North Island unsettled 15-18 June

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David
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North Island unsettled 15-18 June

Unread post by David »

A wet looking system coming, eastern and northern Northland should get the most rain and wind.
Forecast tomorrow "rain with heavy falls" for Auckland.
Marine warnings are for 50knots in the Hauraki Gulf tomorrow morning.

Drizzle here for the last hour nearly...1mm in the last 2 days from drizzle showers.
Should see decent rain totals in Auckland tomorrow I'm hoping?
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Re: North Island unsettled 15-18 June

Unread post by Myself »

Is this thing going to hang around do you think? What's the general idea for next weekend at the moment?
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Re: North Island unsettled 15-18 June

Unread post by spwill »

Hopefully the heavy rain will get into the Auckland City area, has been dry of late . Auckland dewpoints are currently around 17C, high for June.
What's the general idea for next weekend at the moment?
Looks like an unsettled westerly pattern moving in. The start of our winter ?.
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Re: North Island unsettled 15-18 June

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks like the most active part of this system is going to pass away to our east. The GFS has been advertising CAPE of 800 over Northland for Monday/Tuesday but within a relatively warm upper air environment, so I don't expect to see much in the way of thundery action happen, particularly given the time of year. This set up would be fruitful in the warmer months when the land gets a chance to heat up.
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Re: North Island unsettled 15-18 June

Unread post by David »

Set in to moderate rain in the morning, but eased off after 3pm to just occasional light rain/moderate showers mixed in. I see Mangawhai Heads is getting soaked by heavy rain this evening, maybe some of that will make it down here later.
As for the wind forecast, :lol: It was hardly windy at all the whole day!
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Re: North Island unsettled 15-18 June

Unread post by spwill »

Some heavy local showers across the Auckland area this Evening.
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Re: North Island unsettled 15-18 June

Unread post by Lawrence »

spwill wrote:Looks like an unsettled westerly pattern moving in. The start of our winter ?.
Looking quite scary at the moment,bit far out yet though so it might calm down a bit in a few runs but I think you might be right with the words "The start of our winter" :-k
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Re: North Island unsettled 15-18 June

Unread post by Myself »

Karshvardidgâh wrote:
spwill wrote:Looks like an unsettled westerly pattern moving in. The start of our winter ?.
Looking quite scary at the moment,bit far out yet though so it might calm down a bit in a few runs but I think you might be right with the words "The start of our winter" :-k
When is it looking like rolling in?
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Re: North Island unsettled 15-18 June

Unread post by Michael »

ugly!
Myself wrote:
Karshvardidgâh wrote:Looks like an unsettled westerly pattern moving in. The start of our winter ?.
Looking quite scary at the moment,bit far out yet though so it might calm down a bit in a few runs but I think you might be right with the words "The start of our winter" :-k
When is it looking like rolling in?[/quote]
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Re: North Island unsettled 15-18 June

Unread post by Myself »

Michael wrote:ugly!
Nice! Looks like a rare SW'erly for you there Michael!
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Re: North Island unsettled 15-18 June

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Michael wrote:ugly!

Yes, like a "Drewery side Rod" system, according to that ECMWF model ;)

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Re: North Island unsettled 15-18 June

Unread post by Michael »

Fortunately the model shows the high going back to Australia the 2 days following it so it should go back westerly which apart from heavy showers its not so bad here.
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Re: North Island unsettled 15-18 June

Unread post by jamie »

Wow we have had a lot more rain than i was expecting out of this. Foggy has recoreded about 45mm which is really good the the region. Looking at the radar loops the rain is now moving back north. All day yesterday the rain was moving south. So it is being wraped around this little low overland. Also i notice on his graphs it shows the low centre passing very close to him. Pressure droped sharply and wind speed spiked at the same time.

Still raining nicely here in Hamilton :)
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Re: North Island unsettled 15-18 June

Unread post by Michael »

Perhaps we should use the north for hydro power at least in the cooler months,as the westcoast in the SI and hydrolakes show no forseeable rain for a while(if there is its cold,locked up with snow) and southwesterly Rain just skips that region and moves north instead,NW winds are so scarce this year.
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Re: North Island unsettled 15-18 June

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yes, lovely warm rain, muchly needed
cold SE wind now here, only 9oC now...but the sun outs today
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