Polar Outbreak starting 07/06/2008

[gllitz]

Have decided to start another thread on this...models have been pretty consistent for the past few runs and are showing a polar blast affecting practically the whole of the country starting this Saturday (07/06/2008) and moving right into early/mid next week...just wondering how cold it will get (initial numbers show snow to VERY low levels in many areas) and how this will impact electricity demand as well....

Anyway, over to the various pundits and experts out there.......!

[Thunder]

Oh joy, over to other experts for their opinions now

[Gary Roberts]

Pffft!

"Polar outbreak".

Not a chance.

I've just ordered a new lounger, sun umbrella and 40-gallon drum of sunblock.

[spwill]

Hopefully it's cold air we get and not all hot air.

Last EC run looks very SouthWesterly.

[Vertigo]

ill be watching this one. bring on some severe cold fronts!

[Razor]

Looks like nothing more than a Southland and coastal Otago event to me at this stage, just the standard garden variety winter flick or two for Canterbury. Gary will probably be posting from sunny McKenzie Basin most of the weekend

Still way too early in the season for me to get too excited, August is usually the action month

[gllitz]

I tend to agree with Razor now, based on what I am seeing in the attached models (but I don't think Gary will be basking in the sun....perhaps basking in the sun reflecting off the snow around him sometime on Sunday )

Please see attached for CHCH/Dunedin/Omarama (for Gary...)/Invercargill...Looks like Invercargill/Southland/Dunedin are gonna get hammered at this stage...note the wind speeds!
Canty *might* see some frozen precip, but not much....so very typical

...and note what seems to be a 1-2 punch with it as well..initially on SAT/SUN followed by clearing on SUN and then more again come MON/TUES...lots of fun for everyone!

[Lawrence]

Yeah!A fair way out yet, but The models suggest a large cold up welling even better than the last one we had heading our way towards the weekend as a deep Antarctic low passes quite close to the south, especially on Saturday with a cold front moving across the South Island at a good rate of knots causing the brisk southerly flow to become cold enough to bring snow to low levels in Southland, Otago and Canterbury about Saturday night Sunday Morning. Possibly looking in with a chance of some good falls of snow for the ski fields and down to around 200 meters due to the amount of moisture. Also looking very stormy in the north island too with some decent snow fall at higher levels at this point. CAPE is looking good for the far north, so might get some good action with this system. One to keep our eyes on for some weekend action I think.

[Janos]

That will do us snow to Otago even better coastal..no complaints there.

[jamie]

Looky looky at this http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/static/nz/132/snow

[Inny Binny]

Looks to be a fair chance of relatively low-level snow from Saturday right until Monday (in two seperate fronts?)

391772_metgram.gif

[gllitz]

Looks to be a fair chance of relatively low-level snow from Saturday right until Monday (in two seperate fronts?)

391772_metgram.gif

Uhm...is that not what I JUST said in my post above???

[Gary Roberts]

Still a long ways off but at least it's looking interesting. I predict tons of snow for absolutely everywhere, except the skifields and the Mackenzie Basin which alone shall bask in warm sunshine.

[Inny Binny]

Uhm...is that not what I JUST said in my post above???

I didn't even see that.

[Andrew Massie]

Still a long ways off but at least it's looking interesting. I predict tons of snow for absolutely everywhere, except the skifields and the Mackenzie Basin which alone shall bask in warm sunshine.

Brilliant!

[southernthrash]

The skifield that matters already has tons of snow, looking good for more through to Tuesday, even the metservice are falling in line with the models now (somewhat). Benmore peak will probably recieve the least snow of any major mountain anywhere.

[Gary Roberts]

Still a long ways off but at least it's looking interesting. I predict tons of snow for absolutely everywhere, except the skifields and the Mackenzie Basin which alone shall bask in warm sunshine.

Brilliant!

The maps on the website j--me--h linked to make it look as if the Mackenzie and adjacent parts of the Main Divide may get a very small amount of snow, while further north Saint Arnaud may finally get some too, which will frighten the locals, since most of them won't have been alive long enough to know what snow is.

But the poor Queenstown/Wanaka area will miss out entirely, yet again. Assuming that map isn't completely b0rk3d, or anything.

[gllitz]

But the poor Queenstown/Wanaka area will miss out entirely, yet again. Assuming that map isn't completely b0rk3d, or anything.

Au contraire, mon frere...please see attached ...most recent run for the Q'town area...I reckon they will get a bit of snow down to the streets there...
I have a friend of mine taking her daughter down there this weekend for CureKids...SO THERE BETTER BE SNOW FOR THE KIDS!!!!!!! (I honestly think there will be, just quietly...)

Looking more like the SAT/SUN event will be the main event and the Monday/Tuesday a non-event....bummer this isn't happening during the week!

[Lawrence]

Looking more like the SAT/SUN event will be the main event and the Monday/Tuesday a non-event....bummer this isn't happening during the week!

Very much agree there gllitz,I think the most important factor of the models is how a low develops of the east of the south and also the west, also there is not much heating leading up to the event. Latest models are positioning it more to the north of Canterbury now. Monday looks extremely cold with some good surge off the south coast, so I think we will be seeing some large waves. The cold Jet steam is sucking up that cold air right off Antarctica, so the wind chill, if the models stay like this will be very raw indeed and have more potential to flow further north.

[southernthrash]

This from snow-forecast.com, who have an ok record with south island snow events (they were pretty much spot on with canterbury 06)


Gary, I believe Aucklanders prefer to fall on Wanaka now days, and I know of more than a few who have bought up your way

[Myself]

Saint Arnaud may finally get some too, which will frighten the locals, since most of them won't have been alive long enough to know what snow is.

Saint Arnaud had a decent snowfall last March.

[Lawrence]

Heres the latest GFS from Germany

[gllitz]

Heres the latest GFS from Germany

Sorry, but my German is a bit....poor.........

[tgsnoopy]

Oh boy, my arrival back from Sydney on Tuesday 1oth looks like it will be a bit cooler than I anticipated.

Hope this pans out. It'd be great if the skifields all get to open early with lots of facilities running.

I just hope Ruapehu behaves itself!

[gopolks]

Well let the guessing game begin!

Sleety rain for chch on sunday.