The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

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The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Looking at models it seems our next dose of Winter weather to hit the South Island is coming during the middle of next week with sleet to sea level in areas and snow between 200m -500m in certain areas. It always seems that the coldest part of winter does come after the shortest day and particuarly the end of july and beginning of August is typical for this
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by gllitz »

I'm not really holding out much for this system...doesn't look as likely (as the last 2 that did produce snow) for us in CHCH to get anything worth watching out for...will it snow in the ranges/skifields? Yes...shock and horror :| :|

Snow here to sea level? I think not... [-(


(Might be wrong, tho....... 8-[ )
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Yes, i agree with you. There is just something about this that doesnt get me very excited at all :( mind you it is still a fair bit away yet things can change but the confidence and vibe for this is no where near as great for snow as the previous couple of blasts. Metservice is saying snow to around 500m on Tuesday and then the air turning more Southerly and even colder into Wednesday and we do have NW gales forecasts for Parts of Monday and into Tuesday and so often the bitter weather hits after the milder NW periods. Not excited at the moment though
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by gllitz »

Hmmm...last night's model run has changed quite a bit...may need to re-consider my thoughts above for later next week...still too early to call, though :-k
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by NZstorm »

12ZGFS Thickness chart for later next week does suggest some low level snow for east of South Island. Chart doesn't look that believable though.

If the subtropical low to the north could move down onto NZ what a great warm front /warm advective snow there would be! :)
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

It seems looking at the METUV models that their is a fair amount of precipitation forecast this far out for Wednesday and into Thursday. Just got to hope the air is cold enough for the snow. It does seem that the 500m predictions for snow have dropped to 200-300m from both Blue Skies and Metservice though, with wintry showers to Sea Level. Guess just have to wait and see. Still a good 5 days or so away yet so we just have to sit and watch. 5mm here today with steady morning drizzle and light rain. Some warmer weather on the way here for the next few days with the N flow. Should be nice.
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by Razor »

Holy ****!!!! :shock: :o :twisted:
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by gllitz »

Razor wrote:Holy ****!!!! :shock: :o :twisted:
Not quite the words I would have used, but yes, it is impressive...will have to see how it pans out over the next couple of days, but it looks pretty good (at the beginning, anyway) for "wintry showers" to low levels...that run may have been a fluke ("Oops..carried the one when shouldn't have" kinda thing....)...warms up quite a bit, so will be cold, wet, and soggy :(
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by Ryan Thomas »

Wow, does that look like snow?
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by Inny Binny »

No. Doesn't look like snow to sea level with that.
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by Razor »

Looks like a significant heavy rain event on top of reasonably damp land already....thats what my holy **** was about
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Yes definately looks like we got the precipitation this time just need the air to allow snow to sea level. Metservice is forecasting Southerly Gales at this stage with snow to 600m on Wednesday lowering to 200m overnight and for all Thursday
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by gllitz »

MarkThomas wrote:Yes definately looks like we got the precipitation this time just need the air to allow snow to sea level. Metservice is forecasting Southerly Gales at this stage with snow to 600m on Wednesday lowering to 200m overnight and for all Thursday
Yeah, remember what happened LAST time they said snow to 200m..... ;) :roll: :roll: ....but I don't see it happening with this system...yet....As Razor has said, lots of water on top of what is already damp land could bring flooding to some areas....
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Yes, well long as we have wild weather one way or the other im not too bothed :D. It does look rather messy from Wed right thru to about Sunday looking at some maps and forecasts
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by gopolks »

Temps will be way too warm, mid teens all week for the high, over night lows will be around6/7 degrees, a raining week, but thats about it.
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by melja »

