A Trough from July 19/20th
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
-
- Posts: 18531
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1781 times
- Been thanked: 1429 times
A Trough from July 19/20th
Although it may be a wee bit early, there looks like a tendancy for a major trough to move over New Zealand from next WE, the 19/20th July and into the next week.
Let's see what it yields?
JohnGaul
NZTS
Let's see what it yields?
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
-
- Posts: 9933
- Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
- Location: Mt Eden Auckland
- Has thanked: 870 times
- Been thanked: 880 times
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
Warm moist air feeding onto NZ by late week and perhaps a lazy High out to the east to slow frontal activity, could be very wet for some.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
Yes, NZ could be a dumping ground for subtropical moisture at the end of the week. Also looking unstable at this stage in the north and west of the country from Friday into the weekend. A bit far out but something to watch in the models.
- spike_01
- Posts: 668
- Joined: Thu 25/08/2005 10:06
- Location: Wellington
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
Michael wrote:It will be a bloody Auckland event yet again.
Or Tauranga.. Coz I am going there on Friday for a week..
- Vertigo
- Posts: 1184
- Joined: Sun 09/12/2007 23:50
- Location: Henderson, Auckland
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 12 times
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
you say that as if its a bad thingMichael wrote:It will be a bloody Auckland event yet again.
- David
- Posts: 7589
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 423 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
Judging by the models, the Tasman becomes a breeding ground for low pressure systems in the next week. Looking quite wet for Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Any chance of thunderstorms?
Quite a foggy morning today, and a peak gust of 15km/h for the day here. Looks like a good chance of more fog tomorrow morning, currently very little wind and humidity around 80%.
Quite a foggy morning today, and a peak gust of 15km/h for the day here. Looks like a good chance of more fog tomorrow morning, currently very little wind and humidity around 80%.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
Could be a low risk for Auckland around Thursday due to very moist air/surface trough. The dynamics for thunderstorms firms up at the weekend.Any chance of thunderstorms?
-
- Posts: 18531
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1781 times
- Been thanked: 1429 times
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
Still looking good on target for next week although,sadly a ridge, may infiltrate
However, looking good for hydro lake filling, more wet weather for western regions and maybe a thunderstorm popping over to the east coast of the South Island. This and some more snow to the ski-fields.
JohnGaul
NZTS
However, looking good for hydro lake filling, more wet weather for western regions and maybe a thunderstorm popping over to the east coast of the South Island. This and some more snow to the ski-fields.
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
-
- Posts: 32
- Joined: Sat 28/06/2008 13:58
- Location: Te Anau
- Has thanked: 1 time
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
seems like there is something up as the models show systems "blobbing out" as they get here. They look like there isnt going to be too much energy to them. Is there some sort of upper level high pressure thing happening causing the lows to lose intensity?
- Michael
- Posts: 7210
- Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
- Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 1 time
- Contact:
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
Theyre are just those shallow /cutoff lows that disappear as quick(after affecting us) and replaced by another N or NE flow when an old fashioned low to the south with a westerly dominance looms.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
This shallow low looks like hanging around for a couple of days with the air becoming more moist as well. Looks like a heavy rainfall event could be on the cards for northern NZ overnight Friday/Saturday morning with thunderstorms possible. Areas most likely to be affected are regions exposed to the north such as Northland/Coromandal and the BOP. And then a colder airmass moving through Saturday will bring squally thunderstorms/hail to the west and north of the North island later Saturday.
-
- Posts: 18531
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1781 times
- Been thanked: 1429 times
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
...and to cap it off, ECMWF are suggeting a major low pressure system to develop in the north Tasman sea, later next week
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
-
- Posts: 9933
- Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
- Location: Mt Eden Auckland
- Has thanked: 870 times
- Been thanked: 880 times
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
Looks like some wintry air ( snow to low levels) showing up in the mix for mid next week.
Bleak here today, dull and cold with light rain setting in later.
Bleak here today, dull and cold with light rain setting in later.
- Michael
- Posts: 7210
- Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
- Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 1 time
- Contact:
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
Yes i saw that tonight it comes quick too for us only.Wont let me upload it but go to ECMWF goto 168 it only gets uglier in the winterful north.GFS only goes 1 week but looks just as bad.
- gllitz
- Posts: 1335
- Joined: Wed 04/01/2006 11:45
- Location: Perth, Western Australia
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
Indeed...both NOGAPS and GFS are showing another deep low passing over the SI (similar to one we had almost 2 weeks ago) mid-late next week, but still too early to make any calls except it will be colder and wetter next week....spwill wrote:Looks like some wintry air ( snow to low levels) showing up in the mix for mid next week.
Bleak here today, dull and cold with light rain setting in later.
"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"
-
- Posts: 9933
- Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
- Location: Mt Eden Auckland
- Has thanked: 870 times
- Been thanked: 880 times
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
Perhaps cold air in place over NZ with the approach of a North Tasman Low later next week, that could be a snow maker for Canterbury.
- CHCH Weather Chaser
- Posts: 3460
- Joined: Thu 26/06/2008 16:10
- Location: Halswell / Hoon Hay Christchurch
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
Yes, we are due for another wintry outbreak lol, the weather has been rather boring here the last week with fine and cloudy periods. No precipitation that i can remember here in halswell. Forecast today is for patchy drizzle but fair bit of blue sky and sunny periods and looking brighter all the time here atm.
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
- David
- Posts: 7589
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 423 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
Whats happening with the rain?
The rain was supposed to be here hours and hours ago, yet it hasn't rained for the whole day. Doesn't help that metservice radars have not updated since 3pm, so typical.
The rain was supposed to be here hours and hours ago, yet it hasn't rained for the whole day. Doesn't help that metservice radars have not updated since 3pm, so typical.
-
- Posts: 18531
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1781 times
- Been thanked: 1429 times
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
Perhaps not as major as what I thought it may of been, but could be significant now for some colder weather and some more snow.
Too much high pressure intruson.
JohnGaul
NZTS
Too much high pressure intruson.
JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
-
- Meteorologist (Retired)
- Posts: 406
- Joined: Thu 27/10/2005 20:44
- Location: Greytown
- Has thanked: 2 times
- Been thanked: 7 times
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
OK you guys in the north of the North Island... it looks like you have some action coming Saturday evening. Happy hunting!!
Paul
Paul
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
We are watching and waiting in anticipation Paul! Hopefully we can catch a storm with the early evening front and then another in the colder airmass early Sunday. GFS is plotting reasonable instability for mid winter.
- Willoughby
- Site Admin
- Posts: 4433
- Joined: Sat 14/06/2003 16:18
- Location: Darwin, Australia: Storm city
- Has thanked: 264 times
- Been thanked: 288 times
- Contact:
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
Instability out over the Tasman Sea really starting to show now with an isolated Cb exploding some 220 nautical miles to the west of Kaipara this evening.
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th
yes!
just noticed that
the way it has exploded is like a midwest CB!
and lots of strikes showed up with my tracker too, from it!
just noticed that
the way it has exploded is like a midwest CB!
and lots of strikes showed up with my tracker too, from it!