NZ Weather Forum

bring it on! 25+ temps in Auckland triple of now.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/10/st ... d=10512885

Dunedin + 2 degrees and more or less the same precipitation equals the perfect climate for a human.

"Dunedin + 2 degrees and more or less the same precipitation equals the perfect climate for a human."

But sadly offset by the poor housing.

How many of us will be around in 2090?

I know its a big call but i actually think parts of the waikato are still in some form of drought . If you have driven into huntly from the northern side in the last few days all the hills have lost their green colour and are begining to look horrible again. The grass is green around the place but it isnt very long grass. I dug up some ground today in a paddok on dads farm and its bone dry. No moisture in the soil at all.
Can anyone tell me how far behind year to date parts of the waikato are for rainfall?

Based entirely on whats been happening in the Northern Hemisphere this spring I suspect we are in for a cooler and wetter spring in NZ, lasting up until Xmas.

As for long term warming, yes it would be nice if it happened. Warmer is definitely better.

"Based entirely on whats been happening in the Northern Hemisphere this spring I suspect we are in for a cooler and wetter spring in NZ, lasting up until Xmas."

What's it based on specifically? The NH is pretty big and has been quite variable this spring. eg, snow in London in April, then 27C in London in May.

Well, I could possibly be around in 2090 at the ripe age of.. 99. But I highly doubt that because I'm sure my liver would have gone long before that.. unless its replaced..

Anyway, Think this summer had over 5 or 6 days over 30 according to Jeff's. Wonder what their estimate is for the future?

Ryan Thomas wrote:Well, I could possibly be around in 2090 at the ripe age of.. 99. But I highly doubt that because I'm sure my liver would have gone long before that.. unless its replaced..

Anyway, Think this summer had over 5 or 6 days over 30 according to Jeff's. Wonder what their estimate is for the future?

Haha yes well sounds like we have a similar issue there with the liver... Ill kill mine with my lifestyle well before im due to kick the bucket.. but what else are students good for drinking, drinking more drinking and oh drinking.

I think Hamilton was around 5 days 30 and over as well. Itl be interesting to see how this changes in my lifetime

More moisture, higher temperatures...less snow, more rain. Good for the lakes!

Myself wrote:"Based entirely on whats been happening in the Northern Hemisphere this spring I suspect we are in for a cooler and wetter spring in NZ, lasting up until Xmas."

What's it based on specifically?

Its Auckland weather hes referring to,the second 1/2 of the year when its totally unreliable to do any outdoor activity unless your a fish or a duck.

More fine days and ...
....more fine days

JohnGaul
NZTS

Yes, but what's the Northern Hemisphere basis for such a conclusion?

The future looks a little rosier for the lakes Michael, courtesy of GCC.

Temperatures and precipitation are predicted to rise. Less snow, more rain.

We have seen less snow falling in recent years and fewer days of really cold weather.

It only takes a little more warm(ish) rain to wash away any residual snow in the Main Divide and much of the run-off ends up in the lakes, eventually.

Bad for ski-bunnies, good for everybody else, for the pov of electricity and agriculture.

Gary Roberts wrote:The future looks a little rosier for the lakes Michael, courtesy of GCC.

Temperatures and precipitation are predicted to rise. Less snow, more rain.

We have seen less snow falling in recent years and fewer days of really cold weather.

It only takes a little more warm(ish) rain to wash away any residual snow in the Main Divide and much of the run-off ends up in the lakes, eventually.

Bad for ski-bunnies, good for everybody else, for the pov of electricity and agriculture.

This is actually incredibly bad for the Waitaki hydroscheme, please don't spread such misinformation, especially when your argument basis is wrong to begin with.

RWood wrote:Wait a few days for the monthly summary. The totals are pretty low, may get a minor topup this weekend. A lot of anticyclonic NE/E/SE - the last of which gave W'gton a miserable spell after a lengthy benign one. N Plymouth has clocked up a lot of sunshine MTD, not far from a record.

Why on Earth did we concentrate our hydro resources in the sunny Mackenzie? They should have been located in the main centres, where all the rain is!

Ah well, GCC will bring a lot of rainfall to the the Southern Alps: instead of patchy, ever-decreasing snow and ice, we'll have lots of lovely, reliable rain feeding the lakes instead!

southernthrash wrote:

Gary Roberts wrote:The future looks a little rosier for the lakes Michael, courtesy of GCC.

