Cold Snap For late May
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- Lawrence
- Posts: 959
- Joined: Mon 25/06/2007 09:11
- Location: Kirwee,Selwyn,Canterbury,157m ASL
- Has thanked: 169 times
- Been thanked: 68 times
Cold Snap For late May
Looking at the models it looks very likly that a large cold pool will be making landfall on Thursday 22nd.
-
- Posts: 2363
- Joined: Sun 18/01/2004 18:59
- Location: Omarama
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Lawrence
- Posts: 959
- Joined: Mon 25/06/2007 09:11
- Location: Kirwee,Selwyn,Canterbury,157m ASL
- Has thanked: 169 times
- Been thanked: 68 times
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
Yeah,I know.It might flatten out a bit and compleatly miss us. It's got some good potantial to spawn a couple of lows to pass the eastern fringes of the south during its transit if it keeps close to the prediction matrix.Mind you,like you said it's still a fair way out yet.Think it will mainly depend on the applitude of the Jet Stream.It's going to be interesting how the cut off low that is effecting South East Australia at the moment will effect the whole out look
-
- Posts: 262
- Joined: Thu 14/10/2004 12:42
- Location: Laingholm, Auckland
- Has thanked: 51 times
- Been thanked: 8 times
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
Looks like I'm heading down to my old stamping ground Christchurch next Friday - hoping the cold snap eventuates!
-
- Posts: 18523
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1780 times
- Been thanked: 1429 times
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
Looking interesting at the moment for next WE, from Thurday
Wait and see what happens
JohnGaul
NZTS
Wait and see what happens
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
-
- Posts: 1054
- Joined: Sun 28/09/2003 21:27
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 489 times
- Been thanked: 40 times
- Contact:
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
This is starting to look potentially stormy and wet in the North now as well..
- David
- Posts: 7589
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 422 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
Looking at the models this morning, looks like it could turn into a full-blown storm! Still 5-6 days out so its hard to have any confidence in severe weather at this stage...at the moment Friday next week looks to have a good blow. Possibly some soaking rain tooricky wrote:This is starting to look potentially stormy and wet in the North now as well..
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
thats going on GFS models (Cold SE airstream over the SI, deepening low to cross the NI)
but the ECMWF model wants to bring the system through earlier and faster, leaving a cold SE airstream over NZ earlier
we will have to wait and see!
but the ECMWF model wants to bring the system through earlier and faster, leaving a cold SE airstream over NZ earlier
we will have to wait and see!
-
- Posts: 553
- Joined: Sat 01/09/2007 12:15
- Location: Prebbleton
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
Nuh-uh.
This is looking great at the moment - it is definitely ages out yet though.
Waiting for the latest GFS (GIF creation error at the moment ) and the Metservice severe weather outlook.
This is looking great at the moment - it is definitely ages out yet though.
Waiting for the latest GFS (GIF creation error at the moment ) and the Metservice severe weather outlook.
- Lawrence
- Posts: 959
- Joined: Mon 25/06/2007 09:11
- Location: Kirwee,Selwyn,Canterbury,157m ASL
- Has thanked: 169 times
- Been thanked: 68 times
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
Latest models look fairly consistent at the moment for this event. SST are slightly above normal though, and in the warm region. The 540 line seems too be moving way too high in some models compared to earlier ones, suggesting the possibility of a cut off, what ever the case it looks very good for some action to the far North of the North Island, remember that your haven’t had many good displays this season from events coming across from the north west, so my thinking is that this system might bowl something up for you from the south west. Still a fair way out but I think that this might be a fairly substantial event for North and South. I can't convince myself that it's a fizzer yet. Not sure about snow to low levels yet, but what ever happens I think the skiers among us will be very happy when this system comes through.
-
- Posts: 2717
- Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
- Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
- Has thanked: 359 times
- Been thanked: 621 times
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
Hmmm sounds very interesting people. Noticed crt are forecasting snow to 400-300m on the hills thats not a bad level at all.
I think sugar loaf on port hills is like 430m above sea level so be definite dusting snow up there if eventuates.
I think sugar loaf on port hills is like 430m above sea level so be definite dusting snow up there if eventuates.
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
Stormchasers.co.nz
- Storm Struck
- Posts: 4879
- Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
- Location: Belfast Christchurch
- Has thanked: 23 times
- Been thanked: 395 times
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
It will be interesting to see how it pans out closer to the time, at this stage it looks like a substantial amount of snow may fall in inland Canterbury with a cold S-SE flow.
What gets me though is overnight Friday and into Saturday morning when the air is much colder and the wind swings more moist Easterly, could that bring a brief convective snowfall to sea level .
Its a hard one to pick as it could be much colder or warmer as we get closer to this event, looks also like an event for central Otago.
Cheers
Jason.
What gets me though is overnight Friday and into Saturday morning when the air is much colder and the wind swings more moist Easterly, could that bring a brief convective snowfall to sea level .
Its a hard one to pick as it could be much colder or warmer as we get closer to this event, looks also like an event for central Otago.
