Lousy February

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 17/02/2004 07:20

Lousy February this year lots of wind and rain like this morning (again)

Well we can look forward to winter now just around the corner

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Tue 17/02/2004 10:17

Michael wrote:Lousy February this year lots of wind and rain like this morning (again)

Well we can look forward to winter now just around the corner

I bet you're just the life of every party!

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Tue 17/02/2004 12:30

Wow! Heavy rain here in Chch, and getting heavier!! Wounder how long it will last? Come back to edit this post , the heavy rain didn't last long, still raining though but not as heavy as before.

Looks like the Marlborough sounds / Picton area is the place to be with thunderstorms there today. $\:D/$

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 17/02/2004 18:23

Michael wrote:
Well we can look forward to winter now just around the corner

Can't wait

Got a big load of firewood stacked plus we chopped down some trees for extra firewood

JohnGaul
NZTS

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 17/02/2004 20:50

John, it looks like you might be using that firewood down there soon. Our yo yo Weather looks like getting worse before it gets better.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 17/02/2004 23:02

Well we can look forward to winter now just around the corner

Just around the corner? - the far south looks like it'll be in for a wintry weekend, with a strong west/southwest flow. The UNISYS model shows blue for the lower part of the island. With this flow the east (including Canterbury) should escape the cold and wet, but we should watch out for very gusty winds on Saturday.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Wed 18/02/2004 09:30

I dont like the look of the winds for Saturday, not nice at all. Someone is going to get hurt I'm afraid.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 18/02/2004 22:10

I dont like the look of the winds for Saturday, not nice at all. Someone is going to get hurt I'm afraid.

Should we be worried in Chch?8-[ Severe Weather Outlooks generally include all of an area in their warnings, but severe northwesterly gales tend to be more common in inland Canterbury than in Chch. Not that they're unknown in the city, but usually when there are severe and damaging gusts inland (especially near the entrances to the big river gorges), Chch winds are just strong, with maybe some gusts just reaching gale-force.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 18/02/2004 22:57

Not really You will get summer there we wont especially with SW

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 18/02/2004 22:57

There have been a lot of instances where strong NW have been forecasted for Canterbury but they have blown overhead over Christchurch rather than on the surface

JohnGaul
NZTS

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 18/02/2004 23:21

There have been a lot of instances where strong NW have been forecasted for Canterbury but they have blown overhead over Christchurch rather than on the surface

"The severe northwesterly gales have now eased in Canterbury..." - I've heard that on the news/weather reports at least once in recent months, when there have been no strong winds, let alone gales in Chch.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Thu 19/02/2004 08:09

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:There have been a lot of instances where strong NW have been forecasted for Canterbury but they have blown overhead over Christchurch rather than on the surface

JohnGaul
NZTS

I'd go further than that and say that almost all NW gales (or worse) affect only one part of Canterbury or another, but rarely all parts.

The problem from a forecasting perspective is to identify which parts, which seems to me to be all but near impossible, except perhaps just a few hours before they happen.

Certainly a few days out, as we are now, I look at the maps and shudder at the strength of the airflow forecast for Saturday, and the stongest part of the flow is indicated from Otago to Hawkes Bay! Some places will get severe gales for sure, but which places is impossible to say. Its often the areas under the centre of the upper level jet, but not always, and we have had NW gales in the past where the gales affected places which were to the side of the jet, and not even in the usual topographically enhanced places (eg the river valleys).

It would be a wise precaution to tie down anything likely to blow about and have alternatives to travel etc for Saturday. The odds are you wont get the gales, but someone somewhere will.

To give you some idea, for Chch, the model is predicting 37 knots 1000hpa (surface) wind for 4pm Saturday, 68 knots at 850hpa and 117 knots at 500hpa. The region with 500hpa winds above 100 knots extends from North Otago to Cook Strait, and the peak winds of around 120 knots seem set to pass over Mid Canterbury.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 19/02/2004 09:45

Do you find in Canterbury you are most likely to pick up a North Westerly in the afternoon hours ?
Lots of Thunderstorm action just SW of NZ this morning. Invercargil should get one.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 19/02/2004 10:56

We are finally having a day with the wind more North of West and the sun is shining in a blue sky with less wind

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Thu 19/02/2004 12:27

Yes spwill, thunderstorms down south today, Fiordland getting the good stuff!!

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Thu 19/02/2004 14:42

Nothing in Invercargill yet. Dense Ns Cbgen but not more than intermittent light rain at noon. There were spherix this morning but they decayed by 1100 . Now gusty NW but nothing out of the ordinary.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 19/02/2004 15:26

Invercargill must have just missed out on those Storms this morning but may still get one from the cold showery weather to the southwest. Active Front with Thunderstorms is now over Westland and moving north. Hopefully it will weaken before it reachs the lower Nort Island.

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Thu 19/02/2004 16:17

Tome is 1615 and we have just had a some heavy showers and a freshening SW, No thunder or hail at this stage.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 19/02/2004 18:13

Invercargill should get a very strong squally Southwest Change by mid evening with a few heavy showers, hail very likely.

The front crossing the South Island looks quite virgorous but should weaken over the lower NI.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 20/02/2004 08:33

Must've been some heavy rain overnight in Chch while I was alseep, well at least in Hillmorton (9mm in an hour, 20mm in total). I woke up at one stage and noticed it was raining lightly. Fine and cool now. BTW some pretty strong (though maybe not quite gale) northwesterly gusts early yesterday afternoon. Forestaste of Saturday?

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 20/02/2004 08:49

Just more gales More Rain Lots of below average temps on and on it goes....

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