Temperatures and precipitation are predicted to rise. Less snow, more rain.

We have seen less snow falling in recent years and fewer days of really cold weather.

It only takes a little more warm(ish) rain to wash away any residual snow in the Main Divide and much of the run-off ends up in the lakes, eventually.

Bad for ski-bunnies, good for everybody else, for the pov of electricity and agriculture.

This is actually incredibly bad for the Waitaki hydroscheme, please don't spread such misinformation, especially when your argument basis is wrong to begin with.

Um, why? I would have thought increased precipitation on the main divide would be good for the Waitaki hydroscheme?

The Waitaki scheme relies on the long term storage and slow release of water through spring and summer through glaciers and snow and ice fields, that is fundamental to the schemes operation, adn the reason it is built where, and configured as, it is. If that precipitation falls as snow, then it's great, but if, as Gary postulates it comes as rain, then that is not so great at all.

Enough rain falls in the mackenzie over winter, and combined with low level snowfall and melt in the catchment headwaters, this is what tends to prevent us facing blackouts.

If it wasn't for the slow release of water through spring and summer, right up until the following winter really, from permanent snow and ice, then there would be very little, if any, generation capacity through the dry summer. The same applies to the Clutha scheme, and to a smaller extent, the Waikato.

southernthrash wrote:The Waitaki scheme relies on the long term storage and slow release of water through spring and summer through glaciers and snow and ice fields, that is fundamental to the schemes operation, adn the reason it is built where, and configured as, it is. If that precipitation falls as snow, then it's great, but if, as Gary postulates it comes as rain, then that is not so great at all.

Enough rain falls in the mackenzie over winter, and combined with low level snowfall and melt in the catchment headwaters, this is what tends to prevent us facing blackouts.

If it wasn't for the slow release of water through spring and summer, right up until the following winter really, from permanent snow and ice, then there would be very little, if any, generation capacity through the dry summer. The same applies to the Clutha scheme, and to a smaller extent, the Waikato.

Ok, so its not the possibility of increased precipitation which will be a problem, but a potential change in the balance of rain and snow over the course of a year?

Yea pretty much, if increased precipitation comes as snow during the accumulation season (some say this is already happening) then that is great. But if more rain falls in the winter (instead of snow), or net snowfall decreases, then that is bad.

Would make for some interesting modelling investigations actually, ie the effects of increased snowfall above say 2500 metre, and increased rainfall below that level, to see what the net effects would be.

If it wasn't for the slow release of water through spring and summer, right up until the following winter really, from permanent snow and ice, then there would be very little, if any, generation capacity through the dry summer.

Usually there is heavy rainfall in the Alps during summer but not so much in this La lina period.

spwill wrote:

If it wasn't for the slow release of water through spring and summer, right up until the following winter really, from permanent snow and ice, then there would be very little, if any, generation capacity through the dry summer.

Usually there is heavy rainfall in the Alps during summer but not so much in this La lina period.

Tends to be inconsistent and not across the whole catchment, winter rain is regarded as being more reliable. Also drier soil and other factors in the summer mean that summer rain tends to get caught up in groundwater for considerably longer periods of time than winter rain.

Damn. The rain has all-but stopped. Let's hope it starts up again and keeps going. With so little snowfall in the divide these past few years and a minimal snowbase, snowmelt has constituted a very small of percentage lake inflows. We've been dependent upon direct rainfall and there hasn't been enough of that either, hence the dangerously low lake levels.

Hydro people are hoping that GCC really does lead to warmer temperatures and therefore more rain. That scenario makes ski-bunnies weep, naturally, but people who actually matter (ie everybody else) are planning for the future around the expectation of increased temps and rainfall. That'll be great for the lakes!

Usually there is heavy rainfall in the Alps during summer but not so much in this La lina period.spwill

That is the nuts and bolts of it, La Nina, lower rainfall over the Alps.

There is quite a high probability La Nina will be gone by spring. It would be an exceptionally freak occurrance to have another dry spring/summer over the alps.

NZstorm wrote:
There is quite a high probability La Nina will be gone by spring.

I hope so. I'm not really a La Nina fan

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZstorm wrote:It would be an exceptionally freak occurrance to have another dry spring/summer over the alps.

Down this way, for the last few years, we've experienced what basically amounts to an almost unbroken string of them...