Early July storms & Cold outbreak - South Is.
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- CHCH Weather Chaser
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Early July storms & Cold outbreak - South Is.
Looks like our next Cold dose is going to be on friday. Im off to queenstown from CHCH on sunday 6th to friday 11th. Am hoping there will be a polar blast in this period but im worried its not going to be anyone got good news for me?
Mod edit: title edit
Mod edit: title edit
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
I could be wrong, but this week for will be fine , a cold front moves in on friday for a couple of days, but I dont think its going to be polar.
- CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
Yeah thats the impression i get as well. Im hoping at some stage from July 6 - 11 that we get something half decent
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Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
looks like a burst of Polar air for the south from Friday. Very early days but I would say the risk of snow for Qtwn friday, Sat clearing Sunday with the flow southerly by then.Im off to queenstown from CHCH on sunday 6th to friday 11th. Am hoping there will be a polar blast
- TonyT
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
Yes. There is a good pizza place in Queenstown.MarkThomas wrote:Looks like our next Cold dose is going to be on friday. Im off to queenstown from CHCH on sunday 6th to friday 11th. Am hoping there will be a polar blast in this period but im worried its not going to be anyone got good news for me?
- CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
lol, mad cow? is that the one?
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
- NZstorm
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
Should see a return to unstable squally conditions in the west with thunderstorms possible Wednesday and again Fri/Sat.
The models are advertising a wintry blast end of the week for the South Island but beyond the weekend its getting a bit far out but there is a high in the frame atm.
The models are advertising a wintry blast end of the week for the South Island but beyond the weekend its getting a bit far out but there is a high in the frame atm.
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
Next polar blast seems pretty standard, its the one after the 6th I'm going to keep my eye on though, if you catch my drift.MarkThomas wrote:Looks like our next Cold dose is going to be on friday. Im off to queenstown from CHCH on sunday 6th to friday 11th. Am hoping there will be a polar blast in this period but im worried its not going to be anyone got good news for me?
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
Karshvardidgâh, are you predicting something big after the 6th july and before the 11th?
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
I think so too, but I wonder how many runs this will last:Next polar blast seems pretty standard, its the one after the 6th I'm going to keep my eye on though, if you catch my drift.
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- Michael
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
Hope one of those highs push up from the south like last year,the only one seems to be the one caught by our low between here and South America.
- CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
getting the impression now that this snow band forecast for fri and sat is now likely to last into sunday as well
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Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
- Lawrence
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
Latest ECMWF models have had the run of high pressures tending to move and push southward along the Tasman. As the series of lows have moved away, they are being effectively cut off from any cold feeding of the system from the south. This isolation of the low pattern seems to end as the jet steam storm track looks to become more amplified. The cold up welling after the 6th July reaches as high as 30 degrees south, this cold usually falls back and tends to follow the contours of the land mass of Australia and effectively shelters New Zealand from large surges which surge higher over large areas of sea than land, sometimes though the high pressure tends to weaken or level out and a cold up welling of polar air pushes up with such force that it overcomes the high pressure and the land mass has little effect on degrading the system A very deep low seems to form out from the Antarctic at around 95 degrees east and 55 degrees south which some times seems to indicate such an event. Obviously this is way to far out to accurately predict exactly but it’s an anomaly to keep a watch for.MarkThomas wrote:Karshvardidgâh, are you predicting something big after the 6th july and before the 11th?
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Last edited by Lawrence on Mon 30/06/2008 14:45, edited 1 time in total.
- CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
Oh ok thats really interesting stuff. So do you believe its possible we could get a polar blast between 6 and 11th july? Your thoughts on that?
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
Karshvardidgâh wrote:Latest ECMWF models have had the run of high pressures tending to move and push southward along the Tasman. As the series of lows have moved away, they are being effectively cut off from any cold feeding of the system from the south. This isolation of the low pattern seems to end as the jet steam storm track looks to become more amplified. The cold up welling after the 6th July reaches as high as 30 degrees south, this cold usually falls back and tends to follow the contours of the land mass of Australia and effectively shelters New Zealand from large surges which surge higher over large areas of sea than land, sometimes though the high pressure tends to weaken or level out and a cold up welling of polar air pushes up with such force that it overcomes the high pressure and the land mass has little effect on degrading the system A very deep low seems to form out from the Antarctic at around 95 degrees east and 55 degrees south which some times seems to indicate such an event. Obviously this is way to far out to accurately predict exactly but it’s an anomaly to keep a watch for.MarkThomas wrote:Karshvardidgâh, are you predicting something big after the 6th july and before the 11th?
Yes, interesting stuff...the NOGAPS model (which tends to be conservative..at least, that's my feeling about it, anyway) IS showing something coming our way...will need to keep a watch on this event (as I am sure the M/S and BlueSkies are doing) as the NOGAPS shows another low forming off the Canty coast, similar to the one from this past weekend, but this time a big difference: the low is NOT cut off from cold air coming from the deep south...will be interesting to watch over the next few days how it pans out...
Please see attached...pics obtained from the FNMOC web site.
Cheers,
Glenn
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"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
Yes, blue skies is forecasting snow to sea level from southland to canterbury for saturday now! Interesting reading gllitz! Imagine if the air was cold enough and we had enough rain as last time with it all falling as snow!! Would be wicked!! Im driving down to queenstown on sundat 6th and im hoping snow will be around in the period from sunday6th to fri 11th. It better me! Ive been looking forward to this for ages! Im just hoping this system coming doesnt die out on sunday like it seems it is forecast to do. Hope it changes!
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
Honestly, I had not looked at BlueSkies at all before posting mmy previous...they must be very confident for them to be forecasting snow to sea level this far outMarkThomas wrote:Yes, blue skies is forecasting snow to sea level from southland to canterbury for saturday now! Interesting reading gllitz! Imagine if the air was cold enough and we had enough rain as last time with it all falling as snow!! Would be wicked!! Im driving down to queenstown on sundat 6th and im hoping snow will be around in the period from sunday6th to fri 11th. It better me! Ive been looking forward to this for ages! Im just hoping this system coming doesnt die out on sunday like it seems it is forecast to do. Hope it changes!
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
Yes, at least we know something will evenuate! Do you believe snow will fall on sunday and monday from this system on friday or do you think it'll die out sunday?
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
No one knows that. The air is certainly cold enough to support snow to sea level, but the amount of precip forecast by the model is not great, and the airflow is more SW than S, so although the potential exists, there are certainly factors which could mitigate and turn it into a fine cold weekend for Canterbury.MarkThomas wrote:Yes, at least we know something will evenuate?
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
oh ok, i guess i am just being overally postive about it lol. Fingers crossed
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
Easy,Rain,showers everyday,cloud and sun inbetween,nothing below 2° or above 17°
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
Judging by tonights GFS looking good for snow to sea level in the South Island overnight Friday into Saturday. And given the deep layer instability forecast there could be quite heavy falls on the coastward hills of Southland and Otago and even thunder/hail possible around the coast. Snow also over the central Plateau of the NI.
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
Getting fairly misty /foggy here -0.4c,dew point -1.5. at the moment.Baro 1016 hpa.
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Re: Outlook for first two Weeks July!
Yep no surprise after the amount of rain we had over the weekendKarshvardidgâh wrote:Getting fairly misty /foggy here -0.4c,dew point -1.5. at the moment.Baro 1016 hpa.