Ryan Thomas wrote:
That was such a bad pun that it made me laugh. But you think Christchurch will be affected by this in a way that isnt clear weather?
The weather wont be clear or fine. I think we may have some unsettledness for the next week or so or
Fairly apocalyptic wording from all these forecasters referenced on the links above - looks like a significant event coming!! When you get people saying a potentially Cat2 here, that's quite amazing! Any views on what conditions have led to this "cyclone" developing so late in the season?
its not a tropical cyclone
never was, never has been
and it should not be categorised as if it was one either
(although you could compare its stength to one, as long as that is made clear)
Phillip Duncan is just using sensational wording so that people will read it
its a low that has originated in the tropic/sub tropics of the coral sea just off queensland
which is predicted to deepend rapidly
it could though bring as much rain and wind to the upper NI as if it was a TC
just my opinions
latest metvuw charts have it slight weaker futher north track again
but met service charts are sticking to more extreme, but also back slightly north...now not crossing right over auckland city, but over the Gulf...
It shouldn't measure up with an ex-TC for rainfall as the warm advection won't make it here in good numbers like you get with a January storm. As for the thunder question, thunderstorms may just make it to the top of Northland but not Auckland. Thats my thoughts anyway.
Does anyone have the 'weather bomb' formula handy? Not sure if this system will deepen by x amount in 24 hours. For sure it's time to make sure the deck chairs are stored in the shed!
But Phiilip, a Tropical Cyclone forms from thunderstorms over water that is at least 27oC
this is not what has happened
this low has formed from a easterly trough with a strong jet stream above it
it bears no resemblence to a tropical cyclone at any stage
its not a fact that its out of season
its not a tropical cyclone and should not be called as such and you are misleading the public
the public do though need to be warned of an approaching nasty storm though, which you are doing, so no problem there
philip duncan wrote:Only weather purists would have an issue with categorising a storm. Who cares if it's not technically in season. A rose by any other name....
Really different structure though. Will we see sustained wind speeds of over 64kts with this system? Possibly but not for very long. The fact that the jet stream is equatorward of the system means that it's very different to a real tropical cyclone.
even if it does produce sustained windspeed of 64kts, meaning you can then say it a sub tropical low with hurricane force winds, that does not mean that you can then call it a tropical cyclone, because thats a different beast altogether (i.e the conditions in which it formed)
actauly an area of thunderstorms forming over warm tropical waters only has to get to a stage where it has a concentric ring of gales to be able to be called a tropical cyclone
the latest metservice weather maps have it down to 965 now even before it gets to north cape 8o
I understand your points and that's a fair call - in my on-air interviews I've been saying it's SIMILAR to a tropical cyclone. The public just want to know if it's like one...they dont care about the details...so that's all I'm doing... drawing comparisons.
ps, just looked , my record low baro is 975.9 18th sep 2005
which resulted in bach owners having their garages flooded on the manukau harbour (but it was a spring tide as well)
could be the same again, as high tide on the manukau is 3:30pm or so on saturday, and with big waves from the east (big fetch) it could could property damage
I will try and get down to the beach to have a look!
Paul Mallinson wrote:I totally agree with your comments on the formation of this cyclone Brian.
Paul
But its not a cyclone!
Can we just call it a tropical depression?
@Phil - rather than assume the public aren't interested, there is an opportunity for some gentle education here if you are fortunate enough to get air time to talk about these things - something along the lines of "its not a tropical cyclone, because the way they form is not possible in the winter season, but its a tropical depression which can form at any time of the year, and shares many of the same characteristics." You might be surprised how keen the public are for this sort of information.
one of the problems though is in the use of the word cyclone....i.e that an anticylone is the opposite ....i.e a cyclone is an area of rotating winds around a central low pressure system....so that means any low...then it gets confusing that, ok, a low over the tropics, i.e cyclone in the tropics is then called a tropical cyclone.....but then to be pandatic its only a tropical cyclone if it formed from an area of thunderstorms over water of 27 or more oC etc etc
yes, I agree, tropical depression or depression of tropical/sub tropical origin is best
It might also be worth noting that there's no evidence of a TC having ever reached NZ intact.
Philip you currently state in your blog, "The New Zealand Cyclone season officially ends in April" and go on to say "the sub-tropical cyclone is the nastiest since Tropical Cyclones Fergus and Drena in the Summer of 96/97".
To me, that's very misleading!
My God, you guys worry about the most ridiculous things.
It's cyclonic. It's a cyclone. It's NOT a tropical cyclone, i agree on that. Storms can retain names once they are no longer in the tropics...it's what human beings do to limit confusion.
I can't be bothered defending such pedantic arguements.
Enjoy the storm.
Hey Tony - yes I agree completely with you...and have been educating the listeners all morning...but at this point, and this location...it doesnt matter where it was 'born'...its just a nasty storm.
TonyT wrote:
Paul Mallinson wrote:I totally agree with your comments on the formation of this cyclone Brian.
Paul
But its not a cyclone!
Can we just call it a tropical depression?
@Phil - rather than assume the public aren't interested, there is an opportunity for some gentle education here if you are fortunate enough to get air time to talk about these things - something along the lines of "its not a tropical cyclone, because the way they form is not possible in the winter season, but its a tropical depression which can form at any time of the year, and shares many of the same characteristics." You might be surprised how keen the public are for this sort of information.
What about in 1959,in my NZ TV1 weather book,the one over Cape Reianga.
Nev wrote:It might also be worth noting that there's no evidence of a TC having ever reached NZ intact.
Philip you currently state in your blog, "The New Zealand Cyclone season officially ends in April" and go on to say "the sub-tropical cyclone is the nastiest since Tropical Cyclones Fergus and Drena in the Summer of 96/97".
To me, that's very misleading!
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