I would be surprised to see temps in the mid teens all week, dont think that will happen and nothing suggests this happening.
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by gopolks »

melja wrote:I would be surprised to see temps in the mid teens all week, dont think that will happen and nothing suggests this happening.
Yeah your right, Heck what was i thinking?
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Another interesting event indeed, nothing too significant though perhaps some nice rainfall totals and strong winds but nothing like the previous lows this winter.
I actually think we have had more rainfall this winter so far than that of the last 3 years of winter, which means an interesting spring and storm season if it keeps up with the moist and damp grounds.
Bring on summer though I say, starting to get abit of winteritis but we are past mid winter now so it can only go up hill from here.
In that I mean longer daylight hours and milder temperatures, occasionally.
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by spwill »

mid teens all week for the high, over night lows will be around6/7 degrees
But the flow is cold onshore from Wendsday ( eastern SI), looks like it will hang around.
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by teanaumalone »

lates GFS is showing some potential for in interesting event towards the end of the week. Also this was recently posted on snow-forecast.com's nz pages.

"Advanced snowfall warning for New Zealand issued 20th July at 7:30pm NZ time. A deep Tasman low pressure system will quickly cross New Zealand on Tuesday bringing some snow to many resorts. As the low departs it will leave all of NZ in a cold SE flow. Low pressure forming off the Queensland coast on Friday will quickly move towards New Zealand. There is potential to generate an intense precipitation event at the weekend, with very heavy snowfall on mountains along the southern boundary of the moist tropical air. The eastern side of the South Island is most at risk but there is a large degree of uncertainty at this stage. "

Will be interesting to see how the models develop over the next few days.
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by Michael »

Though not that cold I say bring on summer too,If you had enough of Rain,Leaves,pine needles,condensation,wind keeping you awake,unable to get anything outdoors done.......
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Yes, the air is forecast to be very cold from wednesday afternoon with very strong cold southerly gales and heavy rain at time with snow to 200m.
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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by Philip Duncan »

BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES - WINTER STORM ON THE WAY
Posted Sun, 20/07/2008 - 19:05

After two relatively settled weeks another violent winter storm is about to lash New Zealand with heavy rain, severe gales and snow to low levels. The low, which will develop during Monday in the Tasman Sea, between Tasmania and Southland, is expected to rapidly deepen and by mid-week will be affecting the entire country.

The Radio Network's head weather analyst, Philip Duncan, says this storm has the potential to be damaging. "Gale force winds wont just be confined to Wellington and Wairarapa - they could stretch as far south as Invercargill and as far north as Auckland".

Won't post the whole thing here...so go to www.weatherwatch.co.nz for the rest of the story. Looks like a hum-dinger this one. Not sure how much snow there'll be but the wind is certainly gonna be big in some places.

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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

philip duncan wrote:BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES - WINTER STORM ON THE WAY
Posted Sun, 20/07/2008 - 19:05

After two relatively settled weeks another violent winter storm is about to lash New Zealand with heavy rain, severe gales and snow to low levels. The low, which will develop during Monday in the Tasman Sea, between Tasmania and Southland, is expected to rapidly deepen and by mid-week will be affecting the entire country.

The Radio Network's head weather analyst, Philip Duncan, says this storm has the potential to be damaging. "Gale force winds wont just be confined to Wellington and Wairarapa - they could stretch as far south as Invercargill and as far north as Auckland".

Won't post the whole thing here...so go to http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz for the rest of the story. Looks like a hum-dinger this one. Not sure how much snow there'll be but the wind is certainly gonna be big in some places.

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Umm.. yeah,, well this was what I had in mind when I posted the topic
A Major Trough from July 19/20th
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc on Sat 12/07/2008 21:32
Although it may be a wee bit early, there looks like a tendancy for a major trough to move over New Zealand from next WE, the 19/20th July and into the next week.
Let's see what it yields?


As the event drew closer it didn't seem to that severe as what I first thought, you know what models are like, but then now something may happen?
As I said - Let's see what it yields :)

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Re: The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

Unread post by gllitz »

Latest and greatest GFS run has shifted back again...flippy-floppy!! ](*,) ](*,)
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The wee dip there tells me snow to sea level for a period, but turning back to rain...should be interesting, for sure... :-k

Gonna be a big dump for inland areas, if this keeps up....
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