Cold Snap For late May

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Lawrence
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Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Lawrence »

Looking at the models it looks very likly that a large cold pool will be making landfall on Thursday 22nd. :)
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Gary Roberts »

The 22nd is still a mighty long way off, in weatherology terms.
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Lawrence »

Yeah,I know.It might flatten out a bit and compleatly miss us. :roll: It's got some good potantial to spawn a couple of lows to pass the eastern fringes of the south during its transit if it keeps close to the prediction matrix.Mind you,like you said it's still a fair way out yet.Think it will mainly depend on the applitude of the Jet Stream.It's going to be interesting how the cut off low that is effecting South East Australia at the moment will effect the whole out look :-k
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Brassnz »

Looks like I'm heading down to my old stamping ground Christchurch next Friday - hoping the cold snap eventuates!
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Looking interesting at the moment for next WE, from Thurday :)
Wait and see what happens :D

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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by ricky »

This is starting to look potentially stormy and wet in the North now as well..
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by David »

ricky wrote:This is starting to look potentially stormy and wet in the North now as well..
Looking at the models this morning, looks like it could turn into a full-blown storm! Still 5-6 days out so its hard to have any confidence in severe weather at this stage...at the moment Friday next week looks to have a good blow. Possibly some soaking rain too :)
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

thats going on GFS models (Cold SE airstream over the SI, deepening low to cross the NI)
but the ECMWF model wants to bring the system through earlier and faster, leaving a cold SE airstream over NZ earlier

we will have to wait and see!
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Inny Binny »

Nuh-uh. :P

This is looking great at the moment - it is definitely ages out yet though.

Waiting for the latest GFS (GIF creation error at the moment :evil: ) and the Metservice severe weather outlook.
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Lawrence »

Latest models look fairly consistent at the moment for this event. SST are slightly above normal though, and in the warm region. 8-[ The 540 line seems too be moving way too high in some models compared to earlier ones, suggesting the possibility of a cut off, :-k what ever the case it looks very good for some action to the far North of the North Island, remember that your haven’t had many good displays this season from events coming across from the north west, so my thinking is that this system might bowl something up for you from the south west. Still a fair way out but I think that this might be a fairly substantial event for North and South. I can't convince myself that it's a fizzer yet. Not sure about snow to low levels yet, but what ever happens I think the skiers among us will be very happy when this system comes through.
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Hmmm sounds very interesting people. Noticed crt are forecasting snow to 400-300m on the hills thats not a bad level at all.
I think sugar loaf on port hills is like 430m above sea level so be definite dusting snow up there if eventuates. :D
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Storm Struck »

It will be interesting to see how it pans out closer to the time, at this stage it looks like a substantial amount of snow may fall in inland Canterbury with a cold S-SE flow.
What gets me though is overnight Friday and into Saturday morning when the air is much colder and the wind swings more moist Easterly, could that bring a brief convective snowfall to sea level :-k .
Its a hard one to pick as it could be much colder or warmer as we get closer to this event, looks also like an event for central Otago.
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Inny Binny »

And amidst all this rubbish BlueSkies is still forecasting snow to 400m. :roll:

I completely agree Karshvardidgah.
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Razor »

I see the Metservice has pinned their flag to the post on this one now
"On Friday, a cold southerly flow should develop over the south of the South Island with a chance of snow showers in parts of Otago and Southland, but heavy falls to low levels appear unlikely at this stage. "
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Lawrence »

Razor wrote: I see the Metservice has pinned their flag to the post on this one now
"On Friday, a cold southerly flow should develop over the south of the South Island with a chance of snow showers in parts of Otago and Southland, but heavy falls to low levels appear unlikely at this stage. "
Just out of interest,does any one know whats the earliest Dunedin has had some snow and what was the wind direction at the time ? :?:
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Myself »

Karshvardidgâh wrote:
Razor wrote: I see the Metservice has pinned their flag to the post on this one now
"On Friday, a cold southerly flow should develop over the south of the South Island with a chance of snow showers in parts of Otago and Southland, but heavy falls to low levels appear unlikely at this stage. "
Just out of interest,does any one know whats the earliest Dunedin has had some snow and what was the wind direction at the time ? :?:
Dunedin reported snow showers in that cold snap 3 (?) weeks ago. I guess that would not be the earliest though.
I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to be March in some dark, distant historic time.
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by TonyT »

I have cleaned up this thread by removing posts which were off topic. Please stay on topic.
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by TonyT »

Razor wrote:I see the Metservice has pinned their flag to the post on this one now
"On Friday, a cold southerly flow should develop over the south of the South Island with a chance of snow showers in parts of Otago and Southland, but heavy falls to low levels appear unlikely at this stage. "
Which is pretty much what Blue Skies has been saying as well.
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by gopolks »

I saw on TVNZ's weather, they are predicting light rain for chch on thursday and friday, I guess its too far out to know, but have the models changed a lot in the past 24 hours?
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Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by TonyT »

gopolks wrote:I saw on TVNZ's weather, they are predicting light rain for chch on thursday and friday, I guess its too far out to know, but have the models changed a lot in the past 24 hours?
The models have less and more broken rain, but similar temperatures to what they were showing yesterday.
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Re: Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Michael »

It be mainly the usual Bombays hill north event apart from cold in the south.
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Re: Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Lawrence »

CAPE values looking better and better for the North Island at the end of this week. :D lets hope that it stays on target, :-k some hope I know, :roll: but I would like to see some good action stuff out of this system as the cold air moves in 8-[. Just keep your camera's on Charge.Fingers crossed. ;)
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Re: Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Lawrence »

Michael wrote:It be mainly the usual Bombays hill north event apart from cold in the south.
Yeah. Could get some good intense rates of fall by the looks for Waikato at the moment 30-35mm.Be more accurate closer to the time. 8-[
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Re: Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Inny Binny »

Models have changed up a bit. THK's in the 520's?
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Re: Cold Snap For late May

Unread post by Lawrence »

Inny Binny wrote:Models have changed up a bit. THK's in the 520's?
Make's me go all goosebumpy looking at that,Sunday looks fairly cold too.burrrrrrrrr!!! :o
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