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
-
- Posts: 553
- Joined: Sat 01/09/2007 12:15
- Location: Prebbleton
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
And amidst all this rubbish BlueSkies is still forecasting snow to 400m.
I completely agree Karshvardidgah.
I completely agree Karshvardidgah.
-
- Moderator
- Posts: 5155
- Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
- Location: Halswell, Christchurch
- Has thanked: 731 times
- Been thanked: 938 times
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
I see the Metservice has pinned their flag to the post on this one now
"On Friday, a cold southerly flow should develop over the south of the South Island with a chance of snow showers in parts of Otago and Southland, but heavy falls to low levels appear unlikely at this stage. "
"On Friday, a cold southerly flow should develop over the south of the South Island with a chance of snow showers in parts of Otago and Southland, but heavy falls to low levels appear unlikely at this stage. "
Christchurch Rocks
- Lawrence
- Posts: 959
- Joined: Mon 25/06/2007 09:11
- Location: Kirwee,Selwyn,Canterbury,157m ASL
- Has thanked: 169 times
- Been thanked: 68 times
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
Just out of interest,does any one know whats the earliest Dunedin has had some snow and what was the wind direction at the time ?Razor wrote: I see the Metservice has pinned their flag to the post on this one now
"On Friday, a cold southerly flow should develop over the south of the South Island with a chance of snow showers in parts of Otago and Southland, but heavy falls to low levels appear unlikely at this stage. "
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
Dunedin reported snow showers in that cold snap 3 (?) weeks ago. I guess that would not be the earliest though.Karshvardidgâh wrote:Just out of interest,does any one know whats the earliest Dunedin has had some snow and what was the wind direction at the time ?Razor wrote: I see the Metservice has pinned their flag to the post on this one now
"On Friday, a cold southerly flow should develop over the south of the South Island with a chance of snow showers in parts of Otago and Southland, but heavy falls to low levels appear unlikely at this stage. "
I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to be March in some dark, distant historic time.
- TonyT
- Moderator
- Posts: 2885
- Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
- Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 354 times
- Been thanked: 1157 times
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
I have cleaned up this thread by removing posts which were off topic. Please stay on topic.
- TonyT
- Moderator
- Posts: 2885
- Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
- Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 354 times
- Been thanked: 1157 times
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
Which is pretty much what Blue Skies has been saying as well.Razor wrote:I see the Metservice has pinned their flag to the post on this one now
"On Friday, a cold southerly flow should develop over the south of the South Island with a chance of snow showers in parts of Otago and Southland, but heavy falls to low levels appear unlikely at this stage. "
-
- Posts: 706
- Joined: Thu 22/03/2007 16:48
- Location: Canterbury
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
I saw on TVNZ's weather, they are predicting light rain for chch on thursday and friday, I guess its too far out to know, but have the models changed a lot in the past 24 hours?
- TonyT
- Moderator
- Posts: 2885
- Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
- Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
- Has thanked: 354 times
- Been thanked: 1157 times
Re: Serious Cold Snap For late May
The models have less and more broken rain, but similar temperatures to what they were showing yesterday.gopolks wrote:I saw on TVNZ's weather, they are predicting light rain for chch on thursday and friday, I guess its too far out to know, but have the models changed a lot in the past 24 hours?
- Michael
- Posts: 7210
- Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
- Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 1 time
- Contact:
Re: Cold Snap For late May
It be mainly the usual Bombays hill north event apart from cold in the south.
- Lawrence
- Posts: 959
- Joined: Mon 25/06/2007 09:11
- Location: Kirwee,Selwyn,Canterbury,157m ASL
- Has thanked: 169 times
- Been thanked: 68 times
Re: Cold Snap For late May
CAPE values looking better and better for the North Island at the end of this week. lets hope that it stays on target, some hope I know, but I would like to see some good action stuff out of this system as the cold air moves in . Just keep your camera's on Charge.Fingers crossed.
- Lawrence
- Posts: 959
- Joined: Mon 25/06/2007 09:11
- Location: Kirwee,Selwyn,Canterbury,157m ASL
- Has thanked: 169 times
- Been thanked: 68 times
Re: Cold Snap For late May
Yeah. Could get some good intense rates of fall by the looks for Waikato at the moment 30-35mm.Be more accurate closer to the time.Michael wrote:It be mainly the usual Bombays hill north event apart from cold in the south.
-
- Posts: 553
- Joined: Sat 01/09/2007 12:15
- Location: Prebbleton
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Cold Snap For late May
Models have changed up a bit. THK's in the 520's?
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
- Lawrence
- Posts: 959
- Joined: Mon 25/06/2007 09:11
- Location: Kirwee,Selwyn,Canterbury,157m ASL
- Has thanked: 169 times
- Been thanked: 68 times
Re: Cold Snap For late May
Make's me go all goosebumpy looking at that,Sunday looks fairly cold too.burrrrrrrrr!!!Inny Binny wrote:Models have changed up a bit. THK's in the 520's?