Bomb Low: Jul 25-29th 2008

[Manukau heads obs]

Met service now have a storm warning in force for the Hauraki Gulf for tomorrow afternoon (briefly)
and warnings galor now posted
http://www.metservice.co.nz/default/ind ... s=warnings

(they sure have been busy!!)

[Vertigo]

phillip, what were trying to say is that this is increasing confusion. people equate cyclones with tropical cyclones, so if youre going to call it a cyclone, at least call it an extra-tropical cyclone, and then explain why this is.

back on topic, what was the central pressure of cyclone Bola as it passed over NZ? i find it hard to believe that this might be the most intense storm weve ever had, ive seen my share of intense storms. it looks good, but that good?

[Razor]

Yea I agree with the pedantic ones. Its crucial for experts talking to the media to correct terminology. We are mostly scientists here, and scientists aren't meant to be lazy with the correct wording

[Philip Duncan]

That's the difference - I'm not a scientist and I've been asked by the public to discuss the weather in easy to understand terms. The dictionary defines this as a cyclone. If you don't like it don't read it!

[Razor]

The dictionary???? Which one?

[Philip Duncan]

I believe in all my press releases I've described it as a "sub-tropical cyclone"...and on-air have explained it's different to a Tropical Cyclone - although the end result is a similar looking storm.

Yeah I too am unsure about it being the most intense...but can't find lower air pressure recordings for northern NZ. I didn't think Bola was that deep from memory.

phillip, what were trying to say is that this is increasing confusion. people equate cyclones with tropical cyclones, so if youre going to call it a cyclone, at least call it an extra-tropical cyclone, and then explain why this is.

back on topic, what was the central pressure of cyclone Bola as it passed over NZ? i find it hard to believe that this might be the most intense storm weve ever had, ive seen my share of intense storms. it looks good, but that good?

[Philip Duncan]

The dictionary???? Which one?

COLLINS: 1. Another name for a depression. 2. A violent tropical storm.
OXFORD: 1. A system of winds rotating a calm central area. 2. a violent destructive storm.

[Nev]

Philip, yes perhaps I'm being a little pedantic but, using the term 'Tropical Cyclone' suggests that NZ get does actually get them, whereas using a more correct term like 'Ex-Tropical Cyclone' still conveys their origins without perpetuating the myth (the two are completely different beasts).

Sorry if my comment was a little harsh.

Vertigo, nothing wrong with 'cyclones'. We can still get 'mid-latitude cyclones' without them being tropical in origin.

[Philip Duncan]

Im a bit touchy - sorry! Just getting harrassed about small things! I was comparing to a Tropical Cyclone and Im very sure I never said it was one. If I did then I was wrong..but it is definitely a sub-troprical cyclone in my eyes.
Don't mind being challenged about things... but I want to work WITH you guys not against you. And Im bringing new things to weather language and some things aren't scientific...which no doubt will spark the odd debate in here.

Philip, yes perhaps I'm being a little pedantic but, using the term 'Tropical Cyclone' suggests that NZ get does actually get them, whereas using a more correct term like 'Ex-Tropical Cyclone' still conveys their origins without perpetuating the myth (the two are completely different beasts).

Sorry if my comment was a little harsh.

Vertigo, nothing wrong with 'cyclones'. We can still get 'mid-latitude cyclones' without them being tropical in origin.

[jamie]

i find it strange that MS dont have a "special weather advisory" out with this. It seems pretty special to me.

[Michael]

Some countries(in their language) call them cyclones though has slightly different spelling and theyre just plain lows.

[Paul Mallinson]

Yes, I did use the word cyclone, (in its purer sense of any rotating low pressure system), but perhaps it would have been better to just to stick to a term like 'a very deep low' to avoid confusion with Tropical Cyclones and their later evolution into extra-tropical cyclones when they get down our way.

As far as a special weather advisory goes...

i find it strange that MS dont have a "special weather advisory" out with this. It seems pretty special to me.

There really is no need for one when wind or rain warnings have been issued for pretty well all of the North Island.

On the previous page, Phillip Duncan said...
...That's the difference - I'm not a scientist and I've been asked by the public to discuss the weather in easy to understand terms...

Well I think there is a need for discussing and publicising the weather in a straight forward way and I think he does it very well, but I am disturbed by a none scientist issuing weather forecasts and warnings to the New Zealand public.

Paul

[Philip Duncan]

Thanks for the back handed compliment!

I wouldn't be concerned. We ran an accuracy test for 4 weeks of my forecasts compared to MetService...I was 30% more accurate for Auckland. In other regions we sampled I had a similar rate to them.

I doubt my company would back me if I got it wrong. Not to mention we use meteorological help from weather.com (one of the biggest weather forecaster in the world...if we need scientists we talk to them. Likewise we talk to MetService too.)

Yes, I did use the word cyclone, (in its purer sense of any rotating low pressure system), but perhaps it would have been better to just to stick to a term like 'a very deep low' to avoid confusion with Tropical Cyclones and their later evolution into extra-tropical cyclones when they get down our way.

As far as a special weather advisory goes...

i find it strange that MS dont have a "special weather advisory" out with this. It seems pretty special to me.

There really is no need for one when wind or rain warnings have been issued for pretty well all of the North Island.

