changed up a bit. THK's in the 520's?

47132492_metgram.gif

Just out of interest, what webpage do you find these charts?

Inny Binny · Unread post by **Inny Binny** » Mon 19/05/2008 17:05

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 19/05/2008 18:20

A bit of a complex situation but looks like some snow to 400m over the SI with the cold front Thurs/Fri. The cold airmass in behind the front looks like its going to be stable.

Some unstable air for the top of Northland with high risk of thunder up there Wed/Thurs.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 19/05/2008 20:02

Be colder than 13 tonight if it stays clear like it is now.

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Mon 19/05/2008 20:09

Inny Binny wrote:http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html

Thanks for the link.

Myself · Unread post by **Myself** » Mon 19/05/2008 20:31

Michael wrote:Be colder than 13 tonight if it stays clear like it is now.

The relative humidity is pretty high though (about 90%), that could hold things up for a while.

Inny Binny · Unread post by **Inny Binny** » Mon 19/05/2008 23:04

Thanks for the link.

Maybe there should be a useful links thread?

Or is there one if I've missed it?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 20/05/2008 07:11

Looking like this next snow event, if it comes off will be for inland regions. Looks like a nimbostratus cloud sheet will be slow moving over the South Island Thursday/Friday with the chance of snow to low levels inland. Exact snow levels can be hard to nail in these situations due to mesoscale influences but snow to 400m in the back country of Central Otago and Canterbury doesn't look out of the question atm. Will be good for the SI ski fields anyway.

Myself · Unread post by **Myself** » Tue 20/05/2008 07:22

Myself wrote:
Michael wrote:Be colder than 13 tonight if it stays clear like it is now.
The relative humidity is pretty high though (about 90%), that could hold things up for a while.

Overnight min of 13C.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 20/05/2008 10:42

Changed my mind, models have lifted the snow level quiet abit, more 400-500m atm

Lawrence · Unread post by **Lawrence** » Tue 20/05/2008 10:50

03Stormchaser wrote:Changed my mind, models have lifted the snow level quiet abit, more 400-500m atm

Yep ,noticed that too.Some models are starting to show a low forming,

but at this stage it might be too far south to cause any low level event.I'm just wondering how much further the models might degrade.

Looking good for some action in the North Island still ,don't you think?

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Tue 20/05/2008 10:53

That high pressure system isn't budging quickly, is it?

http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... rsatellite

It seems that the low to the west is weakening. The low to the east seems to be heading back this way, i'd like to see it combine with both the west and southwest one and see what happens..

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Tue 20/05/2008 11:31

Mostly blue sky here and quite mild.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Tue 20/05/2008 14:40

MS have lowered their snowline predictions a little, but how far south is "south"? The Catlins? A bit too vague.

Inny Binny · Unread post by **Inny Binny** » Tue 20/05/2008 14:55

A possibility of heavy rain now, but the snow possibility to whatever levels has lowered...these models keep changing a lot.

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Tue 20/05/2008 15:28

Inny Binny wrote:A possibility of heavy rain now, but the snow possibility to whatever levels has lowered...these models keep changing a lot.

Agree, temps of 11 degrees for chch for the next six days or so, so im guessing even inland it wont be cold enough.
Heck its colder in England for the cricket tests.

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 20/05/2008 15:42

The upper atmosphere certainly looks to cool off significantly from Friday to next Monday (at least) according to the current GFS.

The gusty NE has been cool here today, with some rain this morning, and yesterday. 8mm here for the last 2 days.

gopolks · Unread post by **gopolks** » Tue 20/05/2008 16:52

Its going to be a wet weekend with plenty of snizzle.

Myself · Unread post by **Myself** » Tue 20/05/2008 17:12

Andrew Massie wrote:That high pressure system isn't budging quickly, is it?

http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... rsatellite

It seems that the low to the west is weakening. The low to the east seems to be heading back this way, i'd like to see it combine with both the west and southwest one and see what happens..

The low to the west has been weakening for the last 2 days roughly, it's no longer in the lee of an upper trough and is really dying a death.
Likewise the low to the east. It's big and it's old but I think it's decaying.

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