Early July storms & Cold outbreak - South Is.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Looks like our next Cold dose is going to be on friday. Im off to queenstown from CHCH on sunday 6th to friday 11th. Am hoping there will be a polar blast in this period but im worried its not going to be anyone got good news for me?

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[gopolks]

I could be wrong, but this week for will be fine , a cold front moves in on friday for a couple of days, but I dont think its going to be polar.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yeah thats the impression i get as well. Im hoping at some stage from July 6 - 11 that we get something half decent

[spwill]

Im off to queenstown from CHCH on sunday 6th to friday 11th. Am hoping there will be a polar blast

looks like a burst of Polar air for the south from Friday. Very early days but I would say the risk of snow for Qtwn friday, Sat clearing Sunday with the flow southerly by then.

[TonyT]

Looks like our next Cold dose is going to be on friday. Im off to queenstown from CHCH on sunday 6th to friday 11th. Am hoping there will be a polar blast in this period but im worried its not going to be anyone got good news for me?

Yes. There is a good pizza place in Queenstown.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

lol, mad cow? is that the one?

[Michael]

Pizza Hut,Dominoes and Hell I guess.

[NZstorm]

Should see a return to unstable squally conditions in the west with thunderstorms possible Wednesday and again Fri/Sat.
The models are advertising a wintry blast end of the week for the South Island but beyond the weekend its getting a bit far out but there is a high in the frame atm.

[Lawrence]

Looks like our next Cold dose is going to be on friday. Im off to queenstown from CHCH on sunday 6th to friday 11th. Am hoping there will be a polar blast in this period but im worried its not going to be anyone got good news for me?

Next polar blast seems pretty standard, its the one after the 6th I'm going to keep my eye on though, if you catch my drift.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Karshvardidgâh, are you predicting something big after the 6th july and before the 11th?

[Inny Binny]

Next polar blast seems pretty standard, its the one after the 6th I'm going to keep my eye on though, if you catch my drift.

I think so too, but I wonder how many runs this will last:

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[Michael]

Hope one of those highs push up from the south like last year,the only one seems to be the one caught by our low between here and South America.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

getting the impression now that this snow band forecast for fri and sat is now likely to last into sunday as well

[Lawrence]

Karshvardidgâh, are you predicting something big after the 6th july and before the 11th?

Latest ECMWF models have had the run of high pressures tending to move and push southward along the Tasman. As the series of lows have moved away, they are being effectively cut off from any cold feeding of the system from the south. This isolation of the low pattern seems to end as the jet steam storm track looks to become more amplified. The cold up welling after the 6th July reaches as high as 30 degrees south, this cold usually falls back and tends to follow the contours of the land mass of Australia and effectively shelters New Zealand from large surges which surge higher over large areas of sea than land, sometimes though the high pressure tends to weaken or level out and a cold up welling of polar air pushes up with such force that it overcomes the high pressure and the land mass has little effect on degrading the system A very deep low seems to form out from the Antarctic at around 95 degrees east and 55 degrees south which some times seems to indicate such an event. Obviously this is way to far out to accurately predict exactly but it’s an anomaly to keep a watch for.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Oh ok thats really interesting stuff. So do you believe its possible we could get a polar blast between 6 and 11th july? Your thoughts on that?

[gllitz]

Karshvardidgâh, are you predicting something big after the 6th july and before the 11th?

Latest ECMWF models have had the run of high pressures tending to move and push southward along the Tasman. As the series of lows have moved away, they are being effectively cut off from any cold feeding of the system from the south. This isolation of the low pattern seems to end as the jet steam storm track looks to become more amplified. The cold up welling after the 6th July reaches as high as 30 degrees south, this cold usually falls back and tends to follow the contours of the land mass of Australia and effectively shelters New Zealand from large surges which surge higher over large areas of sea than land, sometimes though the high pressure tends to weaken or level out and a cold up welling of polar air pushes up with such force that it overcomes the high pressure and the land mass has little effect on degrading the system A very deep low seems to form out from the Antarctic at around 95 degrees east and 55 degrees south which some times seems to indicate such an event. Obviously this is way to far out to accurately predict exactly but it’s an anomaly to keep a watch for.

Yes, interesting stuff...the NOGAPS model (which tends to be conservative..at least, that's my feeling about it, anyway) IS showing something coming our way...will need to keep a watch on this event (as I am sure the M/S and BlueSkies are doing) as the NOGAPS shows another low forming off the Canty coast, similar to the one from this past weekend, but this time a big difference: the low is NOT cut off from cold air coming from the deep south...will be interesting to watch over the next few days how it pans out...

Please see attached...pics obtained from the FNMOC web site.

Cheers,
Glenn

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yes, blue skies is forecasting snow to sea level from southland to canterbury for saturday now! Interesting reading gllitz! Imagine if the air was cold enough and we had enough rain as last time with it all falling as snow!! Would be wicked!! Im driving down to queenstown on sundat 6th and im hoping snow will be around in the period from sunday6th to fri 11th. It better me! Ive been looking forward to this for ages! Im just hoping this system coming doesnt die out on sunday like it seems it is forecast to do. Hope it changes!

[gllitz]

Yes, blue skies is forecasting snow to sea level from southland to canterbury for saturday now! Interesting reading gllitz! Imagine if the air was cold enough and we had enough rain as last time with it all falling as snow!! Would be wicked!! Im driving down to queenstown on sundat 6th and im hoping snow will be around in the period from sunday6th to fri 11th. It better me! Ive been looking forward to this for ages! Im just hoping this system coming doesnt die out on sunday like it seems it is forecast to do. Hope it changes!

Honestly, I had not looked at BlueSkies at all before posting mmy previous...they must be very confident for them to be forecasting snow to sea level this far out

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yes, at least we know something will evenuate! Do you believe snow will fall on sunday and monday from this system on friday or do you think it'll die out sunday?

[TonyT]

Yes, at least we know something will evenuate?

No one knows that. The air is certainly cold enough to support snow to sea level, but the amount of precip forecast by the model is not great, and the airflow is more SW than S, so although the potential exists, there are certainly factors which could mitigate and turn it into a fine cold weekend for Canterbury.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

oh ok, i guess i am just being overally postive about it lol. Fingers crossed

[Michael]

Easy,Rain,showers everyday,cloud and sun inbetween,nothing below 2° or above 17°

[NZstorm]

Judging by tonights GFS looking good for snow to sea level in the South Island overnight Friday into Saturday. And given the deep layer instability forecast there could be quite heavy falls on the coastward hills of Southland and Otago and even thunder/hail possible around the coast. Snow also over the central Plateau of the NI.

[Lawrence]

Getting fairly misty /foggy here -0.4c,dew point -1.5. at the moment.Baro 1016 hpa.

[Andy]

Getting fairly misty /foggy here -0.4c,dew point -1.5. at the moment.Baro 1016 hpa.

Yep no surprise after the amount of rain we had over the weekend