On the previous page, Phillip Duncan said...
...That's the difference - I'm not a scientist and I've been asked by the public to discuss the weather in easy to understand terms...

Well I think there is a need for discussing and publicising the weather in a straight forward way and I think he does it very well, but I am disturbed by a none scientist issuing weather forecasts and warnings to the New Zealand public.

Paul

[squid]

looks like it is game on with the low expected to cross northland now take care everyone this is going to me a major storm with alot of damage the good thing is that it is fast moving and there is no blocking highs in its way

[tgsnoopy]

i find it strange that MS dont have a "special weather advisory" out with this.

I haven't received one in ages, I seem to still be subscribed, I'll bet Xtra is filtering them again

[gllitz]

i find it strange that MS dont have a "special weather advisory" out with this.

I haven't received one in ages, I seem to still be subscribed, I'll bet Xtra is filtering them again

I am on Xtra and get them just fine... not sure where else you could look...

[03Stormchaser]

I doubt my company would back me if I got it wrong. Not to mention we use meteorological help from weather.com (one of the biggest weather forecaster in the world...if we need scientists we talk to them. Likewise we talk to MetService too.)

If thats the case why doesnt every Joe Brown start up a weather company?
btw.... Just because there one of the biggest doesnt mean that they are the best.

We ran an accuracy test for 4 weeks of my forecasts compared to MetService...I was 30% more accurate for Auckland

If Metservice ran accuracy tests Im sure they would aswell find themselves better compared to your forecasts over the 4 weeks! just like blueskies would find theres better compared to the both of yours!!

[Philip Duncan]

Fair point ... and every Joe Brown CAN set up a weather company...and if they get it right and work hard who knows what they'll achieve. The Scientists laughed at Magellin when he said the world was round...he did a pretty good job in my eyes.

If being a scientist is so important then why aren't meteorologists 100% right? Because weather isn't an exact science that's why.

I'll leave you all to tear that apart now. Im off to focus on the storm.

I doubt my company would back me if I got it wrong. Not to mention we use meteorological help from weather.com (one of the biggest weather forecaster in the world...if we need scientists we talk to them. Likewise we talk to MetService too.)

If thats the case why doesnt every Joe Brown start up a weather company?
btw.... Just because there one of the biggest doesnt mean that they are the best.

We ran an accuracy test for 4 weeks of my forecasts compared to MetService...I was 30% more accurate for Auckland

If Metservice ran accuracy tests Im sure they would aswell find themselves better compared to your forecasts over the 4 weeks! just like blueskies would find theres better compared to the both of yours!!

[Philip Duncan]

Lol - and yes, I think MetService say they have a 95% accuracy rate for Auckland. We all think we're the most accurate... weather forecasting is naturally competitive and good on them for promoting their accuracy.

Hey we should have a forecasting competition...can you imagine the blood!

I doubt my company would back me if I got it wrong. Not to mention we use meteorological help from weather.com (one of the biggest weather forecaster in the world...if we need scientists we talk to them. Likewise we talk to MetService too.)

If thats the case why doesnt every Joe Brown start up a weather company?
btw.... Just because there one of the biggest doesnt mean that they are the best.

We ran an accuracy test for 4 weeks of my forecasts compared to MetService...I was 30% more accurate for Auckland

If Metservice ran accuracy tests Im sure they would aswell find themselves better compared to your forecasts over the 4 weeks! just like blueskies would find theres better compared to the both of yours!!

[Vertigo]

no need for the e-peen phil - and frankly, this discussion should be in another thread.

[Manukau heads obs]

thanks for ammending your web page Phillip, wording now much better

[Brassnz]

Regarding the incoming weather system (and with my slightly cynical hat on), perhaps we should run a sweepstake on the exact time that the Auckland rain radar crashes! As it invariably seems to in these circumstances...

[gllitz]

Can the moderators step in here, please??? Or at least have the pissing contest moved to a separate thread??

This is getting rather tiresome having to read through all this jibberish (epeen, what to call the system, who is a scientist and who isn't, etc) when I thought this thread would be about the upcoming "deep low pressure system about to affect the North Island of NZ..." and some of the meteorological aspects thereof...

I think it is still looking rather impressive...NOGAPS model showing it pretty much on top of AKL by 1800 NZST tomorrow...with pressures down to about 970hPa or so...however GFS run (based on MetVUW) has it tracking more off the coast and to the North (but not by much) will most likely be one that people will talk about for some time to come...with some of those wind barbs showing 50-55knots sustained!! 8o

The satellite runs have been pretty impressive as well...starting to show "nice" rotation to it...and this site: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... winds.html has some really neat loops and all for it, but we REALLY need someone with better knowledge to explain in layman's terms what they all mean...

[Philip Duncan]

No worries buddy!

And I agree - lets stop bickering and go back to this AMAZING storm!!

I'm in Auckland...and I can't believe this thing...I'll get photos tomorrow of the harbour.

thanks for ammending your web page Phillip, wording now much better

[Achten]

For any one that is familiar with the Clifton, Te Awanga coast line in Hawkes Bay, I reckon this storm may well claim allot more real estate. This area has had a fair bashing over recent years. I would not be surprised if 4m plus swells evntuate.