The Next Dose of Winter to Hit Us!

[Manukau heads obs]

big CB moving over the waitaks now!
big anvil and mama cloud
heading for south auckland

[Nev]

Very good and informative article from the 'Taranaki Daily News' about yesterday morning's Tornado.

'Twister shreds milking shed'

Congrats to the journalist, Harriet Palmer for not only not using the 'm-word', but also informing the public about Tornado-scales (with a little help from Paul Mallinson).

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

It seems the Metservice have been right the whole time. That snow is only going to fall at the very lowest 500m. I hate getting excited about snow to sea level and then to find its not the case

This seems weird: Dunedin Today:" Rain developing, hilltop snow. Strong southerlies" - yet it says snow to 600m in rural weather....i dunno

[Razor]

Mark thats an example of a post that is just plain silly. The personification of the weather round here is sheer lunacy sometimes, the weather will be what the weather will be, yes we all look forward to seeing it snow, but no amount of willing it to happen will change things

For the record, and I said this right at the start of this system, I'm picking significant rainfall on top of already wet soil here in Canterbury, and that may coause soem flooding. Am flying to Dunedin today, I see hillside snow is on the cards there tonight...will take the camera just in case

[jamie]

Very good and informative article from the 'Taranaki Daily News' about yesterday morning's Tornado.

'Twister shreds milking shed'

Congrats to the journalist, Harriet Palmer for not only not using the 'm-word', but also informing the public about Tornado-scales (with a little help from Paul Mallinson).

Heck that would not have been fun if they were milking at the time. There would have been cows everywhere

[Manukau heads obs]

Taranaki sure has had it fair share lately!

[teanaumalone]

dare I mention the "f" word (fizzer!). Precip amounts predicted for canterbury have backed right off now.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Philip Duncan reckons at this stage we are likely to get sleet to sea level and snow to 200m or so. Not quite polar enough.

[tidd66]

Overcast with a bit of drizzle in Gore still calm though. MS forcasting sleet later on, dont know dont think it will come to much just seems like a very dull day.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Here we go, this is from the metservice for Canterbury tomorrow (Thursday). Ashburton has a high of just 4 degrees for Friday!

"Strong cold southerlies and rain. Snow gradually lowering to 200 metres, heavy for a time near the foothills but easing in the evening."

Blue skies have just put their forecast through at 12.49pm and they are still saying snow lowering to near sea level on Thursday Afternoon.

[spwill]

Strong SouthWesterlies blowing through here this afternoon, probably calm at Michaels house.

The Cg Lightning shot from last night is the tower on top of One Tree Hill being struck, the highest point in Auckland City I think.

[Michael]

Theyre still westerlies,gusty but not gale yet.

Strong SouthWesterlies blowing through here this afternoon, probably calm at Michaels house.

The Cg Lightning shot from last night is the tower on top of One Tree Hill being struck, the highest point in Auckland City I think.

[03Stormchaser]

Better late than never, but nice photos Simon!

[gopolks]

metservice is saying snow to 500 metres overnight, and lowering to 200 metres tomorrow, then raising again on friday to 600 metres.

Fencepost site seems to be down? whats the latest from them/

[gllitz]

Are not Fencepost/CRT/ATS all from the same forecasters? (i.e. TonyT et al?)

[Razor]

Good cold rain in dunedin. There was a hint of sleet around 3pm.

[gllitz]

How was the trip, Razor? A bit bumpy?

[Storm Struck]

Should still be some very welcome rainfall totals within the next week or so, people will have to watch those creeksides and rivers in chch.
Interesting to note a sheltering affect of the Port Hills today with that low cloud and drizzle, out towards Godley heads there was patches of blue sky all day even at 5pm when leaving course in town.
Looks like drizzle will turn to rain soon going by latest rain radar, and hopefully some flakes by tomorrow.
That low by the weekend sure looks stormy and some of that will spread southwards onto the south island too.
CRT doesnt seem to work anymore which is why i use Fencepost now and yes it is down at the moment.
Cheers
Jason.

[gopolks]

Fencepost has lifted its snow forcast for chch, its now higher than the metservice, they are saying 400 metres, and metservice saying 200 metres, although fencepost forcast was at 930am.

[Inny Binny]

Maybe tvnz get more frequently updated M/S forecasts, because there were forecasts of occasional flurries to get to plains/city level during the day on the news tonight.

[TonyT]

CRT doesnt seem to work anymore which is why i use Fencepost now and yes it is down at the moment.
Cheers
Jason.

Both sites are working 100% now. Not sure why you had problems earlier.

Fencepost has lifted its snow forcast for chch, its now higher than the metservice, they are saying 400 metres, and metservice saying 200 metres, although fencepost forcast was at 930am.

The models have fluctuated so much on this one, I rather wish we just said "snow to low levels" and didnt bother trying to chase the actual level

[Ryan Thomas]

Thought it was a chance of snow to the plains / city tommorow?

[gllitz]

TonyT-
You mentioned earlier in this thread that snow to sea level was one of several possible scenarios you were considering in forecasting this system...I was wondering if you might be able to share with us the various scenarios and a bit of the meteorological aspects/intricacies behind them?

Cheers,
Glenn

[TonyT]

Thought it was a chance of snow to the plains / city tommorow?

In all honesty its probably about 50/50 No forecaster likes to have to admit that.

[TonyT]

TonyT-
You mentioned earlier in this thread that snow to sea level was one of several possible scenarios you were considering in forecasting this system...I was wondering if you might be able to share with us the various scenarios and a bit of the meteorological aspects/intricacies behind them?

Cheers,
Glenn

Its not as complicated as I might have lead you to believe - its just a question of balancing what various models are saying with each other and with gut feel. Sometimes you end up feeling confident with an outcome, and sometimes you end up feeling uncertain and taking one option (because thats what a forecast is expected to be) even though you have nagging doubts. So, in this case the issues have been
- how cold will it get and when, and what will that mean for snow level
- how much precipitation will fall (taking into account possible orographic enhancements/issues that the models cant resolve) and when, and how that will interact with the temperature changes
- how the movement of the weather systems involved may alter and interact with each other and the topography, and how that will affect wind flows, and then how they will affect the precip and temps.

Its not so much evaluating concise different scenarios, rather working out where on the line of multiple varied outcomes to drive a stake in, and then write a forecast accordingly.