A Trough from July 19/20th

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A Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Although it may be a wee bit early, there looks like a tendancy for a major trough to move over New Zealand from next WE, the 19/20th July and into the next week.
Let's see what it yields?

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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by spwill »

Warm moist air feeding onto NZ by late week and perhaps a lazy High out to the east to slow frontal activity, could be very wet for some.
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, NZ could be a dumping ground for subtropical moisture at the end of the week. Also looking unstable at this stage in the north and west of the country from Friday into the weekend. A bit far out but something to watch in the models.
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by Michael »

It will be a bloody Auckland event yet again.
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by spike_01 »

Michael wrote:It will be a bloody Auckland event yet again.

Or Tauranga.. Coz I am going there on Friday for a week.. ](*,) :?
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by Vertigo »

Michael wrote:It will be a bloody Auckland event yet again.
you say that as if its a bad thing :o
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by David »

Judging by the models, the Tasman becomes a breeding ground for low pressure systems in the next week. Looking quite wet for Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Any chance of thunderstorms?

Quite a foggy morning today, and a peak gust of 15km/h for the day here. Looks like a good chance of more fog tomorrow morning, currently very little wind and humidity around 80%.
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by NZstorm »

Any chance of thunderstorms?
Could be a low risk for Auckland around Thursday due to very moist air/surface trough. The dynamics for thunderstorms firms up at the weekend.
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Still looking good on target for next week although,sadly a ridge, may infiltrate :evil:
However, looking good for hydro lake filling, more wet weather for western regions and maybe a thunderstorm popping over to the east coast of the South Island. This and some more snow to the ski-fields.

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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by teanaumalone »

seems like there is something up as the models show systems "blobbing out" as they get here. They look like there isnt going to be too much energy to them. Is there some sort of upper level high pressure thing happening causing the lows to lose intensity?
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by Michael »

Theyre are just those shallow /cutoff lows that disappear as quick(after affecting us) and replaced by another N or NE flow when an old fashioned low to the south with a westerly dominance looms.
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by NZstorm »

This shallow low looks like hanging around for a couple of days with the air becoming more moist as well. Looks like a heavy rainfall event could be on the cards for northern NZ overnight Friday/Saturday morning with thunderstorms possible. Areas most likely to be affected are regions exposed to the north such as Northland/Coromandal and the BOP. And then a colder airmass moving through Saturday will bring squally thunderstorms/hail to the west and north of the North island later Saturday.
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

...and to cap it off, ECMWF are suggeting a major low pressure system to develop in the north Tasman sea, later next week :shock:

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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by spwill »

Looks like some wintry air ( snow to low levels) showing up in the mix for mid next week.
Bleak here today, dull and cold with light rain setting in later.
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by Michael »

Yes i saw that tonight it comes quick too for us only.Wont let me upload it but go to ECMWF goto 168 it only gets uglier in the winterful north.GFS only goes 1 week but looks just as bad.
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by gllitz »

spwill wrote:Looks like some wintry air ( snow to low levels) showing up in the mix for mid next week.
Bleak here today, dull and cold with light rain setting in later.
Indeed...both NOGAPS and GFS are showing another deep low passing over the SI (similar to one we had almost 2 weeks ago) mid-late next week, but still too early to make any calls except it will be colder and wetter next week.... :-k
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by spwill »

Perhaps cold air in place over NZ with the approach of a North Tasman Low later next week, that could be a snow maker for Canterbury.
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Yes, we are due for another wintry outbreak lol, the weather has been rather boring here the last week with fine and cloudy periods. No precipitation that i can remember here in halswell. Forecast today is for patchy drizzle but fair bit of blue sky and sunny periods and looking brighter all the time here atm.
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by David »

Whats happening with the rain?
The rain was supposed to be here hours and hours ago, yet it hasn't rained for the whole day. Doesn't help that metservice radars have not updated since 3pm, so typical. :?
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Perhaps not as major as what I thought it may of been, but could be significant now for some colder weather and some more snow. [-X
Too much high pressure intruson. :twisted:

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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by Paul Mallinson »

OK you guys in the north of the North Island... it looks like you have some action coming Saturday evening. Happy hunting!!

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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by NZstorm »

We are watching and waiting in anticipation Paul! Hopefully we can catch a storm with the early evening front and then another in the colder airmass early Sunday. GFS is plotting reasonable instability for mid winter.
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by spwill »

Has been mild here today, 17C with 14C dewpoints. Overcaste.
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by Willoughby »

Instability out over the Tasman Sea really starting to show now with an isolated Cb exploding some 220 nautical miles to the west of Kaipara this evening.
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Re: Major Trough from July 19/20th

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yes!
just noticed that
the way it has exploded is like a midwest CB!
and lots of strikes showed up with my tracker too, from it!
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